Johan Machado — OGILVIE

Johan MachadoSS DSL Marlins

Age 18 S/R 6'1" / 140 lbs ROK HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 93 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .290 / .310

PA93

HR1

SB6

K%25

BB%8

BABIP283

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$9M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.9	$9M	+$8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.0	$9M	+$8M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$8M	+$7M
2036	Arb-2	$6M	+1.9	$7M	+$5M
2037	Arb-3	$8M	+1.7	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$22M		$48M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	237	207	42	7	2	0	23	48	5	25	9	203	298	256	554	53	261	20	10	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	237	194	53	10	4	0	36	36	5	25	9	273	400	366	766	93	331	15	15	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	MIA	—	114	97	21	2	1	3	9	30	6	22	6	216	321	351	672	134	273	26	8	285	76	-3	+2	+0	+1	+3	0.3
YTD	18	ROK	MIA	—	114	92	27	3	1	4	14	21	6	22	6	293	420	478	898	185	333	18	12	396	161	+8	+2	+0	+1	+3	1.5
ROS	18	ROK	MIA	0%	93	84	18	3	1	1	7	23	2	6	1	214	290	310	600	95	279	25	8	273	67	-3	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.1
ROS	18	MLB	MIA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		275	—	—	254	52	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	MIA	—	114	98	21	2	1	3	9	30	6	22	6	214	321	347	668	133	269	26	8	285	76	-3	+2	+0	+1	+3	0.3
TOT	18	ROK	MIA	—	207	181	39	5	2	4	16	53	8	28	7	215	307	331	639	116	278	26	8	280	72	-6	+3	+0	+2	+6	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	MIA	34%	284	253	55	9	2	4	23	70	6	9	2	217	298	316	614	99	281	25	8	282	74	-8	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2028	20	MLB	MIA	48%	403	359	80	13	3	7	33	98	8	12	3	223	302	334	637	111	284	24	8	290	80	-9	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.8
2029	21	MLB	MIA	54%	492	438	98	16	3	9	41	118	10	14	3	224	305	336	640	112	285	24	8	295	84	-9	+2	+0	+5	+14	1.2
2030	22	MLB	MIA	57%	554	491	112	18	4	11	47	131	11	15	3	228	310	348	658	120	286	24	8	299	87	-8	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.5
2031	23	MLB	MIA	58%	597	529	121	20	4	12	51	141	12	15	4	229	311	350	661	121	287	24	9	301	88	-8	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.7
2032	24	MLB	MIA	57%	618	547	126	21	4	13	53	145	13	16	4	230	313	355	668	124	288	23	9	302	89	-7	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.9
2033	25	MLB	MIA	57%	628	556	128	21	4	13	54	147	13	16	4	230	313	353	666	122	288	23	9	303	90	-7	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.9
2034	26	MLB	MIA	57%	635	563	130	21	4	14	54	149	13	16	4	231	313	357	670	126	288	23	9	303	90	-7	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.0
2035	27	MLB	MIA	55%	635	562	130	21	4	14	55	149	13	16	4	231	314	358	672	126	288	23	9	303	90	-7	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.0
2036	28	MLB	MIA	55%	630	557	128	21	4	13	55	149	13	15	3	230	314	352	665	122	287	24	9	302	90	-7	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.9
2037	29	MLB	MIA	53%	620	547	125	20	4	13	55	148	13	14	3	229	314	351	665	122	287	24	9	301	88	-8	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.7
2038	30	MLB	MIA	57%	609	538	122	20	4	12	54	147	12	14	3	227	311	346	657	119	286	24	9	298	86	-9	+2	-2	+7	+17	1.4
2039	31	MLB	MIA	60%	595	525	117	19	4	11	53	145	12	13	3	223	308	337	646	114	284	24	9	294	83	-11	+1	-3	+6	+17	1.1
2040	32	MLB	MIA	61%	576	509	112	18	4	10	51	143	11	12	3	220	305	330	635	110	281	25	9	289	79	-13	+1	-4	+6	+16	0.7
2041	33	MLB	MIA	62%	546	482	103	16	3	9	48	138	11	11	2	214	299	315	615	102	277	25	9	283	75	-16	+1	-4	+6	+15	0.3
2042	34	MLB	MIA	58%	499	443	92	14	3	8	43	129	10	9	2	208	292	307	599	99	272	26	9	275	69	-18	+1	-5	+5	+14	-0.2
2027	19	MLB	MIA	34%	98	88	19	3	1	1	8	24	2	3	1	216	296	307	603	91	277	24	8	264	60	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	MIA	48%	195	173	37	6	1	3	16	47	4	6	1	214	295	312	607	98	279	24	8	271	66	-8	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.1
2029	21	MLB	MIA	54%	267	238	53	9	2	5	22	64	5	7	2	223	302	340	642	118	281	24	8	276	70	-9	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2030	22	MLB	MIA	57%	314	278	62	10	2	6	27	74	6	8	2	223	305	338	644	115	282	24	9	280	72	-10	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2031	23	MLB	MIA	58%	344	305	68	11	2	7	29	81	7	9	2	223	305	341	646	118	282	24	8	282	74	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.4
2032	24	MLB	MIA	57%	352	312	71	12	2	7	30	83	7	9	2	228	309	346	656	119	283	24	9	283	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB	MIA	57%	356	316	72	12	3	7	30	83	7	9	2	228	309	351	660	123	283	23	8	284	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2034	26	MLB	MIA	57%	359	318	73	12	3	7	31	84	7	9	2	230	312	352	664	123	283	23	9	284	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2035	27	MLB	MIA	55%	352	311	69	11	2	7	31	83	7	9	2	222	307	338	644	116	283	24	9	284	76	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2036	28	MLB	MIA	55%	346	306	68	11	2	7	30	82	7	8	2	222	306	340	646	118	282	24	9	283	75	-10	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.4
2037	29	MLB	MIA	53%	332	293	66	11	2	7	29	79	7	8	2	225	310	348	658	123	282	24	9	282	74	-10	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.3
2038	30	MLB	MIA	57%	348	307	68	11	2	7	31	84	7	8	2	221	307	339	646	117	281	24	9	279	72	-11	+1	-1	+4	+10	0.2
2039	31	MLB	MIA	60%	355	314	69	11	2	7	31	87	7	8	2	220	304	334	638	115	279	25	9	276	69	-12	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.1
2040	32	MLB	MIA	61%	353	312	67	11	2	6	31	87	7	7	2	215	300	321	621	106	276	25	9	271	65	-14	+1	-2	+4	+10	-0.2
2041	33	MLB	MIA	62%	341	301	64	10	2	6	30	86	7	7	2	213	299	319	618	106	273	25	9	265	61	-15	+1	-3	+4	+10	-0.4
2042	34	MLB	MIA	58%	289	256	52	8	2	4	25	75	6	5	1	203	289	297	586	94	268	26	9	257	55	-15	+1	-3	+3	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5001	4429	978	159	32	94	431	1203	100	120	29	221	304	335	639	114	280	24	9	277	70	-168	+12	-12	+54	+142	2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	127	21	4	12	56	156	13	16	4	220	304	333	638	113	279	24	9	277	70	-22	+2	-2	+7	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	9251	8190	1839	298	61	174	800	2218	188	248	60	225	308	340	648	115	285	24	9	295	84	-169	+26	-20	+99	+262	20.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	129	21	4	12	56	156	13	17	4	224	307	337	644	113	285	24	9	295	84	-12	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	237	194	53	10	4	0	36	36	5	25	9	273	400	366	766	93	331	15	15	352	127	+7	+1	—	—	+7	1.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#2Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	5,207	100	125	226	306	343	+54	+30	11.6	9.5
	/162	664	13	16	226	306	343	+6.9	+3.8	1.5	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johan Machado (OGILVIE)	18	45	20	60	55	215/307/331	116	278	4	28	26%	8%	72	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Barahona 2012 · A	18	46	36→30	53→50	48	216/284/286	70	285	3	14	24%	8%	59	-1.1	206/260/268	62	282	2	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	200/252/254	54	273	0	16	25%	6%	33	-1.0
✕Luis Arcendo 2018 · A	18	44	36→30	54→50	46	209/274/278	69	274	3	13	24%	7%	53	-1.5	196/257/259	63	280	3	13	29%	7%	40	-2.4	115/183/136	21	170	0	19	30%	8%	-22	-1.3
✕Jodaneli Carvajal 2010 · A	18	43	38→30	62→55	43	207/259/290	83	274	4	20	25%	6%	50	-1.8	213/265/278	65	272	2	17	21%	6%	48	-1.9	212/263/268	56	267	2	18	20%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Leo Rivas 2016 · A	18	44→54	37→40	52→65	44	204/291/284	80	291	3	16	28%	8%	63	-0.8	208/298/281	73	293	3	17	27%	10%	65	-0.7	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
✕Emmanuel Morel 2016 · A	19	45	35→30	53→55	49	207/286/270	62	293	2	17	28%	9%	56	-1.3	187/257/246	59	306	2	15	36%	8%	38	-2.6	139/207/173	34	251	0	17	41%	7%	-4	-1.2
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→46	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	49	-1.8	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	59	-1.1	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Jaison Chourio 2023 · A	18	48→49	38→40	54→55	58	220/315/308	87	276	3	15	20%	12%	79	+0.3	223/313/311	88	314	5	21	27%	11%	79	+0.3	222/315/321	99	301	8	23	26%	12%	81	+0.2
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→30	54→50	47	207/264/281	74	251	3	14	19%	6%	50	-1.8	245/295/318	73	283	3	14	14%	5%	72	-0.2	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Olvy Marte 2013 · A	18	46	36→40	49→55	44	213/288/277	65	286	3	18	25%	7%	59	-1.1	220/281/292	72	293	2	16	24%	6%	59	-1.1	224/283/295	71	296	1	19	23%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Julio Izturis 2008 · A	18	44	33→30	54→60	48	202/278/241	39	250	1	24	19%	7%	46	-2.0	223/311/283	60	279	3	21	19%	9%	71	-0.3	234/339/288	54	291	3	28	18%	11%	81	+0.1
✕Jilbert Rosario 2014 · A	19	46	36→30	52→55	46	216/291/285	69	292	3	15	25%	8%	63	-0.9	221/290/273	52	289	2	19	22%	8%	58	-1.2	225/295/260	35	292	0	25	21%	7%	54	-0.5
✕Carlos Willoughby 2008 · A	19	48→42	36→40	53→60	49	225/302/290	65	279	3	17	19%	7%	69	-0.4	231/314/298	67	298	2	28	21%	9%	76	+0.0	235/320/307	72	303	1	35	20%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Francisco Aponte 2009 · A	18	43	36→30	49→60	46	205/268/268	64	265	4	9	23%	7%	48	-1.9	230/305/289	59	291	2	17	20%	8%	69	-0.4	221/287/267	45	270	0	22	16%	8%	54	-0.5
✕Yonny Hernández 2017 · A	19	47→57	34→30	53→60	52	216/292/271	55	261	1	19	16%	8%	59	-1.1	225/304/282	57	280	1	24	18%	9%	67	-0.5	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Jorge Minyety 2010 · A	19	46	35→30	50	55	208/299/269	61	275	1	14	22%	11%	63	-0.9	216/285/281	65	304	2	9	27%	9%	59	-1.1	227/294/263	36	322	0	4	27%	9%	53	-0.3
●Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→50	58→50	55	210/300/285	75	268	4	16	22%	11%	66	-0.6	232/290/328	96	308	7	11	25%	7%	72	-0.2	264/318/398	134	323	11	13	21%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Michael Chirinos 2018 · A	18	41	37→40	51→55	50	193/251/266	73	225	4	11	16%	7%	40	-2.4	226/292/296	70	250	5	13	11%	8%	65	-0.7	236/307/298	61	253	5	16	8%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Hendry Jimenez 2009 · A	19	46	37→40	54→50	48	216/278/292	76	274	4	16	22%	7%	58	-1.2	231/298/311	80	292	4	13	21%	8%	72	-0.2	211/269/286	75	269	4	10	22%	6%	50	-0.6
✕Alvaro Montero 2018 · A	18	48	35→30	52→60	54	219/315/281	62	294	3	16	24%	11%	72	-0.2	215/296/270	55	306	2	18	27%	9%	61	-1.0	232/319/263	31	312	0	30	23%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Yamal Encarnacion 2022 · A	18	44	37→40	51→60	47	207/271/285	78	273	4	13	24%	8%	53	-1.5	203/264/264	61	272	3	17	25%	7%	45	-2.1	209/272/286	76	273	6	45	24%	8%	51	-0.8