Darwin Almanzar

SS FCL Twins

Age 19 S/R 5'10" / 179 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#891ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKMIN	176	.252/.351/.497	6	6	40	—	.153/.236/.287
2026	18	ROKMIN	166	.254/.485/.342	0	7	82	—	.198/.364/.267
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBMIN	276	.207/.289/.308	3	4	71	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBMIN	47	.213/.295/.325	1	1	77	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBMIN	116	.218/.300/.340	2	2	82	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%98

wRC+88

wOBA80

Z-Con%73

K%64

Speed60

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 4.3, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 88%

CompsJon Del Campo (age 19) · Juan Brito (age 20) · Angel Ortiz (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 86 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .287 / .305

PA86

HR1

K%26

BB%9

ISO100

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	176	151	38	17	1	6	20	28	3	6	2	252	351	497	847	245	269	16	11	368	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	166	114	29	6	2	0	46	31	5	7	5	254	485	342	827	88	345	19	28	396	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	176	157	24	10	1	3	14	34	3	6	2	153	236	287	522	134	166	19	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	166	131	26	5	2	0	29	45	5	7	5	198	364	267	631	69	283	27	17	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	176	157	24	10	1	3	14	34	3	6	2	153	236	287	522	134	172	19	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	176	151	38	17	1	6	20	28	3	6	2	252	351	497	847	245	269	16	11	368	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	166	131	26	5	2	0	29	45	5	7	5	198	364	267	631	69	299	27	17	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	166	114	29	6	2	0	46	31	5	7	5	254	485	342	827	88	345	19	28	396	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	176	157	24	10	1	3	14	34	3	6	2	153	236	287	522	134	166	19	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	166	131	26	5	2	0	29	45	5	7	5	198	364	267	631	69	283	27	17	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	176	157	24	10	1	3	14	34	3	6	2	153	236	287	522	134	166	19	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	166	131	26	5	2	0	29	45	5	7	5	198	364	267	631	69	283	27	17	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	276	246	51	11	2	3	25	71	3	4	1	207	289	308	597	100	276	26	9	273	71	-10	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	138	122	26	5	1	2	13	35	2	2	1	213	295	325	620	112	278	25	9	282	77	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	239	212	46	9	2	4	22	60	3	4	1	218	300	339	640	122	280	25	9	290	82	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	351	311	69	14	3	7	32	87	5	6	2	222	304	351	655	129	282	25	9	295	86	-6	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	425	377	84	17	3	9	39	105	6	7	2	225	307	360	667	135	283	25	9	300	89	-5	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.9
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	472	420	95	19	3	11	43	115	6	8	3	228	309	368	676	140	285	24	9	304	92	-5	+0	+0	+5	+10	1.1
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	499	443	102	20	4	12	46	122	7	8	3	228	309	371	680	143	285	24	9	305	93	-4	+0	+0	+5	+11	1.3
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	513	454	105	21	4	13	47	125	7	8	3	229	310	373	683	144	284	24	9	306	93	-4	+0	+0	+5	+11	1.3
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	517	458	106	21	4	13	47	127	7	8	3	228	309	370	679	143	284	25	9	305	92	-5	+0	+0	+6	+11	1.3
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	515	457	102	20	3	12	47	128	6	7	3	226	307	366	673	140	283	25	9	302	91	-6	+0	-1	+6	+11	1.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	504	447	100	20	3	12	46	126	6	6	3	224	304	360	664	136	282	25	9	299	88	-7	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.8
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	492	439	97	19	3	11	44	125	6	6	4	221	301	353	653	132	281	25	9	294	85	-9	-0	-2	+5	+11	0.5
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	476	426	92	18	3	10	42	123	5	5	6	217	296	343	639	126	278	26	9	289	82	-10	-1	-3	+5	+10	0.1
2040	32	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	454	406	87	17	3	9	40	119	5	4	13	212	290	331	621	119	274	26	9	281	77	-13	-4	-4	+5	+10	-0.6
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	47	42	9	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	213	295	325	621	112	278	26	9	282	77	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	116	102	23	5	1	2	11	29	2	2	1	218	300	340	640	122	280	25	9	290	82	-2	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	190	168	38	8	1	4	17	47	3	3	1	222	304	352	655	130	282	25	9	296	86	-3	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	241	214	48	10	2	5	22	59	3	4	1	225	307	361	668	136	283	24	9	300	89	-3	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	267	237	54	11	2	6	24	65	4	4	2	228	309	368	677	141	285	24	9	304	92	-3	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	282	250	57	11	2	7	26	69	4	5	2	228	310	372	681	143	285	24	9	306	93	-2	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	290	258	59	12	2	7	26	71	4	5	2	229	310	374	683	145	285	24	9	306	93	-2	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	287	255	58	11	2	7	26	71	4	4	2	228	309	371	680	143	284	25	9	305	92	-3	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	283	251	57	11	2	7	26	70	4	4	2	226	307	366	674	140	283	25	9	303	91	-3	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.6
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	269	240	54	11	2	6	24	67	3	3	2	224	304	360	665	137	282	25	9	299	88	-4	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	259	231	52	10	2	6	23	66	3	3	2	221	301	353	654	132	281	25	9	295	85	-5	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	269	240	52	10	2	6	24	69	3	3	3	217	296	344	640	127	278	26	9	289	82	-6	-1	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2040	32	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	247	220	46	9	1	5	22	65	3	2	7	212	290	331	622	120	274	26	9	282	77	-7	-2	-2	+3	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3047	2708	607	121	21	69	275	760	41	43	27	224	305	361	666	137	285	25	9	298	86	-44	-2	-6	+33	+66	4.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	129	26	4	15	59	162	9	9	6	223	305	360	665	137	282	25	9	298	86	-9	-0	-1	+7	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6023	5337	1177	238	43	129	559	1498	80	93	54	221	304	354	658	133	280	25	9	295	86	-85	-3	-10	+61	+123	8.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	128	26	5	14	60	162	9	10	6	222	305	358	663	135	283	25	9	295	86	-10	-0	-1	+7	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 166 PAwOBA .391 → .289 (−101)K% 18.7% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.67%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	26.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.71%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	17.31%
HBP% /PA	3.01%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	2.18%
Singles /BIP	25.30%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.026	×1.008	21.45%
Doubles /BIP	7.23%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.026	×1.008	5.38%
Triples /BIP	2.41%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.026	×1.008	1.79%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .391 → .289; ISO .088 → .070; BABIP .345 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Twins · 176 PAwOBA .362 → .228 (−134)K% 15.9% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.91%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	19.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.36%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.06%
HBP% /PA	1.70%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.20%
Singles /BIP	11.38%	÷0.991	×0.680	×0.978	×1.008	7.69%
Doubles /BIP	13.82%	÷0.982	×0.600	×0.978	×1.008	8.32%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.978	×1.008	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷0.953	×0.470	—	×1.008	2.42%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .362 → .228; ISO .245 → .136; BABIP .269 → .166. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#6Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.7	3,133	69	44	224	301	358	+34	+24	7.1	6.4
/162	664	15	9	+7.1	+5.1	1.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Darwin Almanzar (OGILVIE)	19	40	50	45	40	206/287/305	99	276	1	1	26%	9%	71	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jon Del Campo 2007 · A	19	43	38→45	45→55	47	206/270/283	77	273	6	5	26%	8%	58	-1.7	206/258/288	82	299	4	5	30%	6%	54	-2.0	272/305/377	105	345	10	18	23%	3%	93	+0.5
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	44→50	41→50	47→45	46	215/282/311	96	276	9	12	25%	8%	70	-0.9	234/317/368	134	286	12	9	21%	10%	96	+1.0	231/317/370	139	276	13	9	20%	10%	94	+0.8
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→45	41→50	46→45	44	206/261/296	90	269	9	9	26%	7%	57	-1.8	207/257/302	95	281	7	7	27%	6%	57	-1.8	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	43	37→50	49→30	47	202/280/280	77	287	4	8	29%	9%	62	-1.4	208/291/366	158	303	18	3	35%	10%	86	+0.3	203/298/375	172	290	20	1	35%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→50	41→50	50	45	204/264/307	103	268	7	10	26%	7%	61	-1.5	231/294/358	127	293	12	10	24%	7%	84	+0.2	236/284/389	154	280	16	12	22%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Jesús Báez 2024 · A	19	35→41	40→55	45	46	177/246/265	88	234	7	9	27%	8%	46	-2.6	218/275/368	150	257	19	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Nick Franklin 2010 · A	19	45→51	40→50	49→50	41	220/262/313	93	284	7	6	25%	5%	61	-1.5	233/283/371	138	305	15	13	27%	6%	83	+0.1	240/308/375	135	306	13	12	25%	9%	92	+0.7
✕Alejandro Flores 2015 · A	19	39	41→50	48→40	45	194/256/286	92	252	8	5	26%	7%	54	-2.0	195/258/283	88	291	7	6	33%	7%	53	-2.1	206/261/337	132	279	11	4	29%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Welbyn Francisca 2024 · A	18	44→41	39→45	50→55	48	208/283/300	92	277	5	12	25%	8%	68	-1.0	228/294/332	104	296	9	20	24%	8%	78	-0.3	225/294/339	114	289	12	24	25%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Rodolfo Castro 2018 · A	19	41→42	41→55	47→50	41	199/257/307	107	275	8	5	30%	6%	59	-1.7	197/239/329	132	279	14	5	33%	5%	57	-1.8	211/274/367	156	276	20	7	30%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Bryan Ramos 2021 · A	19	44→42	40→50	44→50	41	210/271/306	95	293	8	6	30%	6%	63	-1.3	215/279/354	139	276	16	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	211/278/358	146	263	19	5	27%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	39→50	45→50	45	198/273/287	89	286	6	8	31%	8%	61	-1.5	229/297/377	148	305	16	5	29%	7%	91	+0.6	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Prilys Cuello 2008 · A	19	41	43→45	46→45	45	201/274/314	113	282	10	8	31%	8%	68	-1.0	212/270/306	94	317	7	8	33%	7%	63	-1.3	204/258/273	69	321	4	10	36%	6%	47	-0.4
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Rosell Herrera 2012 · A	19	40→50	38→45	48→55	44	196/254/277	80	254	6	9	24%	6%	51	-2.3	225/276/310	85	304	7	10	27%	6%	65	-1.2	253/308/344	91	321	4	24	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Riley Unroe 2015 · A	19	39→47	37→45	47→55	46	189/257/263	74	257	4	8	27%	8%	49	-2.4	200/264/264	64	286	4	10	29%	8%	51	-2.2	218/301/329	112	292	11	26	27%	10%	78	-0.1
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	40→44	42→60	44→30	44	195/277/301	106	276	10	5	31%	8%	66	-1.1	199/274/334	135	301	16	4	37%	8%	73	-0.6	207/300/402	195	286	26	2	35%	10%	96	+0.8
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→50	39→45	48→50	50	203/281/298	95	268	5	9	24%	9%	66	-1.1	222/309/292	70	291	3	10	22%	11%	75	-0.5	247/316/346	99	293	8	16	17%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→47	39→45	48→45	46	211/280/295	84	285	6	8	27%	8%	65	-1.2	225/304/318	93	298	6	8	24%	10%	79	-0.2	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2021 · A	19	45→46	37→55	49→50	47	212/272/292	80	272	4	8	22%	7%	61	-1.5	214/265/314	100	290	7	9	27%	6%	63	-1.4	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5

Darwin Almanzar

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps