Player 829204 P ACL Brewers
Age — —HP ROK peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINST109
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%23.3%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
K: +1.0 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+1KBB: -5.9 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-6BBCONTACT: -3.8 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-4CONTACTSTAM: +2.7 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+3STAMTotal WAR: -0.64 (61 IP)-0.6WAR
0.10.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career (MLE) + Projections

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026ROKACL Brewers113361744436327%3.217.2%25.9%-8.7%2.4%8.076.25-0.7
ROSMLBMIL24025106251030%1.023.3%9.5%13.7%3.0%4.374.37+0.1
2026 TotalMLBMIL612806946624.5%16.5%8.0%2.2%6.555.47-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202725MLBMIL24025107251030%1.123.7%9.2%14.5%3.0%4.314.28+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career113361743045427%3.217.2%25.9%-8.7%2.4%8.076.25-0.7
/ 200 IP62172009761682522227%3.217.2%25.9%-8.7%2.4%8.076.25-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Player 829204 (OGILVIE) 4.37 23.3%9.5%3.0%
Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 25 SW 4.06 18.9%9.0%2.6%.311 4.48 17.3%3.8%141 +0.42 3.63 281 78
Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP 25 SP- 3.37 20.3%8.8%1.6%.278 5.10 15.8%6.7%73 +1.73 3.37 119 77
Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.05 FIP 25 SU 4.05 19.7%5.3%3.5%.283 3.86 19.3%11.7%124 -0.19 3.47 171 77
Tristan Stevens R 2026 · 4.28 FIP 25 SW 4.28 17.3%8.2%2.9%.411 3.71 15.0%7.7%91 -0.57 3.71 126 76
Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP 25 SW 4.65 17.1%9.6%3.2%.289 3.44 20.0%7.8%45 -1.21 1.94 143 75
Michael King R 2026 · 4.55 FIP 25 SW 4.55 21.5%9.1%3.8%.316 2.73 28.3%20.8%219 -1.82 1.96 948 75
Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 25 SW 4.24 18.0%9.4%2.7%.292 5.88 13.1%1.2%46 +1.64 3.14 271 74
Jake Lyons R 2025 · 4.31 FIP 24 SW 4.31 20.1%8.5%3.4%.337 4.31 174 74
Dylan King R 2026 · 4.28 FIP 25 SW 4.28 26.7%9.8%4.0%.266 4.28 121 73
Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP 25 SW 3.89 19.0%7.3%2.7%.331 5.46 20.8%10.6%47 +1.57 3.89 141 73
Darien Smith R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 25 SU 3.47 17.6%8.5%1.4%.253 4.67 19.0%6.1%32 +1.20 3.47 102 73
Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP 25 SP- 4.76 20.8%10.1%3.9%.380 4.51 19.3%7.9%101 -0.25 4.50 119 72
Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 4.42 102 72
Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 25 SP- 3.47 20.3%11.4%1.2%.286 3.51 23.2%10.9%71 +0.04 2.45 138 72
Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.48 FIP 25 SW 3.48 23.7%8.9%2.3%.317 3.80 23.3%8.6%38 +0.32 3.48 331 72
Brayden Spears R 2026 · 4.25 FIP 25 SU 4.25 19.9%10.9%2.6%.311 4.07 105 71
Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 25 SW 4.72 19.9%9.3%3.9%.315 4.72 146 71
Jose Samayoa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP 26 SW 3.56 16.6%9.9%1.1%.286 4.12 17.3%9.4%226 +0.56 3.56 262 71
Coleman Huntley III R 2029 · 4.14 FIP 28 SW 4.14 20.2%7.4%3.3%.348 3.66 23.4%13.2%86 -0.48 2.38 160 70
Joe Vogatsky R 2025 · 4.82 FIP 24 SU 4.82 21.0%8.8%4.3%.326 4.82 120 70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION22523.5%9.4%1.164.34
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
Randall Delgado ('17)37022.2%9.2%0.903.78
Santiago Casilla ('18)45223.5%9.6%0.963.49
Brandon Maurer ('18)45321.5%8.8%1.065.20
David Hernandez ('19)55425.0%7.9%1.144.10
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41