Johnny Ascanio
SS Chattanooga Lookouts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 446 | .223/.306/.301 | 4 | 13 | 47 | — | .197/.267/.254 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+CIN | 322 | .221/.358/.318 | 4 | 3 | 66 | — | .211/.313/.293 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+CIN | 262 | .270/.391/.326 | 1 | 3 | 82 | — | .253/.349/.302 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCIN | 3 | .193/.287/.256 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBCIN | 61 | .199/.292/.277 | 1 | 1 | 65 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBCIN | 112 | .203/.295/.291 | 2 | 1 | 69 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 141 | 111 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 333 | 464 | 432 | 896 | 99 | 407 | 16 | 13 | 402 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 54 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 315 | 229 | 544 | 297 | 20 | 11 | 262 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 71 | 61 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 344 | 429 | 459 | 888 | 115 | 477 | 25 | 11 | 393 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 240 | 212 | 54 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 255 | 331 | 392 | 722 | 137 | 309 | 20 | 10 | 320 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 68 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 218 | 348 | 273 | 621 | 55 | 262 | 18 | 15 | 290 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 289 | 250 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 45 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 220 | 301 | 300 | 601 | 80 | 251 | 16 | 8 | 270 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 89 | 81 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 235 | 287 | 321 | 608 | 86 | 284 | 16 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 47 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 217 | 146 | 364 | 24 | 179 | 30 | 11 | 179 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 275 | 217 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 44 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 240 | 382 | 350 | 732 | 111 | 281 | 16 | 15 | 332 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 140 | 115 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 322 | 435 | 383 | 817 | 61 | 419 | 20 | 14 | 374 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 122 | 100 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 342 | 260 | 602 | 50 | 276 | 20 | 12 | 287 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 141 | 116 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 233 | 355 | 293 | 648 | 60 | 280 | 19 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 54 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 259 | 200 | 459 | 281 | 28 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 71 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 234 | 300 | 297 | 597 | 62 | 374 | 37 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 240 | 219 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 267 | 311 | 577 | 100 | 272 | 27 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 68 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 207 | 303 | 259 | 562 | 52 | 247 | 22 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 289 | 257 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 62 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 195 | 258 | 253 | 511 | 58 | 231 | 21 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 47 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 174 | 140 | 313 | 23 | 173 | 36 | 6 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 275 | 229 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 56 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 227 | 337 | 319 | 656 | 92 | 268 | 20 | 11 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 140 | 121 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 314 | 399 | 372 | 770 | 58 | 414 | 24 | 9 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 122 | 104 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 292 | 221 | 513 | 38 | 254 | 26 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 141 | 116 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 233 | 355 | 293 | 648 | 60 | 297 | 19 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 141 | 111 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 333 | 464 | 432 | 896 | 99 | 407 | 16 | 13 | 402 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 125 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 282 | 254 | 537 | 35 | 333 | 32 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 125 | 109 | 32 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 294 | 379 | 358 | 737 | 64 | 395 | 23 | 11 | 336 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 240 | 219 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 267 | 311 | 577 | 100 | 281 | 27 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | Daytona Tortugas | — | 240 | 212 | 54 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 255 | 331 | 392 | 722 | 137 | 309 | 20 | 10 | 320 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 446 | 394 | 78 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 96 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 198 | 269 | 256 | 525 | 58 | 247 | 22 | 7 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 446 | 386 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 71 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 223 | 306 | 301 | 606 | 78 | 259 | 16 | 9 | 273 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 272 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 73 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 210 | 313 | 290 | 604 | 81 | 271 | 23 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 322 | 258 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 58 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 221 | 358 | 318 | 676 | 97 | 266 | 18 | 15 | 310 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 225 | 57 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 66 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 253 | 349 | 302 | 651 | 49 | 352 | 25 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 262 | 215 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 270 | 391 | 326 | 717 | 56 | 352 | 20 | 13 | 334 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 141 | 118 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 229 | 355 | 288 | 643 | 59 | 280 | 19 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 125 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 282 | 254 | 537 | 35 | 334 | 32 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 240 | 221 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 267 | 308 | 575 | 100 | 272 | 27 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 446 | 405 | 78 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 96 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 193 | 269 | 249 | 518 | 57 | 234 | 22 | 7 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 278 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 73 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 205 | 313 | 284 | 597 | 79 | 254 | 23 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 227 | 57 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 66 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 251 | 349 | 300 | 648 | 48 | 339 | 25 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 446 | 405 | 78 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 96 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 193 | 269 | 249 | 518 | 57 | 234 | 22 | 7 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 278 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 73 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 205 | 313 | 284 | 597 | 79 | 254 | 23 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 227 | 57 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 66 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 251 | 349 | 300 | 648 | 48 | 339 | 25 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CIN | 2% | 312 | 273 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 71 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 192 | 287 | 254 | 540 | 61 | 249 | 23 | 9 | 255 | 58 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | CIN | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 287 | 256 | 543 | 63 | 250 | 33 | 0 | 256 | 58 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CIN | 31% | 196 | 172 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 45 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 291 | 273 | 564 | 75 | 252 | 23 | 9 | 264 | 65 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | CIN | 45% | 251 | 220 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 57 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 294 | 286 | 580 | 85 | 254 | 23 | 10 | 269 | 69 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 49% | 279 | 245 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 64 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 294 | 290 | 585 | 87 | 256 | 23 | 9 | 271 | 69 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 52% | 295 | 259 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 68 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 294 | 292 | 586 | 88 | 257 | 23 | 9 | 271 | 70 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 52% | 296 | 262 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 69 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 293 | 292 | 584 | 88 | 257 | 23 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -11 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | CIN | 52% | 294 | 260 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 69 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 201 | 289 | 284 | 573 | 84 | 256 | 23 | 9 | 266 | 66 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CIN | 31% | 61 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 292 | 277 | 569 | 78 | 253 | 23 | 10 | 265 | 65 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | CIN | 45% | 112 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 295 | 291 | 586 | 88 | 255 | 22 | 10 | 272 | 69 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 49% | 137 | 120 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 296 | 295 | 591 | 90 | 256 | 23 | 9 | 273 | 69 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 52% | 152 | 134 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 295 | 297 | 592 | 92 | 257 | 23 | 9 | 273 | 70 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 52% | 153 | 135 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 294 | 297 | 590 | 92 | 258 | 24 | 9 | 273 | 69 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | CIN | 52% | 151 | 133 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 290 | 289 | 579 | 87 | 256 | 24 | 9 | 268 | 66 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 766 | 674 | 134 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 72 | 177 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 199 | 290 | 280 | 571 | 82 | 251 | 23 | 9 | 271 | 64 | -29 | +1 | -2 | +8 | +17 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 572 | 114 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 61 | 150 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 199 | 291 | 280 | 571 | 80 | 252 | 23 | 9 | 271 | 64 | -25 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3301 | 2894 | 603 | 96 | 12 | 33 | 291 | 773 | 68 | 52 | 25 | 208 | 296 | 284 | 580 | 76 | 270 | 23 | 9 | 263 | 64 | -69 | -0 | -4 | +19 | +38 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 118 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 57 | 152 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 207 | 294 | 279 | 573 | 72 | 269 | 23 | 9 | 263 | 64 | -25 | -0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 140 PAwOBA .365 → .335 (−30)K% 20.0% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 9.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 36.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.94% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .365 → .335; ISO .061 → .057; BABIP .419 → .414. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 122 PAwOBA .283 → .238 (−45)K% 20.5% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.49% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 26.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.10% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 3.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 20.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .283 → .238; ISO .050 → .042; BABIP .276 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 275 PAwOBA .327 → .287 (−40)K% 16.0% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.00% | ÷0.999 | ×1.270 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.27% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 10.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.91% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.97% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.928 | ×0.810 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.31% | ÷1.124 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.67% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .327 → .287; ISO .111 → .097; BABIP .281 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 47 PAwOBA .179 → .148 (−31)K% 29.8% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.79% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷0.963 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 14.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 3.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .179 → .148; ISO .024 → .021; BABIP .179 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 289 PAwOBA .267 → .228 (−39)K% 15.6% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.57% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.30% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.73% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.015 | 19.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.37% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.015 | 4.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.10% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .267 → .228; ISO .080 → .063; BABIP .251 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 68 PAwOBA .284 → .245 (−39)K% 17.6% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 22.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.976 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 10.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.58% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.032 | ×1.027 | 24.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.810 | ×1.032 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.850 | ×1.032 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.285 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.49% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .284 → .245; ISO .055 → .036; BABIP .262 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 240 PAwOBA .313 → .252 (−61)K% 19.6% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.58% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.58% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.42% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.61% | ÷1.032 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.030 | 19.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.030 | 7.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.083 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×1.030 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.42% | ÷1.060 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.88% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .313 → .252; ISO .137 → .104; BABIP .309 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Reds · 71 PAwOBA .389 → .270 (−118)K% 25.4% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.35% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.27% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.21% | ÷1.022 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 30.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.035 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.983 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .389 → .270; ISO .115 → .076; BABIP .477 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .