Johnny Ascanio — OGILVIE

Johnny AscanioSS Dayton Dragons

Age 23 S/R 5'8" / 189 lbs A+ HR +9%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2029

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .299 / .308

PA320

HR4

K%23

BB%9

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

35→35

SPD

45→45

EYE

52↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.1	$11M	+$10M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.7	$4M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.1M
Totals		$9M		$45M	+$36M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Reds	141	118	31	4	2	0	12	32	8	12	7	.263	.370	.331	.700	.068	.352	23	9	.310	95	-1	-0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
2022	19	ROK	2 teams	125	114	24	2	1	0	9	41	1	5	2	.211	.274	.246	.520	.035	.324	33	7	.242	43	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
2023	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	240	218	45	12	1	3	17	66	1	3	1	.206	.267	.312	.579	.106	.280	28	7	.254	53	-13	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.3
2024	21	A	3 teams	446	393	76	12	0	4	32	99	7	13	5	.193	.266	.254	.521	.061	.244	22	7	.234	37	-32	+1	+0	+5	+13	-1.4
2025	22	A+	2 teams	322	272	56	9	2	3	33	74	8	3	3	.206	.310	.287	.597	.081	.268	23	10	.265	61	-14	-1	+0	+3	+9	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	36	32	6	2	0	0	4	7	0	0	0	.188	.278	.250	.528	.062	.240	19	11	.263	59	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB	CIN	284	251	54	10	1	4	27	65	4	4	1	.215	.301	.311	.612	.096	.272	23	10	.278	71	-9	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.2
TOT	23	MLB	CIN	320	283	60	12	1	4	31	72	4	4	1	.212	.299	.304	.603	.092	.269	22	10	.276	70	-11	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 10%	CIN	391	345	78	15	2	6	38	83	5	5	2	.226	.312	.333	.645	.107	.275	21	10	.295	84	-7	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.8
2028	25	MLB 25%	CIN	432	380	87	17	2	8	43	91	6	6	2	.229	.317	.347	.664	.118	.277	21	10	.301	88	-6	+0	+0	+5	+12	1.2
2029	26	MLB 43%	CIN	457	402	93	18	2	9	46	97	6	7	2	.231	.319	.353	.673	.122	.278	21	10	.304	91	-5	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.4
2030	27	MLB 58%	CIN	465	409	94	18	2	9	47	99	6	7	2	.230	.318	.350	.668	.120	.279	21	10	.305	91	-5	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.4
2031	28	MLB 68%	CIN	467	411	94	18	2	9	47	100	6	6	2	.229	.317	.348	.665	.119	.278	21	10	.303	90	-5	+0	-1	+5	+13	1.3
2032	29	MLB 77%	CIN	460	404	91	17	2	9	47	100	6	6	2	.225	.315	.344	.659	.119	.278	22	10	.301	89	-6	+0	-1	+5	+13	1.1
2033	30	MLB 84%	CIN	452	397	89	17	2	8	46	100	6	5	1	.224	.314	.338	.652	.113	.276	22	10	.298	86	-7	+1	-2	+5	+13	0.9
2034	31	MLB 91%	CIN	439	385	86	16	2	8	45	99	6	4	1	.223	.314	.338	.652	.114	.275	23	10	.294	84	-8	+0	-3	+5	+12	0.7
2035	32	MLB	CIN	422	371	81	15	2	7	43	97	5	3	0	.218	.308	.326	.634	.108	.273	23	10	.290	80	-10	+1	-4	+5	+12	0.4
2036	33	MLB	CIN	393	345	73	14	1	6	40	93	5	2	0	.212	.303	.310	.613	.099	.272	24	10	.285	76	-11	+0	-4	+4	+11	0.1
2037	34	MLB	CIN	348	306	64	12	1	5	35	85	4	2	0	.209	.299	.304	.602	.095	.270	24	10	.278	71	-11	+0	-5	+4	+10	-0.2
2038	35	MLB	CIN	296	260	53	10	1	4	30	76	4	2	0	.204	.296	.296	.592	.092	.268	26	10	.271	66	-12	+0	-6	+3	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6580	5781	1269	236	28	102	637	1497	94	95	33	.220	.307	.323	.630	.103	.277	23	10	.286	77	-168	+6	-25	+70	+186	7.1
/ 162G	—			650	571	125	23	3	10	63	148	9	9	3	.219	.306	.322	.629	.103	.276	23	10	.286	77	-17	+1	-2	+7	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Reds	141	111	37	5	3	0	19	22	8	12	7	.333	.464	.432	.896	.099	.407	16	13	.402	166	+10	-0	—	—	+4	1.4
2022	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	54	48	11	0	0	0	6	11	0	0	0	.229	.315	.229	.544	.000	.297	20	11	.262	59	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	19	ROK	ACL Reds	71	61	21	3	2	0	8	18	1	5	2	.344	.429	.459	.888	.115	.477	25	11	.393	159	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2023	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	240	212	54	15	1	4	23	47	1	3	1	.255	.331	.392	.722	.137	.309	20	10	.320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+7	0.8
2024	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	68	55	12	0	0	1	10	12	1	4	0	.218	.348	.273	.621	.055	.262	18	15	.290	80	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	289	250	55	11	0	3	24	45	5	8	3	.220	.301	.300	.601	.080	.251	16	8	.270	64	-12	+0	—	—	+8	-0.3
2024	21	INTL	Perth Heat	89	81	19	3	2	0	5	14	1	1	2	.235	.287	.321	.608	.086	.284	16	6	.269	64	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	47	41	5	1	0	0	5	14	0	0	0	.122	.217	.146	.364	.024	.179	30	11	.179	-5	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	275	217	52	8	2	4	42	44	8	3	3	.240	.382	.350	.732	.111	.281	16	15	.332	113	+4	-1	—	—	+8	1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johnny Ascanio (OGILVIE)	23	45	35	45	60	.214/.299/.308	.094	.275	4	4	23%	9%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2015 · A	23	45	42→40	44→55	51	.221/.298/.326	.105	.274	9	10	22%	9%	76	+0.1	.222/.276/.306	.084	.294	6	8	25%	6%	61	-1.0	.226/.279/.297	.071	.294	6	7	24%	5%	55	-0.5
✕Shawn Zarraga 2012 · A	23	49	39→40	50→45	45	.233/.296/.316	.083	.301	6	9	24%	6%	72	-0.2	.249/.309/.343	.094	.297	6	7	17%	6%	85	+0.7	.272/.340/.355	.083	.316	4	2	14%	7%	101	+0.6
✕Greg Garcia 2013 · AA	23	51→53	40	46→50	50	.240/.315/.339	.099	.299	7	8	21%	8%	86	+0.8	.239/.313/.331	.092	.309	6	12	23%	8%	84	+0.6	.241/.350/.334	.093	.308	6	3	21%	13%	99	+0.8
✕Josh Johnson 2009 · A	23	48→49	36→45	44→50	55	.224/.310/.292	.068	.289	4	10	22%	11%	72	-0.2	.231/.307/.319	.088	.295	6	11	22%	9%	78	+0.2	.247/.316/.352	.105	.295	9	16	18%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	39→30	48→40	49	.206/.285/.289	.084	.266	7	7	24%	9%	62	-0.9	.224/.308/.287	.063	.307	4	5	26%	8%	71	-0.3	.233/.323/.283	.051	.326	2	2	26%	8%	73	-0.0
✕Noe Becerra 2010 · AAA	23	44	39→30	43→40	48	.212/.275/.292	.079	.267	7	7	22%	8%	57	-1.2	.232/.282/.316	.084	.273	7	7	17%	6%	66	-0.6	.278/.325/.338	.060	.315	3	0	12%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Louis Ott 2008 · A	23	47→48	38→30	47→45	45	.222/.286/.300	.078	.296	6	8	26%	7%	64	-0.8	.228/.300/.296	.068	.325	4	7	28%	9%	69	-0.4	.228/.307/.282	.054	.331	3	6	29%	10%	65	-0.4
✕Omar Mendoza 2006 · AAA	23	50→54	44→45	45	50	.244/.302/.371	.127	.285	10	7	18%	8%	89	+0.9	.247/.297/.367	.120	.295	12	8	20%	7%	86	+0.8	.248/.297/.361	.113	.293	12	9	19%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Drew Millas 2023 · AA	25	44	40→45	50	50	.212/.289/.303	.091	.285	7	11	27%	10%	66	-0.6	.238/.302/.356	.118	.293	11	14	21%	8%	85	+0.7	.252/.308/.379	.127	.291	12	17	17%	7%	90	+0.6
✕Carlos Alvarez 2010 · A	24	47	38→40	48→45	53	.221/.302/.311	.089	.260	4	7	16%	9%	74	-0.1	.225/.314/.313	.088	.273	4	9	18%	10%	80	+0.4	.234/.338/.322	.088	.280	4	12	16%	11%	94	+0.5
✕Domingo Leyba 2019 · AA	23	48→51	42→50	47→45	47	.236/.285/.343	.107	.277	10	7	19%	6%	74	-0.1	.228/.275/.365	.137	.267	14	4	20%	6%	76	+0.1	.223/.285/.356	.132	.252	16	6	19%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Casey Turgeon 2017 · AA	24	45	39→40	48→45	54	.214/.301/.305	.091	.264	5	7	20%	10%	72	-0.2	.207/.289/.303	.096	.269	8	7	24%	9%	67	-0.5	.188/.276/.270	.082	.242	10	6	25%	10%	51	-0.9
✕Austin Elkins 2014 · A	23	44→42	41→40	49→50	54	.211/.300/.309	.099	.258	7	13	20%	10%	73	-0.1	.216/.298/.306	.090	.273	7	10	22%	9%	72	-0.2	.213/.300/.279	.066	.272	4	6	21%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Tyler Heineman 2015 · AA	24	46→45	42→45	43→50	46	.220/.285/.330	.111	.253	9	5	17%	6%	72	-0.2	.226/.280/.312	.086	.264	6	5	16%	6%	64	-0.8	.226/.321/.329	.103	.279	10	14	21%	10%	84	+0.2
✕Jose Herrera 2021 · A	24	43	40	47→40	51	.209/.287/.304	.095	.275	8	5	25%	10%	66	-0.6	.215/.289/.310	.095	.290	9	5	27%	9%	68	-0.5	.210/.286/.290	.080	.278	8	3	26%	9%	58	-0.5
✕Angelo Amendolare 2016 · AAA	23	47	37→30	45→50	51	.221/.294/.298	.076	.266	4	7	18%	8%	67	-0.5	.230/.303/.298	.068	.302	3	9	23%	8%	71	-0.3	.244/.324/.286	.042	.329	0	10	23%	9%	72	-0.1
✕Luis Lara 2018 · A	23	46	44→45	52→45	48	.226/.285/.348	.122	.272	10	6	21%	7%	76	+0.0	.201/.267/.278	.077	.279	5	5	27%	8%	50	-1.7	.159/.237/.177	.019	.231	0	2	28%	9%	9	-1.4
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	48	.209/.289/.317	.108	.281	9	6	28%	9%	70	-0.3	.221/.304/.311	.090	.312	8	6	29%	9%	75	-0.0	.236/.329/.308	.072	.330	7	6	28%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Luis Santana 2021 · AA	22	51	39→45	47→50	49	.240/.311/.329	.088	.285	7	8	18%	7%	82	+0.5	.212/.270/.330	.118	.280	12	9	28%	5%	66	-0.6	.212/.267/.344	.132	.272	16	8	27%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Steve Tolleson 2007 · A	23	46→53	42→45	45→50	52	.225/.301/.333	.108	.270	9	9	20%	9%	79	+0.3	.242/.311/.344	.102	.308	8	14	22%	9%	85	+0.7	.254/.312/.373	.119	.302	10	12	19%	7%	90	+0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)