Dawson Netz
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 203 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%22.4%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 9 | 64 | 275 | 66 | 26 | 6 | 50% | 3.5 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.27 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 9 | 64 | 275 | 66 | 26 | 6 | 50% | 3.5 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 4.95 | 3.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 15 | 9 | 51 | 205 | 59 | 20 | 6 | 60% | 3.4 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 2.81 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 36 | 150 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 87 | 355 | 93 | 35 | 10 | — | — | 26.1% | 9.8% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 3.49 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.09 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 36 | 150 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 16 | 69 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.06 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 86 | 25 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 18 | 115 | 480 | 93 | 58 | 17 | 55% | 3.5 | 19.4% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 3.99 | 4.90 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 31 | 200 | 835 | 162 | 100 | 29 | 55% | 3.5 | 19.4% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 3.99 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dawson Netz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 36 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 85 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 83 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 82 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 80 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 79 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 79 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 78 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 77 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 76 |
| Michael King R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.55 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .316 | 2.73 | 28.3% | 20.8% | 219 | -1.82 | 1.96 | 948 | 76 |
| Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 76 |
| Chase Centala R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 76 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 75 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 74 |
| Greyfer Eregua R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.85 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 126 | 74 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 74 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 74 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .273 | 4.29 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 172 | -0.12 | 3.36 | 432 | 73 |
| Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 73 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .294 | 5.41 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.39 | 2.76 | 198 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 36 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 1.15 | 4.46 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |