Rony Bello

SS DSL Nationals

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#844ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKWSH	105	.202/.324/.292	0	8	13	—	.118/.219/.161
2026	18	ROKWSH	136	.291/.414/.455	4	21	57	—	.183/.293/.270
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBWSH	246	.234/.303/.328	2	7	80	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBWSH	43	.236/.307/.334	1	1	84	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBWSH	108	.238/.310/.343	2	3	87	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%91

Whiff%83

wOBA71

ISO70

Speed68

wRC+65

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsAbiatal Avelino (age 19) · Eduardo Quintero (age 18) · Gorkys Hernández (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj PA

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .301 / .325

PA70

HR1

K%23

BB%7

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$33M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 67 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT67

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED69

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.2M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	105	89	18	4	2	0	14	16	2	8	0	202	324	292	616	90	247	15	13	290	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	136	110	32	4	1	4	16	16	7	21	6	291	414	455	868	164	301	12	12	384	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	105	93	11	2	1	0	10	20	2	8	0	118	219	161	380	43	157	19	10	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	136	115	21	2	1	2	11	20	7	21	6	183	293	270	563	87	190	15	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	105	93	11	2	1	0	10	20	2	8	0	118	219	161	380	43	151	19	10	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	105	89	18	4	2	0	14	16	2	8	0	202	324	292	616	90	247	15	13	290	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	136	115	21	2	1	2	11	20	7	21	6	183	293	270	563	87	198	15	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	136	110	32	4	1	4	16	16	7	21	6	291	414	455	868	164	301	12	12	384	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	105	92	11	2	1	0	10	20	2	8	0	120	219	163	382	43	157	19	10	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	136	117	21	2	1	2	11	20	7	21	6	179	293	265	558	85	190	15	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	105	92	11	2	1	0	10	20	2	8	0	120	219	163	382	43	157	19	10	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	136	117	21	2	1	2	11	20	7	21	6	179	293	265	558	85	190	15	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	246	222	52	8	3	2	18	57	4	7	1	234	303	328	631	94	301	23	7	286	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	125	113	27	4	1	2	9	29	2	4	1	237	308	338	646	101	302	23	7	292	84	-2	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	223	200	48	8	2	3	17	51	4	7	1	239	311	347	658	108	302	23	8	297	87	-3	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	334	300	72	12	3	5	26	75	5	10	2	241	313	354	667	113	302	22	8	301	90	-4	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	413	371	90	15	4	7	32	93	7	12	2	243	315	360	675	117	303	23	8	304	92	-4	+2	+0	+4	+9	1.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	463	417	101	17	4	8	36	104	7	14	2	244	316	365	681	121	303	22	8	306	93	-4	+2	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	493	443	108	18	4	9	39	111	8	15	3	244	316	366	682	122	303	23	8	307	94	-4	+2	+0	+5	+11	1.4
2034	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	509	456	111	18	5	9	40	114	8	15	3	244	316	366	682	122	303	22	8	307	94	-4	+2	+0	+5	+11	1.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	512	459	111	18	5	9	40	116	8	15	3	243	315	364	679	120	303	23	8	305	93	-4	+2	+0	+5	+11	1.4
2036	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	510	457	110	18	4	9	40	116	8	14	3	242	313	359	673	118	302	23	8	303	91	-5	+2	-1	+5	+11	1.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	500	450	107	18	4	8	39	115	7	13	3	239	311	353	664	114	301	23	8	299	89	-7	+1	-1	+5	+11	1.0
2038	30	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	488	440	104	17	4	8	38	114	7	12	3	237	308	346	654	109	300	23	8	295	86	-8	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.7
2039	31	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	472	426	99	16	4	7	36	112	7	10	3	233	303	337	640	104	298	24	8	289	82	-10	+1	-3	+5	+10	0.3
2040	32	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	451	408	94	15	4	6	34	109	6	9	3	228	297	325	623	97	294	24	8	282	77	-12	+1	-4	+5	+10	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	43	39	10	2	0	1	3	10	1	1	0	236	307	334	640	98	300	23	7	290	84	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	108	97	24	4	1	2	8	25	2	3	1	238	310	343	652	105	300	23	7	295	87	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	181	162	39	7	1	3	14	41	3	5	1	240	312	350	662	110	301	23	8	299	90	-2	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	234	210	51	9	2	4	18	53	4	7	1	242	314	356	670	114	301	23	8	302	92	-2	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	262	235	58	10	2	5	21	59	4	8	1	243	315	361	676	118	302	23	8	304	93	-2	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2033	25	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	279	251	60	10	2	5	22	63	4	8	1	243	315	362	677	119	302	23	8	305	94	-2	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2034	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	288	258	63	11	2	5	23	65	5	8	2	243	315	362	677	119	301	23	8	305	94	-2	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2035	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	284	256	61	10	2	5	22	64	4	8	2	242	314	360	674	118	301	23	8	303	93	-2	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2036	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	280	252	60	10	2	5	22	64	4	8	1	241	312	355	668	115	301	23	8	301	91	-3	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.7
2037	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	267	240	57	10	2	4	21	62	4	7	1	238	310	350	660	111	300	23	8	298	89	-4	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	257	231	55	9	2	4	20	60	4	6	1	236	307	343	649	107	299	23	8	293	86	-4	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2039	31	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	246	222	52	8	2	4	19	58	3	5	1	232	302	333	636	101	296	24	8	288	82	-5	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.2
2040	32	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	234	211	49	8	2	3	18	57	3	5	2	227	296	322	618	95	293	24	8	281	77	-6	+0	-2	+3	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2963	2664	639	108	22	50	231	681	45	79	15	240	311	353	664	113	303	23	8	298	87	-38	+10	-6	+32	+64	6.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	141	24	5	11	51	149	10	17	3	241	313	356	669	115	304	23	8	298	87	-8	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5804	5212	1229	200	51	93	452	1315	94	181	38	236	308	347	656	111	296	23	8	296	87	-74	+18	-10	+60	+121	11.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	137	22	6	10	51	147	11	20	4	235	309	344	653	110	295	23	8	296	87	-9	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Nationals · 136 PAwOBA .383 → .252 (−131)K% 11.8% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	14.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	8.19%
HBP% /PA	5.15%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	3.58%
Singles /BIP	24.47%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.973	×0.995	16.11%
Doubles /BIP	4.26%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.973	×0.995	2.47%
Triples /BIP	1.06%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.973	×0.995	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	4.26%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	1.99%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .383 → .252; ISO .164 → .088; BABIP .301 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Nationals · 105 PAwOBA .284 → .187 (−97)K% 15.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.24%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	19.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.17%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.34%
Singles /BIP	16.44%	÷1.025	×0.680	×0.986	×1.008	10.83%
Doubles /BIP	5.48%	÷0.999	×0.600	×0.986	×1.008	3.27%
Triples /BIP	2.74%	÷0.999	×0.600	×0.986	×1.008	1.63%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.300	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .284 → .187; ISO .090 → .054; BABIP .247 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Spike Owen'83-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,615 PA	8.5	5,615	46	82	242*	322*	356*	+55	+30	15.6	15.3
/162	664	5	10	+6.5	+3.6	1.8	pk7: 15
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.6	3,032	50	83	241	309	355	+32	+24	8.6	7.5
/162	664	11	18	+7.1	+5.3	1.9	pk7: 6
#5Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rony Bello (OGILVIE)	19	62→67	34→39	64→69	56	232/301/325	93	301	1	2	23%	7%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Abiatal Avelino 2014 · A	19	50→54	36→45	60→55	50	229/296/300	71	270	2	24	15%	7%	72	-0.7	231/278/311	80	292	4	22	21%	5%	67	-1.1	253/294/359	106	312	9	19	21%	5%	80	-0.1
●Eduardo Quintero 2024 · A	18	46→54	40→45	58→60	53	216/306/324	108	273	5	19	21%	10%	82	-0.0	225/320/342	117	312	9	25	28%	11%	91	+0.7	231/334/361	130	321	12	30	28%	12%	99	+1.0
✕Gorkys Hernández 2008 · A	20	54→60	39→45	58→55	43	258/294/347	89	308	6	27	18%	4%	81	-0.1	254/299/337	83	336	4	18	24%	6%	80	-0.1	252/308/366	115	311	11	16	22%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Ryan Brett 2012 · A	20	48→58	40→45	57→60	47	227/276/330	103	266	5	18	16%	6%	70	-0.8	251/295/355	104	308	7	26	20%	5%	83	+0.1	266/307/374	108	325	8	30	20%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→54	38→45	60→50	41	212/274/296	84	304	4	18	30%	6%	63	-1.4	218/263/298	80	292	5	11	26%	5%	58	-1.7	253/299/420	167	321	18	9	26%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2009 · A	19	44→54	37→45	58→60	48	208/269/282	74	252	4	24	19%	7%	57	-1.8	242/293/325	83	287	5	28	16%	6%	75	-0.5	278/316/373	95	318	7	16	14%	5%	93	+0.5
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Ricky Cabrera 2024 · A	19	48→44	40→45	57→60	43	224/310/324	99	311	7	18	28%	7%	84	+0.1	216/282/315	99	309	8	12	31%	6%	71	-0.8	213/277/319	106	299	10	14	30%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Osleivis Basabe 2022 · A	21	52→62	38→45	56→50	45	246/290/332	86	302	5	15	20%	6%	76	-0.4	264/309/368	104	320	5	15	18%	5%	91	+0.7	268/314/373	105	323	5	15	18%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	47	40→45	60→65	53	222/313/322	100	267	5	29	18%	9%	84	+0.1	234/309/354	120	293	11	18	23%	8%	90	+0.6	231/312/342	111	292	7	11	21%	9%	84	+0.0
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	43→53	40→50	57→55	43	207/267/301	93	294	6	22	30%	7%	61	-1.5	237/294/369	132	297	12	21	23%	7%	86	+0.3	245/302/388	143	293	14	19	20%	7%	93	+0.8
✕José Peraza 2014 · A	20	53→63	36→45	61→65	44	248/288/316	68	295	2	33	17%	4%	71	-0.8	275/301/357	82	318	4	36	14%	3%	85	+0.2	275/311/366	91	307	8	25	13%	4%	91	+0.7
✕Nelson Rada 2024 · A	18	52→61	36→30	60	51	240/329/312	72	318	3	29	23%	9%	87	+0.4	246/323/306	60	340	2	33	26%	9%	83	+0.1	255/332/312	57	351	2	38	25%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Carlos Jorge 2022 · A	18	46→56	39→45	62→60	49	216/288/319	103	277	5	24	23%	8%	73	-0.6	208/282/338	130	299	12	26	32%	8%	76	-0.4	193/266/325	132	285	13	29	35%	8%	65	-0.7
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
●L.J. Hoes 2009 · A	19	50→60	37→40	56→50	53	235/305/308	72	289	4	11	19%	9%	76	-0.4	247/295/316	69	318	4	12	22%	6%	74	-0.6	288/348/379	91	345	5	15	17%	8%	105	+1.7
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→56	37→40	56→55	45	224/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	206/266/261	55	280	1	18	25%	7%	51	-2.3	246/312/318	73	319	3	11	22%	8%	79	-0.1
●Alcides Escobar 2006 · A	19	52→62	37→45	53→55	38	244/272/326	82	309	3	16	22%	3%	68	-1.0	262/289/332	70	325	3	20	20%	3%	75	-0.5	292/321/371	79	349	4	27	17%	3%	93	+0.8

Rony Bello

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps