Johan Machado

SS DSL Marlins

Age 19 S/R 6'1" / 140 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#874ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Miami	237	.273/.400/.366	0	25	47	—	.176/.285/.225
2026	18	ROKMIA	220	.309/.436/.556	10	33	65	—	.187/.303/.316
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBMIA	330	.213/.289/.300	3	9	69	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBMIA	57	.211/.288/.302	1	2	74	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBMIA	134	.215/.293/.314	2	4	79	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed97

ISO92

wOBA89

Whiff%87

wRC+85

Chase%82

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsLuis Lara (age 19) · Jeremy Arocho (age 19) · Cristofer Torin (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 117 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .286 / .298

PA117

HR1

K%24

BB%8

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	237	194	53	10	4	0	36	36	5	25	9	273	400	366	766	93	331	15	15	352	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	220	178	55	8	3	10	31	39	9	33	9	309	436	556	992	247	344	18	14	432	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	237	204	36	6	2	0	26	42	5	25	9	176	285	225	511	49	216	18	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	220	187	35	5	2	5	22	48	9	33	9	187	303	316	618	128	206	22	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	237	204	36	6	2	0	26	42	5	25	9	176	285	225	511	49	220	18	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	237	194	53	10	4	0	36	36	5	25	9	273	400	366	766	93	331	15	15	352	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	220	187	35	5	2	5	22	48	9	33	9	187	303	316	618	128	221	22	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	220	178	55	8	3	10	31	39	9	33	9	309	436	556	992	247	344	18	14	432	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	237	204	36	6	2	0	26	42	5	25	9	176	285	225	511	49	216	18	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	220	187	35	5	2	5	22	48	9	33	9	187	303	316	618	128	206	22	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	237	204	36	6	2	0	26	42	5	25	9	176	285	225	511	49	216	18	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	220	187	35	5	2	5	22	48	9	33	9	187	303	316	618	128	206	22	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	330	296	63	11	3	3	27	80	4	9	2	213	289	300	589	87	278	24	8	270	69	-12	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	166	149	31	5	1	2	14	40	2	4	1	218	295	316	610	98	280	24	8	278	74	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	276	247	54	9	2	4	23	65	4	7	2	222	299	328	627	106	282	24	8	285	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	381	340	76	13	3	6	32	89	6	10	2	225	302	338	639	113	283	23	8	290	82	-8	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	448	400	91	15	4	8	38	104	7	11	2	227	304	345	649	118	284	23	8	293	85	-8	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.8
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	489	438	100	17	4	9	41	113	7	12	3	229	306	351	657	121	285	23	8	296	87	-8	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	515	459	105	18	4	10	44	119	7	13	3	229	306	352	658	122	285	23	9	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	527	469	107	18	4	10	45	122	8	13	3	229	306	352	658	122	285	23	9	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	530	473	107	18	4	10	45	123	7	13	3	228	305	349	654	121	285	23	8	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.0
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	526	469	107	18	4	10	45	124	7	12	3	227	303	345	648	118	284	24	9	293	84	-10	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.8
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	515	460	103	17	4	9	43	123	7	11	3	224	301	339	639	114	283	24	8	289	82	-11	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	502	448	100	17	4	8	42	121	7	10	3	221	297	331	629	110	281	24	8	285	79	-13	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIA	60%	486	437	96	16	4	8	40	119	6	8	3	218	293	322	615	104	279	24	8	279	75	-14	+0	-3	+5	+11	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	57	51	11	2	0	1	5	14	1	2	0	211	288	302	591	91	271	25	9	270	74	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	134	120	26	4	1	2	11	32	2	4	1	215	293	314	607	99	273	24	8	277	79	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	207	185	40	6	2	3	17	48	3	5	1	218	296	323	619	105	274	23	8	281	82	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	254	227	50	8	2	4	21	59	4	6	1	220	298	330	628	110	275	23	8	285	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	276	247	55	9	2	5	23	64	4	7	1	222	299	335	635	114	276	23	8	288	87	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	291	260	57	9	2	5	25	67	4	7	2	222	300	336	636	114	276	23	9	288	87	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	298	267	58	9	2	5	25	69	4	7	2	222	300	336	636	114	276	23	8	288	87	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	294	263	57	9	2	5	25	68	4	7	2	221	299	334	633	113	276	23	9	287	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	289	259	56	9	2	5	24	68	4	6	1	219	297	330	627	110	275	24	8	284	84	-5	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	275	246	54	9	2	5	23	65	4	6	1	217	294	324	618	107	274	24	8	281	82	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	287	257	56	9	2	5	24	69	4	6	2	214	291	317	608	103	273	24	8	277	79	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIA	60%	290	260	55	9	2	4	24	71	4	5	2	211	287	308	595	98	270	24	8	271	75	-9	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2952	2642	575	92	21	49	247	694	42	68	16	218	295	324	619	106	275	24	8	283	81	-60	+7	-4	+32	+64	4.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	127	20	5	11	54	153	9	15	4	218	294	326	621	108	276	24	8	283	81	-13	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5935	5284	1170	196	47	100	510	1380	91	185	50	221	301	333	634	112	279	23	9	287	81	-113	+13	-7	+59	+119	7.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	128	21	5	11	56	151	10	20	5	221	301	332	633	111	278	23	9	287	81	-13	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Marlins · 220 PAwOBA .424 → .265 (−159)K% 17.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.73%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.09%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	9.81%
HBP% /PA	4.09%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	2.85%
Singles /BIP	24.46%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.950	×0.995	15.72%
Doubles /BIP	5.76%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	3.26%
Triples /BIP	2.16%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	7.19%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	3.36%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .424 → .265; ISO .247 → .128; BABIP .344 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Miami · 237 PAwOBA .347 → .238 (−108)K% 15.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.19%	÷1.040	×1.220	—	—	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.19%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.008	10.95%
HBP% /PA	2.11%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.49%
Singles /BIP	24.68%	÷0.978	×0.680	×0.976	×1.008	16.87%
Doubles /BIP	6.33%	÷1.026	×0.600	×0.976	×1.008	3.64%
Triples /BIP	2.53%	÷1.088	×0.600	×0.976	×1.008	1.37%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.423	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 185, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 118, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .347 → .238; ISO .093 → .054; BABIP .331 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.6	3,067	54	71	226	299	341	+33	+21	6.3	5.6
/162	664	12	15	+7.1	+4.5	1.4	pk7: 5
#6Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johan Machado (OGILVIE)	19	45	20	60	55	211/286/298	87	278	1	3	24%	8%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Lara 2024 · A	19	46→56	36→40	52→60	49	218/283/285	67	271	3	18	20%	7%	63	-1.3	235/308/311	76	297	4	28	21%	8%	79	-0.2	245/323/325	80	308	5	31	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→44	38→30	53→60	41	204/261/287	83	286	4	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	223/282/290	67	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	230/324/274	45	312	0	26	23%	11%	74	-0.3
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Jaison Chourio 2024 · A	19	49→55	36→40	55	55	224/319/299	75	316	2	18	27%	12%	80	-0.1	232/327/322	90	320	6	23	26%	12%	88	+0.5	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
✕Ricardo Ferreira 2015 · A	20	46	36→30	55→60	54	207/312/275	67	298	3	21	28%	12%	74	-0.6	231/313/303	72	312	3	22	24%	10%	79	-0.2	242/324/311	68	323	3	29	23%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Yonny Hernández 2017 · A	19	44→54	34→30	53→60	55	197/283/248	51	232	1	19	14%	9%	56	-1.9	222/305/277	55	273	1	24	17%	9%	70	-0.8	266/328/324	58	317	2	17	16%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Leo Rivas 2017 · A	19	44→54	36→40	54→65	49	204/291/273	69	274	2	21	24%	9%	65	-1.2	201/291/278	77	291	4	13	29%	10%	65	-1.2	244/357/336	92	322	8	44	24%	14%	103	+1.0
✕Jose Escobar 2024 · A	19	46→56	39→40	55→45	42	220/276/306	85	277	6	14	22%	5%	65	-1.2	227/297/326	99	296	8	9	24%	7%	78	-0.3	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jansel Luis 2024 · A	19	44→54	41→45	53→55	41	216/268/318	101	271	9	14	23%	5%	65	-1.2	239/284/354	115	319	8	16	26%	5%	79	-0.2	249/291/371	122	332	9	19	27%	4%	83	+0.1
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	50→57	40→45	53→55	44	237/287/335	98	286	6	14	19%	5%	76	-0.4	245/302/345	100	311	7	14	22%	7%	84	+0.1	265/318/375	110	323	9	22	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Luis Durango 2022 · A	19	50	38→30	54→70	43	233/296/306	73	313	5	25	26%	6%	74	-0.6	213/291/269	56	284	2	28	24%	7%	63	-1.3	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Jorge Barrosa 2021 · A	20	46→52	38→45	55	45	218/283/303	84	283	5	18	24%	6%	68	-1.0	233/297/347	114	294	9	19	23%	7%	83	+0.1	234/307/360	127	282	11	18	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Cole Miles 2007 · A	20	49→52	37→30	57→55	51	228/307/306	77	293	4	19	22%	9%	78	-0.3	236/285/296	60	294	3	15	19%	6%	65	-1.2	238/283/292	53	295	3	15	19%	5%	60	-1.1
✕Johnny Ascanio 2022 · A	19	48	36→40	50→45	50	221/309/292	71	287	2	15	22%	8%	76	-0.4	212/277/284	72	291	4	10	26%	7%	61	-1.5	209/293/268	60	273	4	7	23%	9%	62	-0.8
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→55	37→40	55→45	52	229/297/306	77	281	3	16	19%	9%	73	-0.6	243/304/333	90	311	4	9	22%	7%	82	-0.0	249/308/338	89	311	4	8	20%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Juan Brito 2021 · A	19	45→50	39→50	53→45	49	213/277/301	88	254	6	13	18%	7%	65	-1.2	229/306/349	120	287	11	10	22%	9%	87	+0.4	231/317/370	139	276	13	9	20%	10%	94	+0.8
✕Jesus Galindo 2010 · A	19	42→50	34→30	55→65	51	192/290/246	54	275	1	19	28%	10%	59	-1.6	200/284/251	51	263	1	32	22%	9%	57	-1.8	233/284/297	64	318	2	38	25%	5%	63	-0.8
✕Leandro Arias 2024 · A	19	40→45	39→40	53→45	48	194/267/279	85	248	6	14	23%	8%	57	-1.8	205/275/282	77	269	6	8	24%	8%	61	-1.5	203/277/274	71	268	6	8	25%	8%	58	-1.1
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	194/267/288	94	272	9	17	30%	8%	59	-1.6	221/287/321	100	309	7	21	28%	8%	73	-0.6	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Cole Tucker 2015 · A	19	45→51	37→45	50→55	45	212/276/286	75	285	5	13	26%	7%	61	-1.5	233/279/311	78	310	4	18	24%	6%	67	-1.1	230/292/338	108	300	7	25	24%	7%	77	-0.3

Johan Machado

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps