Johnny Ascanio — OGILVIE

Johnny AscanioSS Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 23 S/R 5'8" / 189 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION262 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP275

ISO71

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL Reds	—	141	111	37	5	3	0	19	22	8	12	7	333	464	432	896	99	407	16	13	402	158	+10	-0	—	—	+3	1.3
2022	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	54	48	11	0	0	0	6	11	0	0	0	229	315	229	544		297	20	11	262	63	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	19	ROK	ACL Reds	—	71	61	21	3	2	0	8	18	1	5	2	344	429	459	888	115	477	25	11	393	152	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	240	212	54	15	1	4	23	47	1	3	1	255	331	392	722	137	309	20	10	320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+5	0.6
2024	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	68	55	12	0	0	1	10	12	1	4	0	218	348	273	621	55	262	18	15	290	83	-1	+1	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	289	250	55	11	0	3	24	45	5	8	3	220	301	300	601	80	251	16	8	270	69	-11	+0	—	—	+6	-0.4
2024	21	INTL	Perth Heat	—	89	81	19	3	2	0	5	14	1	1	2	235	287	321	608	86	284	16	6	269	68	-3	-1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2025	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	47	41	5	1	0	0	5	14	0	0	0	122	217	146	364	24	179	30	11	179	7	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	275	217	52	8	2	4	42	44	8	3	3	240	382	350	732	111	281	16	15	332	111	+4	-1	—	—	+6	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	141	118	31	4	2	0	12	32	8	12	7	263	370	331	700	68	335	23	9	309	95	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
2022	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	54	49	9	0	0	0	5	15	0	0	0	184	259	184	443		269	28	9	208	27	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	71	64	15	2	1	0	5	26	1	5	2	234	300	297	597	62	372	37	7	269	68	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	240	218	46	13	1	3	17	66	1	3	1	211	271	321	592	110	275	28	7	255	59	-12	+0	—	—	+5	-0.7
2024	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	68	58	11	0	0	1	7	16	1	4	0	190	288	241	529	52	238	24	10	235	45	-4	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	289	256	50	10	0	2	18	64	5	8	3	195	262	258	519	62	234	22	6	234	45	-19	+0	—	—	+6	-1.3
2025	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	47	43	5	1	0	0	3	17	0	0	0	116	174	140	313	23	168	36	6	144	-16	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	275	229	50	8	2	3	30	59	8	3	3	218	330	310	640	92	263	21	11	281	76	-8	-1	—	—	+6	-0.2
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	141	118	31	4	2	0	12	32	8	12	7	263	370	331	700	68	352	23	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	141	111	37	5	3	0	19	22	8	12	7	333	464	432	896	99	407	16	13	402	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	125	114	24	2	1	0	9	41	1	5	2	211	274	246	520	35	324	33	7	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	125	109	32	3	2	0	14	29	1	5	2	294	379	358	737	64	395	23	11	336	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	240	218	46	13	1	3	17	66	1	3	1	211	271	321	592	110	287	28	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	240	212	54	15	1	4	23	47	1	3	1	255	331	392	722	137	309	20	10	320	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	446	393	76	12	0	4	32	101	7	13	5	193	266	254	521	61	246	23	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	446	386	86	14	2	4	39	71	7	13	5	223	306	301	606	78	259	16	9	273	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	322	272	54	8	2	3	33	76	8	3	3	199	304	276	579	77	260	24	10	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	322	258	57	9	2	4	47	58	8	3	3	221	358	318	676	97	266	18	15	310	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	141	120	31	4	2	0	12	32	8	12	7	258	370	325	695	67	335	23	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	125	114	24	2	1	0	9	41	1	5	2	211	274	246	520	35	328	33	7	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	240	220	46	13	1	3	17	66	1	3	1	209	271	318	589	109	275	28	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	446	404	76	12	0	4	32	101	7	13	5	188	266	248	514	59	235	23	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	322	278	54	8	2	3	33	76	8	3	3	194	304	270	573	76	249	24	10	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	240	220	46	13	1	3	17	66	1	3	1	209	271	318	589	109	275	28	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	446	404	76	12	0	4	32	101	7	13	5	188	266	248	514	59	235	23	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	322	278	54	8	2	3	33	76	8	3	3	194	304	270	573	76	249	24	10	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	CIN	—	262	225	56	8	0	1	24	68	9	3	0	249	345	298	643	49	350	26	9	286	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	CIN	—	122	100	21	5	0	0	15	25	5	0	0	210	342	260	602	50	276	20	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	CIN	—	140	115	37	4	0	1	19	28	4	3	0	322	435	383	817	61	419	20	14	374	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	CIN	2%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		273	20	10	267	67	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	CIN	—	272	234	57	8	0	1	25	70	9	3	0	244	340	291	630	47	341	26	9	286	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	31%	391	344	72	11	1	4	36	92	8	4	1	209	299	282	581	73	273	24	9	273	71	-14	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	45%	432	380	82	13	1	6	40	101	9	5	1	216	305	303	608	87	275	23	9	282	77	-12	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	51%	457	402	88	14	1	8	43	106	9	5	1	219	308	318	627	100	276	23	9	287	80	-11	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	465	409	89	14	1	8	44	108	9	5	1	218	307	315	623	98	277	23	9	288	81	-10	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	467	411	89	14	1	8	44	110	9	5	1	217	306	314	620	97	276	24	9	287	81	-11	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	460	404	87	14	1	7	44	109	9	4	1	215	306	307	613	92	276	24	10	285	79	-11	+0	-1	+5	+10	0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	452	397	86	14	1	7	43	108	9	4	1	217	307	310	617	93	275	24	10	283	78	-12	+0	-2	+5	+10	0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	439	386	81	13	1	6	42	106	8	3	1	210	300	295	596	85	273	24	10	279	75	-13	+0	-3	+5	+10	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	31%	121	106	22	4	0	1	11	29	3	1	0	208	300	274	574	66	276	24	9	261	71	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	45%	193	169	38	6	1	3	18	45	4	2	1	225	314	325	640	101	278	23	9	271	77	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	51%	233	204	45	7	1	4	22	54	5	3	1	221	312	324	635	103	279	23	9	277	80	-5	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	244	214	48	8	1	4	23	57	5	3	1	224	314	327	641	103	279	23	9	278	81	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	249	218	48	8	1	4	24	58	5	3	1	220	312	321	633	101	279	23	10	277	81	-6	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	242	212	47	8	1	4	23	57	5	2	1	222	312	325	638	104	278	24	10	275	79	-6	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	236	206	45	7	1	4	23	56	5	2	1	218	312	320	632	102	277	24	10	273	78	-6	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	228	200	43	7	0	4	22	55	4	2	0	215	305	310	615	95	275	24	10	269	75	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1746	1529	336	55	6	28	166	411	36	18	6	220	311	319	629	99	281	24	10	273	73	-45	+1	-4	+19	+38	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	569	124	20	2	10	62	153	13	7	2	218	309	313	622	95	279	24	10	273	73	-17	+0	-1	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4847	4257	906	146	14	64	440	1158	95	71	26	213	301	299	600	86	275	24	9	276	73	-94	+4	-7	+38	+77	1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	122	20	2	9	59	155	13	10	3	214	302	303	605	89	275	24	9	276	73	-17	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Darwin Barneylast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,729 PA	4.1	2,729	29	29	246	294	339	+10	+46	6.5	6.5
/162	664	7	7	+2.5	+11.2	1.6	pk7: 7
#3Jack Hannahanlast yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,867 PA	2.8	1,867	29	6	232	315	348	+6	+29	6.2	6.2
/162	664	10	2	+2.0	+10.4	2.2	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.6	1,751	27	17	217	304	311	+19	+12	2.3	2.3
/162	664	10	7	+7.1	+4.6	0.9	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johnny Ascanio (OGILVIE)	23	45	35	45	60	205/298/267	62	273	2	4	24%	9%	67	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2007 · AAA	23	42	39→40	47→45	47	203/257/283	81	237	6	9	18%	6%	53	-2.1	219/289/322	103	276	10	6	23%	8%	75	-0.5	234/307/331	97	291	9	4	21%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Riley Unroe 2019 · AAA	23	41→48	37→45	46→55	45	196/266/268	71	281	5	12	30%	8%	53	-2.1	217/278/313	96	294	8	11	27%	7%	68	-1.0	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Carlos Ramirez 2012 · A	23	43	38→40	47→45	48	205/272/280	75	254	6	8	21%	8%	59	-1.7	198/267/269	71	267	6	8	26%	8%	54	-2.0	146/231/157	11	210	0	6	27%	9%	14	-1.1
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	37→44	39→40	47→40	54	180/284/263	83	241	7	6	26%	11%	61	-1.5	192/281/278	86	270	8	4	29%	10%	63	-1.4	200/288/293	93	258	9	0	25%	10%	66	-0.6
✕Rafael Marchán 2021 · A	22	46	36→45	40	47	214/269/282	67	257	3	6	17%	6%	57	-1.8	205/266/280	75	243	4	4	17%	6%	56	-1.9	226/305/329	102	258	9	2	16%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Sammy Diaz 2014 · A	23	48	37→40	49→50	49	225/283/292	68	263	5	8	16%	7%	65	-1.2	238/282/329	91	280	5	8	16%	6%	72	-0.7	247/283/340	93	281	3	5	13%	5%	73	-0.3
✕Elih Marrero 2021 · A	24	44	39→40	49→55	44	210/266/295	85	273	6	7	25%	7%	59	-1.7	214/286/290	76	305	4	21	28%	9%	66	-1.1	210/267/320	110	294	8	22	29%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Edson Garcia 2016 · AAA	23	46→48	38→40	45	51	214/275/291	77	247	5	10	16%	7%	61	-1.5	222/278/326	104	257	8	11	16%	6%	71	-0.8	219/281/333	114	261	9	9	19%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Griff Erickson 2011 · A	23	43→50	40→45	50→40	48	206/268/300	94	256	6	4	22%	8%	61	-1.5	221/291/339	118	274	11	4	22%	9%	79	-0.2	215/291/341	126	265	13	2	23%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Christian Lopes 2016 · AA	23	45→51	37→45	43→50	47	211/270/281	71	268	4	4	22%	7%	58	-1.7	226/288/323	97	278	7	12	20%	7%	74	-0.6	214/297/334	120	267	12	13	23%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Chuck Taylor 2017 · AA	23	47→56	37→40	44→50	46	222/286/296	74	290	4	7	24%	7%	67	-1.1	234/294/323	89	294	7	5	21%	7%	76	-0.4	232/293/320	88	289	7	4	21%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Tyler Friis 2019 · A	23	44	39→40	46→50	52	210/275/296	86	245	6	9	17%	8%	63	-1.4	213/276/298	85	266	5	14	20%	8%	63	-1.3	211/275/284	73	267	3	21	21%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Yonathan Mendoza 2017 · AA	23	51	36→30	46→45	47	238/289/299	61	288	3	5	18%	6%	68	-1.0	238/287/293	55	290	4	6	18%	6%	66	-1.1	234/285/276	42	286	3	5	18%	7%	58	-1.0
✕Raywilly Gomez 2013 · A	23	49→52	38→40	45→40	50	231/283/305	74	261	5	3	14%	7%	68	-1.0	243/304/312	69	280	4	3	13%	8%	77	-0.3	256/321/310	54	293	2	2	12%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Frainyer Chavez 2022 · A	23	44→48	35→40	46→50	46	203/276/259	55	287	2	11	28%	8%	55	-1.9	210/273/279	69	293	5	13	28%	7%	58	-1.7	225/293/309	84	295	8	18	25%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Richy Pedroza 2014 · A	23	47→55	36→30	43→50	55	217/300/290	73	263	2	6	17%	10%	72	-0.7	216/281/294	78	256	2	6	15%	8%	64	-1.3	234/309/294	60	283	2	18	16%	9%	73	-0.5
✕Angelo Amendolare 2016 · AAA	23	47	37→30	44→50	51	222/296/295	74	266	4	7	18%	8%	71	-0.8	229/301/299	70	308	3	9	25%	8%	74	-0.6	241/319/285	44	333	0	10	25%	8%	73	-0.2
✕Chace Numata 2016 · A	23	48	36→40	49→40	46	228/278/295	67	274	3	5	18%	6%	63	-1.3	238/287/317	79	284	4	4	16%	6%	72	-0.7	235/284/315	80	276	3	2	16%	6%	68	-0.5
✕L.T. Tolbert 2019 · A	23	45→53	37→40	45→40	48	211/268/286	75	257	4	6	19%	7%	58	-1.7	237/283/318	81	290	6	5	19%	5%	70	-0.8	253/295/328	75	303	6	3	18%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Carlos Alvarez 2008 · A	22	44	36→40	49→45	49	204/285/270	66	265	2	8	22%	8%	61	-1.5	227/306/316	89	269	4	8	16%	9%	80	-0.2	231/320/325	95	269	5	9	15%	9%	85	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps