Dawson Netz

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 203 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1235ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX4 levels	18	9	64	4.95	3.48	24.0%	9.5%	—	K 16.4% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.98
2026	25	AACHC	24	17	86	2.94	3.14	29.9%	10.1%	—	K 24.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.00
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	1	1	1	4.53	4.53	23.6%	11.4%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCHC	4	4	25	4.47	4.49	23.5%	11.2%	0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCHC	6	6	37	4.51	4.55	23.4%	11.2%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 2.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Mitch Neunborn (age 26) · Sean Mooney (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%23.6%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	9	64	275	66	26	6	50%	3.5	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	3.0%	4.95	4.98	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	9	64	275	66	26	6	50%	3.5	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	3.0%	4.95	4.98	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	9	64	275	66	26	6	50%	3.5	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	2.2%	4.95	3.48	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	24	17	86	345	103	35	8	71%	3.6	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	2.8%	2.94	4.00	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	24	17	86	345	103	35	8	71%	3.6	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	2.8%	2.94	4.00	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	24	17	86	345	103	35	8	71%	3.6	29.9%	10.1%	19.7%	2.3%	2.94	3.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	67	283	67	32	8	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.2%	12.3%	3.0%	4.53	4.55	+0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	63	265	62	30	8	100%	6.3	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.1%	4.57	4.61	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	58	245	57	28	8	100%	5.8	23.2%	11.3%	11.8%	3.2%	4.66	4.73	+0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	52	221	50	26	8	100%	5.8	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.90	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	25	106	25	12	3	100%	6.2	23.5%	11.2%	12.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.49	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	37	156	37	18	5	100%	6.2	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.51	4.55	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	41	173	40	20	5	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.3%	11.8%	3.1%	4.59	4.66	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	41	173	40	20	6	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.3%	4.73	4.83	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	145	611	142	69	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	11.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.59	4.27	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	196	95	26	100%	6.0	23.2%	11.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.59	4.27	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		42	26	149	620	129	74	18	62%	3.6	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	2.9%	3.80	4.43	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	35	200	830	172	99	24	62%	3.6	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	2.9%	3.80	4.43	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 86 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.00 (+0.86)K% 29.9% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.86%	—	×0.810	24.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.14%	—	×1.100	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.32%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 34 IPFIP 3.97 → 5.76 (+1.80)K% 21.9% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.85%	—	×0.680	14.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.93%	—	×1.250	12.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.868	×1.400	4.27%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 5.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 17 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.21 (+0.86)K% 26.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.87%	—	×0.740	19.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.180	14.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 10 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.81 (+0.94)K% 27.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.770	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.106	×1.250	5.14%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dawson Netz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	23.6%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.63	23.4%	12.1%	188	+0.10	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	82
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	81
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	79
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	76
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	76
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	74
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	74
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	74
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	74
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	73
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	73
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	73
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	72
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	72
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	72
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	72
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	71
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	71
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	58	23.3%	11.3%	1.20	4.61
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*