Dawson Netz — OGILVIE

Dawson Netz P Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 203 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%20.1%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	9	64	275	66	26	6	50%	3.5	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	3.0%	4.95	4.98	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	9	64	275	66	26	6	50%	3.5	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	3.0%	4.95	4.98	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	9	64	275	66	26	6	50%	3.5	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	2.2%	4.95	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	24	17	86	345	103	35	8	71%	3.6	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	2.8%	2.94	4.00	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	24	17	86	345	103	35	8	71%	3.6	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	2.8%	2.94	4.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CHC	24	17	86	345	103	35	8	71%	3.6	29.9%	10.1%	19.7%	2.3%	2.94	3.14	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	84	354	73	42	10	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.85	+0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	83	349	72	40	10	100%	5.9	20.7%	11.5%	9.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.84	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	80	338	70	39	10	100%	6.2	20.7%	11.5%	9.2%	3.1%	4.86	4.89	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	76	323	73	35	11	100%	5.9	22.5%	10.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.78	4.74	+0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	72	304	67	34	10	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.92	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	37	156	32	18	4	100%	6.2	20.6%	11.8%	8.9%	2.8%	4.80	4.79	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	52	220	45	25	6	100%	5.8	20.7%	11.5%	9.2%	2.9%	4.77	4.78	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	52	29	8	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.5%	9.2%	3.0%	4.80	4.83	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	62	262	59	28	8	100%	6.2	22.5%	10.8%	11.6%	3.1%	4.71	4.67	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	62	262	58	29	9	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	3.3%	4.79	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	274	1156	247	131	35	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.40	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	180	96	26	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		42	26	149	620	129	74	18	62%	3.6	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	2.9%	3.80	4.43	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	35	200	830	172	99	24	62%	3.6	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	2.9%	3.80	4.43	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dawson Netz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	20.1%	12.3%	2.9%	—	4.86	20.7%	9.1%	247	-0.09	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	81
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	81
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	79
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	78
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	78
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	77
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	77
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	77
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	77
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	76
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.30	22.5%	7.6%	102	-0.46	3.74	283	76
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	75
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	75
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	75
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	75
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	75
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	72	21.2%	11.4%	1.21	4.85
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58