Johan Machado — OGILVIE

Johan MachadoSS DSL Marlins

Age 18 S/R 6'1" / 140 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION220 act + 20 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .300 / .278

PA20

HR0

K%25

BB%10

BABIP266

ISO56

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$56M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2036	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$4M	+$1M
2037	Arb-3	$11M	+1.0	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$17M		$29M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	237	194	53	10	4	0	36	36	5	25	9	273	400	366	766	93	331	15	15	352	124	+7	+1	—	—	+5	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	237	207	42	7	3	0	23	50	5	25	9	203	298	266	564	63	258	21	10	254	58	-12	+1	—	—	+5	-0.5
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	237	207	42	7	3	0	23	50	5	25	9	203	298	266	564	63	264	21	10	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	237	194	53	10	4	0	36	36	5	25	9	273	400	366	766	93	331	15	15	352	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	237	207	42	7	3	0	23	50	5	25	9	203	298	266	564	63	258	21	10	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	237	207	42	7	3	0	23	50	5	25	9	203	298	266	564	63	258	21	10	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	MIA	—	220	190	41	5	2	8	19	56	9	33	9	216	317	389	706	174	258	25	9	306	93	-2	+3	+0	+2	+5	0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	MIA	—	220	178	55	8	3	10	31	39	9	33	9	309	436	556	992	247	344	18	14	432	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	MIA	0%	20	18	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	222	300	278	578	56	273	25	10	287	80	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	MIA	—	240	208	45	6	2	8	21	61	9	34	9	216	315	380	695	163	262	25	9	304	92	-2	+3	+0	+3	+5	0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	286	253	56	9	2	6	25	68	6	10	3	221	306	344	650	123	278	24	9	295	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	404	358	81	14	3	9	35	95	8	12	3	226	309	358	667	131	281	24	9	302	90	-5	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	493	437	101	17	4	12	43	114	10	14	4	231	314	371	685	140	282	23	9	306	94	-4	+1	+0	+5	+11	1.4
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	554	489	113	19	4	14	49	127	11	15	4	231	315	372	687	141	283	23	9	310	96	-3	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.7
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIA	58%	597	527	124	21	5	15	53	136	12	16	4	235	319	380	699	144	284	23	9	312	97	-2	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.9
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	618	545	129	22	5	16	55	140	13	16	4	237	321	383	705	147	285	23	9	314	98	-1	+2	+0	+7	+13	2.1
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	628	554	130	22	5	16	56	142	13	16	4	235	319	379	698	144	285	23	9	314	99	-1	+2	+0	+7	+14	2.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	635	560	131	22	5	16	57	144	13	16	4	234	319	377	696	143	285	23	9	315	99	-1	+2	+0	+7	+14	2.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	635	559	131	22	5	16	58	144	13	16	4	234	321	377	698	143	285	23	9	315	99	-1	+2	+0	+7	+14	2.2
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	630	554	130	22	5	16	58	144	13	15	4	235	322	379	701	144	284	23	9	314	99	-1	+1	-1	+7	+14	2.0
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	620	545	127	21	5	16	57	143	13	14	4	233	320	378	698	145	284	23	9	312	97	-2	+1	-1	+7	+13	1.8
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	609	535	123	21	4	15	56	142	13	14	3	230	318	368	686	138	283	23	9	310	96	-3	+2	-2	+7	+13	1.6
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIA	60%	595	523	119	20	4	14	55	140	12	13	3	228	315	361	677	134	281	24	9	306	93	-5	+1	-3	+6	+13	1.3
2040	32	MLB MLE	MIA	61%	576	506	113	19	4	13	53	138	12	12	3	223	312	354	665	130	278	24	9	301	90	-7	+1	-4	+6	+12	0.9
2041	33	MLB MLE	MIA	62%	546	480	106	17	4	12	50	134	11	11	3	221	309	348	657	127	274	25	9	294	85	-10	+1	-4	+6	+12	0.5
2042	34	MLB MLE	MIA	58%	499	441	92	14	3	10	45	125	10	9	2	209	296	322	618	113	269	25	9	286	80	-12	+1	-5	+5	+11	0.0
2027	19	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	98	88	19	3	1	2	8	23	2	3	1	216	296	341	637	125	271	23	8	273	86	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	196	173	38	6	2	4	17	46	4	6	2	220	304	347	651	127	273	23	9	279	90	-2	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.5
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	267	237	53	9	2	6	23	62	5	8	2	224	306	354	660	131	275	23	9	284	94	-2	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	314	277	62	10	2	7	28	72	6	8	2	224	309	350	659	126	276	23	9	287	96	-2	+1	+0	+3	+7	1.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIA	58%	344	303	69	11	3	8	31	78	7	9	2	228	314	363	677	135	276	23	9	289	97	-1	+1	+0	+4	+7	1.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	352	311	71	12	3	8	31	80	7	9	2	228	312	363	676	135	277	23	9	291	98	-1	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	356	314	73	12	3	9	32	80	7	9	2	232	317	376	693	143	277	22	9	291	99	-0	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	359	317	73	12	3	9	32	81	7	9	2	230	315	372	687	142	277	23	9	292	99	-0	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	352	310	71	11	3	9	32	80	7	9	2	229	315	371	686	142	277	23	9	292	99	-0	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	346	304	69	11	3	8	32	79	7	8	2	227	315	362	677	135	277	23	9	291	99	-1	+1	-0	+4	+7	1.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	332	291	66	11	2	8	31	76	7	8	2	227	316	361	677	134	276	23	9	289	97	-1	+1	-1	+4	+7	1.0
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	348	306	68	11	2	8	32	81	7	8	2	222	310	350	660	127	275	23	9	287	96	-2	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.9
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIA	60%	355	312	68	11	2	8	33	84	7	8	2	218	307	343	650	125	273	24	9	283	93	-3	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.8
2040	32	MLB CTX	MIA	61%	353	311	68	11	2	8	32	85	7	7	2	219	306	344	650	125	270	24	9	279	90	-4	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.6
2041	33	MLB CTX	MIA	62%	341	300	64	10	2	7	31	83	7	7	2	213	302	330	632	117	267	24	9	273	85	-6	+1	-3	+4	+7	0.3
2042	34	MLB CTX	MIA	58%	289	255	53	8	2	6	26	73	6	5	1	208	296	325	622	118	262	25	9	265	80	-7	+1	-3	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5002	4409	985	159	37	115	451	1163	100	121	30	223	310	355	664	131	275	23	9	285	93	-34	+12	-12	+54	+108	13.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	129	21	5	15	59	151	13	16	4	225	312	358	670	133	277	23	9	285	93	-4	+2	-2	+7	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	9182	8091	1852	310	70	216	830	2131	188	245	65	229	315	365	680	136	283	23	9	306	93	-62	+22	-20	+96	+194	23.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	131	22	5	15	59	151	13	17	5	229	315	363	678	134	283	23	9	306	93	-4	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	8.5	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
/162	664	18	5	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#2Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
/162	664	17	9	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.8	5,210	123	126	230	312	366	+54	+30	17.0	13.4
/162	664	16	16	+6.9	+3.8	2.2	pk7: 10
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johan Machado (OGILVIE)	18	45	20	60	55	213/298/327	114	273	4	15	24%	8%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→45	59→50	55	210/300/285	75	272	4	16	22%	11%	70	-0.8	230/288/322	92	306	6	11	25%	7%	74	-0.6	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Leo Rivas 2016 · A	18	44→54	37→40	52→65	44	204/291/284	80	291	3	16	28%	8%	68	-1.0	208/298/282	74	292	3	17	27%	10%	69	-0.9	241/356/333	92	321	9	44	24%	14%	102	+1.0
✕Jaison Chourio 2023 · A	18	47→51	38→40	54→55	58	220/315/307	86	277	4	15	20%	12%	81	-0.1	224/315/307	83	317	4	21	27%	12%	81	-0.1	223/313/312	89	304	7	28	26%	11%	80	-0.1
✕Luis Barahona 2012 · A	18	46	36→30	53→50	48	216/284/286	70	285	3	14	24%	8%	64	-1.3	206/260/268	62	282	2	13	26%	6%	50	-2.3	200/252/254	54	273	0	16	25%	6%	41	-1.1
✕Alvaro Montero 2018 · A	18	48	35→30	52→60	54	219/315/281	62	294	3	16	24%	11%	76	-0.4	215/296/270	55	306	2	18	27%	9%	65	-1.2	232/319/263	31	312	0	30	23%	9%	71	-0.4
✕Carlos Willoughby 2008 · A	19	48→44	36→40	53→60	49	225/302/290	65	279	3	17	19%	7%	72	-0.7	231/314/298	67	298	2	28	21%	9%	78	-0.3	235/320/307	72	303	1	35	20%	9%	80	-0.0
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→45	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	55	-2.0	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	56→60	50	245/307/319	74	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	250/296/311	61	297	1	19	15%	6%	73	-0.6	302/361/382	79	347	4	36	13%	8%	110	+1.8
✕Jodaneli Carvajal 2010 · A	18	43	38→30	62→55	43	207/259/290	83	274	4	20	25%	6%	55	-1.9	213/265/278	65	273	2	17	21%	6%	54	-2.0	213/263/269	56	268	2	18	20%	5%	49	-0.8
✕Olvy Marte 2013 · A	18	46	36→40	49→55	44	213/288/277	65	286	3	18	25%	7%	64	-1.3	220/281/292	72	293	2	16	24%	6%	64	-1.3	224/283/295	71	296	1	19	23%	6%	63	-0.5
✕Miguel Chacoa 2008 · A	19	51	38→30	52→50	47	238/298/316	77	309	5	17	24%	7%	76	-0.4	235/296/294	59	278	3	14	15%	7%	70	-0.8	241/304/284	43	277	1	17	12%	7%	67	-0.4
●Geraldo Perdomo 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→55	55	213/301/277	64	275	3	17	22%	11%	69	-0.9	218/303/296	78	282	4	15	22%	9%	74	-0.5	257/357/385	127	281	12	19	12%	12%	112	+2.1
✕Emmanuel Morel 2016 · A	19	45	35→30	53→55	49	207/286/270	62	293	2	17	28%	9%	61	-1.5	187/257/246	59	306	2	15	36%	8%	45	-2.7	139/207/173	34	251	0	17	41%	7%	8	-1.1
✕Luis Arcendo 2018 · A	18	44	36→30	54→50	46	209/274/278	69	274	3	13	24%	7%	58	-1.7	196/257/259	63	280	3	13	29%	7%	47	-2.5	115/183/136	21	170	0	19	30%	8%	-8	-1.2
✕Luis Durango 2022 · A	19	49	38→30	54→65	43	230/293/302	72	309	5	25	26%	6%	72	-0.7	209/284/263	54	281	2	28	24%	7%	59	-1.6	251/307/296	45	331	0	54	22%	4%	70	-0.3
✕Julio Izturis 2009 · A	19	47	34→30	55→60	55	215/311/263	48	261	2	25	17%	10%	70	-0.8	226/302/298	72	296	4	17	23%	8%	74	-0.6	242/304/298	57	323	4	23	25%	6%	74	-0.1
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	51→55	40→45	53→55	43	244/293/346	101	299	6	14	20%	5%	80	-0.1	238/292/336	98	305	7	14	23%	6%	78	-0.3	255/308/363	108	313	9	21	21%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Victor Acosta 2022 · A	18	44→43	42→40	55→50	46	211/298/321	110	292	8	20	28%	8%	78	-0.3	192/276/278	86	281	5	12	31%	8%	61	-1.5	177/263/251	74	256	4	13	29%	7%	47	-1.3
✕Carlos Pulido 2016 · A	18	47	35→30	51→30	43	215/288/278	63	298	2	8	27%	7%	64	-1.3	209/285/267	58	259	2	4	19%	7%	61	-1.5	218/303/262	44	251	2	1	13%	8%	66	-0.5
✕Carlos Arroyo 2019 · A	18	50	35→30	50	51	231/310/281	51	284	3	13	19%	8%	74	-0.6	221/279/288	67	257	4	15	15%	6%	63	-1.4	183/236/245	62	242	4	19	25%	4%	36	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps