Hendry Arvelo — OGILVIE

Hendry Arvelo2B DSL LAD Mega

Age 19 L/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION183 act + 18 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .333 / .312

PA18

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP260

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	127	34	3	1	0	29	24	3	12	3	268	415	307	722	39	327	15	18	344	119	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	138	28	2	1	0	18	34	3	12	3	203	308	232	540	29	262	21	11	249	55	-9	+1	—	—	+3	-0.4
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	138	28	2	1	0	18	34	3	12	3	203	308	232	540	29	267	21	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	127	34	3	1	0	29	24	3	12	3	268	415	307	722	39	327	15	18	344	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	138	28	2	1	0	18	34	3	12	3	203	308	232	540	29	262	21	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	138	28	2	1	0	18	34	3	12	3	203	308	232	540	29	262	21	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	LAD	—	183	155	29	5	1	0	19	32	4	9	2	187	292	232	524	45	228	17	10	236	46	-12	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	LAD	—	183	144	34	6	1	0	30	22	4	9	2	236	382	292	674	56	270	12	16	315	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	LAD	0%	18	16	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	250	333	312	646	62	264	22	11	261	62	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	LAD	—	201	171	33	6	1	0	21	36	4	10	2	193	296	240	536	47	237	18	10	238	47	-13	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	LAD	34%	242	215	45	8	1	2	22	52	3	5	1	209	292	284	575	74	267	21	9	272	70	-9	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAD	48%	364	322	71	12	2	5	34	77	5	9	2	220	305	317	621	96	270	21	9	281	76	-10	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAD	54%	452	401	89	15	3	7	42	95	6	11	2	222	305	327	632	105	272	21	9	287	80	-11	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	509	450	101	17	3	8	47	107	7	12	3	224	308	329	636	104	273	21	9	291	83	-10	+1	+0	+2	+11	0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	547	483	108	18	3	9	51	114	8	13	3	224	308	329	637	106	274	21	9	293	84	-10	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	568	502	113	19	3	10	53	118	8	14	3	225	309	335	644	110	274	21	9	294	85	-10	+2	+0	+2	+12	0.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAD	56%	579	512	115	19	3	10	54	121	8	14	3	225	308	332	640	107	274	21	9	295	86	-10	+2	+0	+2	+13	0.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	582	514	115	19	3	10	55	122	8	14	3	224	308	331	639	107	274	21	9	295	86	-10	+2	+0	+2	+13	0.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	578	509	114	19	3	10	56	122	8	14	3	224	311	332	643	108	273	21	10	294	85	-10	+2	-1	+2	+13	0.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	LAD	53%	570	502	113	19	3	10	55	121	8	13	3	225	312	335	646	110	272	21	10	292	84	-11	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	560	493	109	18	3	9	54	120	8	13	3	221	308	325	633	103	271	21	10	289	82	-12	+1	-2	+2	+12	0.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	LAD	60%	546	480	105	17	3	9	53	119	8	12	3	219	307	323	630	104	269	22	10	285	79	-14	+1	-3	+2	+12	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	LAD	34%	83	74	16	3	0	1	8	18	1	2	0	216	301	297	599	81	263	22	10	259	70	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAD	48%	176	156	34	6	1	2	16	37	2	4	1	218	299	308	607	90	266	21	9	268	76	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAD	54%	245	217	48	8	1	4	23	52	3	6	1	221	305	323	627	101	268	21	9	274	80	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	288	255	56	9	1	5	27	60	4	7	2	220	304	322	626	102	269	21	9	278	83	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	309	273	61	10	2	5	29	65	4	8	2	223	307	330	637	106	270	21	9	280	84	-6	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	321	283	65	11	2	6	30	67	5	8	2	230	314	346	661	117	270	21	9	282	85	-6	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAD	56%	327	288	65	11	2	6	31	68	5	8	2	226	312	340	652	115	270	21	9	282	86	-6	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	323	284	65	11	2	6	31	68	5	8	2	229	316	345	661	116	270	21	10	282	86	-5	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	317	279	63	10	2	6	30	67	5	8	2	226	312	341	653	115	269	21	9	282	85	-6	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	LAD	53%	305	269	59	10	1	5	29	65	4	7	2	219	305	320	624	100	268	21	10	280	84	-6	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	320	282	61	10	1	5	31	69	4	7	2	216	303	312	615	96	267	22	10	277	82	-7	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	LAD	60%	325	286	61	10	1	5	31	71	5	7	2	213	301	308	609	94	265	22	10	273	79	-8	+1	-2	+1	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3339	2946	654	109	16	56	316	707	47	80	20	222	307	327	634	105	272	21	9	278	82	-69	+8	-4	+12	+72	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	127	21	3	11	62	138	9	16	4	222	307	326	634	105	271	21	10	278	82	-13	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	6275	5537	1230	203	34	99	596	1326	88	157	35	222	308	325	632	103	273	21	9	289	82	-128	+16	-7	+22	+132	3.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	128	21	4	10	62	137	9	16	4	223	309	326	634	103	274	21	10	289	82	-14	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.3	3,487	55	82	224	305	328	+12	+7	4.4	4.0
/162	664	11	16	+2.4	+1.3	0.8	pk7: 4
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hendry Arvelo (OGILVIE)	19	45	20	60	60	203/289/265	62	264	1	4	22%	9%	62	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Reyes 2018 · A	19	45	36→45	55	44	211/255/282	71	259	2	13	19%	5%	51	-2.2	226/279/325	99	265	7	15	17%	6%	70	-0.8	248/303/371	123	270	10	25	12%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→53	37→40	55→45	52	227/294/304	76	279	3	16	19%	8%	72	-0.7	235/294/322	87	300	4	9	22%	7%	76	-0.4	240/296/326	86	300	4	8	20%	6%	74	-0.5
✕Victor Padron 2013 · A	19	46	37→30	53→55	51	217/289/294	76	266	4	10	19%	8%	68	-1.0	230/291/277	47	289	1	15	19%	8%	63	-1.3	242/307/262	20	301	0	20	18%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Alvaro Montero 2018 · A	18	48	35→30	52→60	54	219/315/281	62	294	3	16	24%	11%	76	-0.4	215/296/270	55	306	2	18	27%	9%	65	-1.2	232/319/263	31	312	0	30	23%	9%	71	-0.4
✕Andy Pineda 2016 · A	19	48	34→30	51→55	48	222/297/277	55	296	2	20	24%	8%	67	-1.1	220/275/285	65	292	3	18	24%	6%	60	-1.6	196/229/220	24	256	0	28	22%	3%	24	-1.1
✕Ayendy Perez 2013 · A	19	46	35→30	49→60	48	211/290/270	59	283	1	12	24%	8%	63	-1.4	229/292/289	60	291	1	24	20%	7%	67	-1.1	241/299/295	54	302	0	33	19%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Jorge Minyety 2010 · A	19	46	35→30	50	55	208/299/269	61	275	1	14	22%	11%	67	-1.1	215/285/280	65	301	2	9	27%	9%	63	-1.4	224/291/259	35	315	0	4	26%	9%	56	-0.4
✕Emmanuel Morel 2016 · A	19	45	35→30	53→55	49	207/286/270	62	293	2	17	28%	9%	61	-1.5	187/257/246	59	306	2	15	36%	8%	45	-2.7	139/207/173	34	251	0	17	41%	7%	8	-1.1
✕Dubal Baez 2012 · A	19	46	34→30	52→60	47	210/307/262	52	296	2	16	27%	8%	69	-0.9	218/295/268	50	299	1	19	25%	7%	65	-1.2	222/294/257	35	301	0	26	24%	7%	58	-0.5
✕Jorge Ruiz 2023 · A	19	51	35→40	51→50	45	235/287/302	67	278	2	13	16%	5%	68	-1.0	227/279/300	73	291	4	12	22%	5%	65	-1.2	221/275/290	68	289	3	13	23%	5%	59	-1.3
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→45	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	55	-2.0	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→40	54→50	43	225/276/311	86	292	5	14	24%	6%	66	-1.1	253/298/346	93	309	6	11	19%	6%	82	+0.0	272/321/361	89	314	4	8	14%	6%	93	+0.7
✕Carlos Willoughby 2008 · A	19	48→44	36→40	53→60	49	225/302/290	65	279	3	17	19%	7%	72	-0.7	231/314/298	67	298	2	28	21%	9%	78	-0.3	235/320/307	72	303	1	35	20%	9%	80	-0.0
✕Alain Camou 2023 · A	19	51	37→40	46→50	53	240/305/319	80	282	3	10	16%	8%	79	-0.2	208/265/274	66	271	2	6	22%	7%	53	-2.1	181/234/228	47	241	0	2	23%	6%	30	-0.9
✕Wilbis Santiago 2016 · A	20	45	35→40	55→30	46	209/266/267	58	257	2	10	19%	6%	53	-2.1	224/267/299	75	261	3	8	15%	4%	60	-1.6	247/273/328	81	279	3	3	12%	2%	67	-0.4
✕Yonny Hernández 2017 · A	19	47→57	34→30	53→60	52	216/292/271	55	261	1	19	16%	8%	64	-1.3	225/304/280	55	278	1	24	18%	9%	70	-0.8	265/327/322	57	316	2	17	16%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Alek Thomas 2019 · A	19	50→54	38→50	51→50	44	238/283/324	87	297	4	10	21%	6%	72	-0.7	243/298/367	124	326	10	10	27%	7%	87	+0.4	246/302/387	142	310	12	11	24%	7%	91	+0.6
✕Michael Chirinos 2019 · A	19	49	36→40	51→55	56	226/296/292	67	252	4	11	12%	9%	70	-0.8	223/285/300	77	247	6	14	12%	8%	68	-1.0	217/274/284	67	224	7	22	7%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Drew Cumberland 2008 · A	19	48	36→45	52→55	46	224/280/288	65	272	3	11	18%	6%	63	-1.4	250/302/333	83	296	5	18	16%	6%	81	-0.1	274/323/376	102	320	7	22	16%	6%	95	+0.5
✕Iraj Serrano 2018 · A	19	47	34→30	51→50	51	214/292/270	56	266	1	12	19%	8%	63	-1.3	203/294/250	47	266	1	9	22%	10%	61	-1.5	181/288/203	22	238	0	9	21%	11%	46	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps