Hendry Arvelo

2B DSL LAD Mega

Age 20 L/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1895ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	160	.268/.415/.307	0	12	44	—	.176/.296/.206
2026	19	ROKDSL LAD Mega	183	.236/.382/.292	0	9	34	—	.157/.275/.196
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBLAD	293	.212/.290/.279	2	6	64	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBLAD	49	.212/.291/.287	0	1	70	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBLAD	116	.216/.295/.300	1	3	74	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%95

K%90

Whiff%87

Chase%71

BB%57

Speed49

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsYoyner Fajardo (age 20) · Wilbis Santiago (age 20) · Luis Durango (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 95 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .288 / .276

PA95

HR1

K%23

BB%9

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	127	34	3	1	0	29	24	3	12	3	268	415	307	722	39	327	15	18	344	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	183	144	34	6	1	0	30	22	4	9	2	236	382	292	674	56	270	12	16	315	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	136	24	2	1	0	20	29	3	12	3	176	296	206	501	29	216	18	12	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	183	153	24	4	1	0	21	27	4	9	2	157	275	196	471	39	175	15	11	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	136	24	2	1	0	20	29	3	12	3	176	296	206	501	29	222	18	12	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	127	34	3	1	0	29	24	3	12	3	268	415	307	722	39	327	15	18	344	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	183	153	24	4	1	0	21	27	4	9	2	157	275	196	471	39	185	15	11	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	—	183	144	34	6	1	0	30	22	4	9	2	236	382	292	674	56	270	12	16	315	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	136	24	2	1	0	20	29	3	12	3	176	296	206	501	29	216	18	12	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	183	156	24	4	1	0	21	27	4	9	2	154	275	192	468	38	175	15	11	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	160	136	24	2	1	0	20	29	3	12	3	176	296	206	501	29	216	18	12	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	183	156	24	4	1	0	21	27	4	9	2	154	275	192	468	38	175	15	11	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	LAD	0%	293	262	55	8	2	2	26	69	3	6	1	212	290	279	569	67	278	24	9	263	64	-13	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAD	34%	144	128	27	4	1	1	13	33	2	3	1	217	295	295	590	78	280	23	9	271	70	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAD	48%	239	213	47	7	2	3	21	55	3	6	1	220	299	308	606	87	282	23	9	277	74	-7	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAD	54%	334	298	66	10	2	4	29	77	4	8	2	224	301	318	620	95	283	23	9	283	77	-9	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	398	355	81	13	3	6	35	91	5	10	2	226	304	327	631	101	285	23	9	287	80	-9	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAD	56%	436	390	89	14	3	7	38	100	5	11	3	228	305	333	639	106	285	23	9	290	82	-9	+1	+0	+2	+9	0.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAD	56%	455	407	93	15	3	8	40	104	5	11	3	228	305	335	640	107	285	23	9	290	83	-9	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	462	413	94	15	3	8	41	106	5	11	3	227	304	332	636	105	284	23	9	289	82	-10	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	461	412	93	15	3	7	41	107	5	10	3	225	302	327	629	102	283	23	9	286	80	-11	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	LAD	53%	453	405	90	14	3	7	40	106	5	9	3	222	299	321	620	98	282	23	9	282	77	-12	+1	-1	+2	+10	-0.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	443	397	88	14	3	6	39	105	4	9	3	219	295	313	608	94	280	24	9	278	74	-14	+1	-2	+2	+10	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAD	34%	49	44	8	1	0	0	4	11	1	1	0	212	291	287	578	75	274	22	8	266	70	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAD	48%	116	104	22	3	1	1	10	27	1	3	1	216	295	300	595	84	276	23	9	273	74	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAD	54%	181	161	35	5	1	2	16	42	2	4	1	219	298	312	609	92	277	23	9	278	77	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	221	197	43	7	1	3	19	51	3	5	1	222	300	321	620	99	278	23	9	283	80	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAD	56%	244	218	48	7	1	4	21	56	3	6	1	224	301	327	629	104	279	23	9	286	82	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAD	56%	256	228	50	8	1	4	23	58	3	6	1	224	301	329	630	105	278	23	9	286	83	-5	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	256	228	50	8	1	4	23	59	3	6	2	223	300	326	626	103	278	23	9	285	82	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	253	226	50	8	1	4	22	59	3	6	1	221	298	321	619	100	277	23	9	282	80	-6	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	LAD	53%	242	216	47	7	1	4	21	57	3	5	1	218	296	315	610	96	276	24	9	278	77	-7	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	253	226	49	7	1	4	22	60	3	5	2	215	292	307	599	92	274	24	9	274	74	-8	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2071	1848	402	61	9	30	181	480	25	47	11	218	296	309	605	91	276	23	9	281	75	-52	+5	-2	+7	+45	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	126	19	3	9	57	151	8	15	3	217	297	307	603	90	277	23	9	281	75	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4263	3793	835	130	29	58	386	962	51	111	29	220	301	316	616	95	278	23	9	279	75	-101	+8	-4	+14	+85	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	127	20	4	9	59	147	8	17	4	220	301	315	616	95	277	23	9	279	75	-17	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 183 PAwOBA .315 → .218 (−97)K% 12.0% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.02%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	14.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.39%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.985	11.30%
HBP% /PA	2.19%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	1.51%
Singles /BIP	22.13%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.988	×0.985	14.64%
Doubles /BIP	4.92%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.988	×0.985	2.87%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.988	×0.985	0.48%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .315 → .218; ISO .056 → .035; BABIP .270 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 160 PAwOBA .339 → .233 (−105)K% 15.0% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷1.007	×1.220	—	—	18.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.12%	÷1.022	×0.700	—	×0.995	12.36%
HBP% /PA	1.88%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	1.31%
Singles /BIP	29.13%	÷1.031	×0.680	×1.028	×0.995	19.65%
Doubles /BIP	2.91%	÷1.093	×0.600	×1.028	×0.995	1.64%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.028	×0.995	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.075	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 106, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .339 → .233; ISO .039 → .023; BABIP .327 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#3Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#5Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
#6Wayne Tolleson'81-'90 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,613 PA	3.9	2,613	9	108	237*	307*	304*	+16	+5	0.4	1.9
/162	664	2	27	+4.0	+1.2	0.1	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.3	2,165	31	49	225	299	324	+8	+6	1.7	1.7
/162	664	10	15	+2.4	+1.8	0.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hendry Arvelo (OGILVIE)	20	45	20	60	60	210/288/276	66	278	1	2	23%	9%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2019 · A	20	46→56	37→40	57→60	51	211/279/293	82	248	2	14	16%	8%	63	-1.3	227/286/295	68	281	2	19	19%	6%	67	-1.1	260/318/350	90	329	5	34	21%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Wilbis Santiago 2016 · A	20	42	34→40	55→30	48	195/256/250	55	233	2	10	17%	6%	45	-2.7	211/255/280	69	244	3	8	14%	4%	51	-2.2	245/270/324	80	276	3	3	12%	2%	65	-0.4
✕Luis Durango 2023 · A	20	45	35→30	53→70	48	209/290/266	57	271	3	24	22%	8%	63	-1.4	216/288/274	58	294	2	32	25%	6%	63	-1.3	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→55	37→40	55→45	52	229/297/306	77	281	3	16	19%	9%	73	-0.6	243/304/333	90	311	4	9	22%	7%	82	-0.0	249/308/338	89	311	4	8	20%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	46	37→40	52→50	48	213/291/294	80	278	3	12	23%	8%	69	-0.9	206/275/275	69	326	3	10	34%	7%	59	-1.7	169/246/196	27	334	0	12	45%	7%	28	-0.7
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	46	37→45	47→55	56	216/300/287	72	267	3	12	19%	11%	71	-0.8	208/277/303	95	322	9	15	35%	8%	65	-1.2	191/260/285	94	305	11	18	38%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Yeniel Laboy 2024 · A	20	43	37→30	52→45	47	200/283/268	68	287	5	8	29%	9%	61	-1.5	199/274/263	64	285	4	7	29%	8%	55	-1.9	166/248/183	18	241	0	3	28%	9%	26	-1.3
✕Jean Carlos Sio 2024 · A	20	41→51	36→45	51→50	51	192/268/258	66	238	4	13	20%	9%	52	-2.2	221/300/315	94	287	8	11	24%	8%	78	-0.3	224/303/331	107	289	11	12	25%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Jose Escobar 2024 · A	19	46→56	39→40	55→45	42	220/276/306	85	277	6	14	22%	5%	65	-1.2	227/297/326	99	296	8	9	24%	7%	78	-0.3	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jake Fox 2023 · A	20	46→44	39→40	55→50	52	216/312/311	95	298	6	15	27%	11%	81	-0.1	202/278/301	99	278	7	11	27%	9%	65	-1.2	203/291/297	94	273	5	13	25%	11%	68	-0.5
✕Jorge Ruiz 2024 · A	20	54→52	38→40	51→50	45	252/308/336	85	308	4	12	19%	6%	84	+0.2	226/274/301	75	294	4	13	23%	5%	63	-1.3	220/267/292	72	284	3	13	23%	5%	56	-1.5
✕Dario Laverde 2024 · A	19	46→34	37→40	52→30	50	214/292/297	83	279	3	11	23%	9%	70	-0.9	207/268/284	77	295	4	4	29%	7%	57	-1.8	196/254/265	68	282	4	0	30%	6%	45	-1.6
✕Marco Vargas 2024 · A	19	45→46	37→40	50→60	57	208/302/289	81	267	4	13	22%	12%	72	-0.7	214/295/280	66	304	3	25	27%	10%	67	-1.1	220/295/283	63	320	3	36	29%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Luis Valenzuela 2014 · A	20	40	37→45	53→45	47	191/248/264	73	236	4	9	20%	7%	45	-2.7	228/257/313	85	294	5	8	23%	4%	59	-1.7	263/285/365	102	319	5	7	19%	2%	78	-0.1
✕Matt Cerda 2010 · A	20	43→53	38→40	50→40	46	207/264/285	78	263	6	6	23%	7%	56	-1.9	239/314/318	79	300	3	4	19%	10%	82	+0.0	241/325/315	74	303	3	4	19%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→51	39→45	59→55	46	195/272/287	91	280	4	17	30%	9%	60	-1.6	220/296/307	87	294	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Darryl Collins 2022 · A	20	45	38→40	50→45	51	212/292/289	77	265	5	11	21%	9%	68	-1.0	209/287/289	80	273	4	11	23%	9%	66	-1.1	198/286/277	79	269	1	9	24%	11%	64	-0.7
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→56	37→40	56→55	45	224/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	206/266/261	55	280	1	18	25%	7%	51	-2.3	246/312/318	73	319	3	11	22%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2011 · A	20	54→59	36→40	54→55	45	251/301/319	68	321	2	17	22%	6%	77	-0.3	254/308/346	92	329	4	24	22%	7%	86	+0.3	240/297/328	88	314	4	25	23%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Esteban González 2022 · A	19	45	37→45	55	47	206/288/291	85	281	2	12	25%	8%	68	-1.0	208/275/302	94	298	6	18	30%	6%	65	-1.2	207/269/318	111	298	8	29	32%	5%	64	-0.5

Hendry Arvelo

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps