Hendry Arvelo — OGILVIE

Hendry Arvelo2B DSL LAD Mega

Age 19 L/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 79 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .277 / .238

PA79

HR0

K%23

BB%9

BABIP262

ISO42

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	139	28	2	1	0	17	34	3	12	3	201	302	230	532	29	264	21	11	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	127	34	3	1	0	29	24	3	12	3	268	415	307	722	39	327	15	18	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	LAD	—	119	100	19	4	0	0	13	22	3	4	2	190	302	230	532	40	237	18	11	243	44	-8	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
YTD	19	ROK	LAD	—	119	92	22	5	0	0	21	15	3	4	2	239	397	293	690	54	278	13	18	325	107	+1	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.5
ROS	19	ROK	LAD	0%	79	71	14	3	0	0	7	18	1	2	1	196	277	238	516	42	271	23	9	262	59	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
ROS	19	MLB	LAD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		268	—	—	249	49	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	LAD	—	119	101	19	4	0	0	13	22	3	4	2	188	302	228	529	40	235	18	11	243	44	-8	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
TOT	19	ROK	LAD	—	198	171	33	7	0	0	20	40	4	6	3	193	292	233	525	41	247	20	10	251	50	-11	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	LAD	34%	241	214	45	8	1	2	22	54	3	5	1	210	293	285	578	75	274	22	9	273	67	-9	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	LAD	48%	364	322	70	12	2	4	34	81	5	8	2	217	302	304	606	87	276	22	9	281	73	-11	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.1
2029	22	MLB	LAD	54%	451	400	88	15	2	6	42	100	6	11	3	220	304	312	616	92	278	22	9	287	78	-11	+1	+0	+2	+13	0.4
2030	23	MLB	LAD	57%	509	450	102	18	3	8	47	112	7	12	3	227	310	333	643	107	279	22	9	290	80	-11	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.6
2031	24	MLB	LAD	57%	547	483	110	19	3	9	51	120	8	13	4	228	312	335	647	108	280	22	9	292	82	-11	+1	+0	+2	+15	0.7
2032	25	MLB	LAD	57%	568	502	115	20	3	10	53	125	8	14	4	229	313	341	653	112	280	22	9	294	83	-11	+1	+0	+2	+16	0.9
2033	26	MLB	LAD	56%	579	512	116	20	3	10	54	127	8	14	4	227	310	336	646	109	280	22	9	294	83	-11	+1	+0	+2	+16	0.9
2027	20	MLB	LAD	34%	83	74	16	3	0	1	8	19	1	2	0	216	301	297	599	81	270	23	10	260	57	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	LAD	48%	176	156	34	6	1	2	16	39	2	4	1	218	299	308	607	90	273	22	9	268	63	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	LAD	54%	245	217	47	8	1	3	23	54	3	6	2	217	300	304	605	88	274	22	9	273	67	-9	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.1
2030	23	MLB	LAD	57%	288	255	56	10	1	4	27	64	4	7	2	220	304	314	618	94	276	22	9	277	70	-10	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.0
2031	24	MLB	LAD	57%	309	273	61	10	2	5	29	68	4	8	2	223	307	330	637	106	276	22	9	279	71	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2032	25	MLB	LAD	57%	321	283	64	11	2	5	30	70	5	8	2	226	311	332	643	106	276	22	9	280	72	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2033	26	MLB	LAD	56%	327	288	65	11	2	5	31	72	5	8	2	226	312	330	642	104	276	22	9	280	73	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1749	1547	343	59	9	25	164	386	24	43	11	222	306	320	626	98	278	22	9	276	69	-60	+4	+0	+6	+50	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	127	22	3	9	61	143	9	16	4	221	305	317	622	96	277	22	9	276	69	-22	+2	+0	+2	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	3498	3093	688	117	18	49	327	771	49	91	25	222	307	319	626	97	279	22	9	286	77	-90	+8	+0	+12	+99	3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	128	22	3	9	61	143	9	17	5	223	307	318	625	96	279	22	9	286	77	-17	+1	+0	+2	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	127	34	3	1	0	29	24	3	12	3	268	415	307	722	39	327	15	18	344	121	+4	+1	—	—	+5	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,896	28	45	225	305	325	+7	+5	1.8	2.0
	/162	664	10	16	225	305	325	+2.4	+1.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hendry Arvelo (OGILVIE)	19	45	20	60	60	193/292/233	41	247	0	6	20%	10%	50	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→30	54→50	47	207/264/281	74	251	3	14	19%	6%	50	-1.8	245/295/318	73	283	3	14	14%	5%	72	-0.2	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Victor Padron 2013 · A	19	46	37→30	53→55	51	217/289/294	76	266	4	10	19%	8%	63	-0.8	230/291/277	47	289	1	15	19%	8%	59	-1.1	242/307/262	20	301	0	20	18%	9%	58	-0.4
✕Jose Reyes 2018 · A	19	45	36→45	55	44	211/255/282	71	259	2	13	19%	5%	45	-2.1	226/279/325	99	265	7	15	17%	6%	66	-0.6	248/303/371	123	270	10	25	12%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Andy Pineda 2016 · A	19	48	34→30	51→55	48	222/297/277	55	296	2	20	24%	8%	63	-0.9	219/274/285	66	291	4	18	24%	6%	55	-1.4	196/229/220	24	256	0	28	22%	3%	14	-1.1
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→53	37→40	55→45	52	227/294/304	76	279	3	16	19%	8%	68	-0.5	235/294/322	87	301	4	9	22%	7%	72	-0.2	239/296/325	86	300	4	8	20%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Ayendy Perez 2013 · A	19	46	35→30	49→60	48	211/290/270	59	283	1	12	24%	8%	58	-1.2	228/291/287	59	290	1	24	20%	8%	62	-0.9	236/296/289	54	295	0	33	19%	7%	61	-0.4
✕Jorge Minyety 2010 · A	19	46	35→30	50	55	208/299/269	61	275	1	14	22%	11%	63	-0.9	216/285/281	65	304	2	9	27%	9%	59	-1.1	227/294/263	36	322	0	4	27%	9%	53	-0.3
✕Wilbis Santiago 2016 · A	20	45	35→40	55→30	46	209/266/267	58	257	2	10	19%	6%	46	-2.0	224/267/299	75	261	3	8	15%	4%	55	-1.4	249/275/330	81	280	3	3	12%	2%	64	-0.2
✕Alvaro Montero 2018 · A	18	48	35→30	52→60	54	219/315/281	62	294	3	16	24%	11%	72	-0.2	215/296/270	55	306	2	18	27%	9%	61	-1.0	232/319/263	31	312	0	30	23%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Emmanuel Morel 2016 · A	19	45	35→30	53→55	49	207/286/270	62	293	2	17	28%	9%	56	-1.3	187/257/246	59	306	2	15	36%	8%	38	-2.6	139/207/173	34	251	0	17	41%	7%	-4	-1.2
✕Dubal Baez 2012 · A	19	46	34→30	52→60	47	210/307/262	52	296	2	16	27%	8%	65	-0.7	218/295/268	50	299	1	19	25%	7%	60	-1.0	222/294/257	35	301	0	26	24%	7%	53	-0.4
✕Jorge Ruiz 2023 · A	19	50→48	36→40	51→50	45	233/285/301	67	276	2	13	16%	5%	63	-0.8	224/276/298	74	287	4	12	22%	5%	59	-1.1	216/269/284	68	281	3	13	23%	5%	50	-1.3
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→46	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	49	-1.8	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	59	-1.1	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Raynel Delgado 2019 · A	19	49→56	36→40	50→60	45	223/289/290	67	330	3	11	31%	8%	63	-0.9	204/258/276	72	303	4	10	32%	6%	45	-2.1	242/304/336	94	333	8	32	28%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Iraj Serrano 2018 · A	19	47	34→30	51→50	51	214/292/270	56	266	1	12	19%	8%	59	-1.1	203/294/250	47	266	1	9	22%	10%	56	-1.3	181/288/203	22	238	0	9	21%	11%	39	-0.9
✕Yonny Hernández 2017 · A	19	47→57	34→30	53→60	52	216/292/271	55	261	1	19	16%	8%	59	-1.1	225/304/282	57	280	1	24	18%	9%	67	-0.5	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Carlos Willoughby 2008 · A	19	48→42	36→40	53→60	49	225/302/290	65	279	3	17	19%	7%	69	-0.4	231/314/298	67	298	2	28	21%	9%	76	+0.0	235/320/307	72	303	1	35	20%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Emmanuel Avila 2008 · A	19	43→53	35→45	50→45	45	199/268/263	64	272	2	8	26%	7%	47	-1.9	211/249/274	63	258	4	6	19%	4%	40	-2.4	268/309/352	83	293	9	4	12%	4%	85	+0.5
✕James Beresford 2008 · A	19	47→57	34→30	49→45	43	221/267/269	48	287	2	10	23%	6%	46	-2.0	236/283/276	40	301	1	7	20%	6%	55	-1.4	277/309/327	49	326	1	6	15%	4%	75	+0.0
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	41→44	34→30	51→55	42	194/257/244	49	275	2	16	28%	6%	37	-2.6	213/312/258	45	291	1	19	24%	11%	66	-0.6	202/327/232	30	283	1	24	24%	14%	65	-0.3