Victor Diaz

P Dayton Dragons

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ACIN	27	39	7.78	3.28	24.2%	17.4%	—	K 17.9% · BB 20.5% · FIP 4.18
2026	23	MIX2 levels	37	60	4.33	3.53	30.3%	15.5%	—	K 25.6% · BB 18.6% · FIP 4.79
2027PROJ	24	MLBCIN	31	33	5.29	5.29	23.8%	17.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCIN	23	24	5.04	4.94	24.1%	15.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCIN	35	37	4.92	4.87	24.3%	14.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCJ Weins (age 23) · Craig Schlitter (age 24) · Zane Russell (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%23.8%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%5.9%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	27	0	39	190	46	33	0	0%	1.5	17.9%	20.5%	-2.6%	0.0%	7.78	4.18	—
2025	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	27	0	39	190	46	33	0	0%	1.5	17.9%	20.5%	-2.6%	0.0%	7.78	4.18	—
2025	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	27	0	39	190	46	33	0	0%	1.5	24.2%	17.4%	6.8%	0.0%	7.78	3.28	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	60	277	84	43	5	0%	1.6	25.6%	18.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.33	4.79	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	60	277	84	43	5	0%	1.6	25.6%	18.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.33	4.79	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	60	277	84	43	5	0%	1.6	30.3%	15.5%	14.8%	1.8%	4.33	3.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CIN	31	0	33	139	33	25	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	17.9%	5.9%	2.8%	5.29	5.29	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	52	0	55	232	56	36	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	15.3%	8.8%	2.8%	5.04	4.94	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	52	0	55	232	56	34	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	14.8%	9.4%	2.8%	4.92	4.87	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	23	0	24	101	24	16	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	15.3%	8.8%	2.8%	5.04	4.94	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	35	0	37	156	38	23	4	0%	1.1	24.3%	14.8%	9.4%	2.8%	4.92	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	254	62	38	7	0%	1.1	24.2%	15.0%	9.2%	2.8%	4.97	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	206	126	23	0%	1.1	24.2%	15.0%	9.2%	2.8%	4.97	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		64	0	100	467	105	90	8	0%	1.6	22.4%	19.4%	3.1%	1.6%	5.69	4.55	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	0	200	937	210	181	15	0%	1.6	22.4%	19.4%	3.1%	1.6%	5.69	4.55	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	23.8%	17.9%	2.8%	—	4.91	24.2%	9.1%	110	-0.38	—	—	—
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	89
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	89
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	88
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	87
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	87
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	86
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	86
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	86
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	85
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	85
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	84
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	84
Isaac Stebens R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.14	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.01	4.13	102	84
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	83
Isaac Gallegos R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.9%	17.8%	1.8%	.267	3.09	19.9%	10.5%	106	-1.31	2.89	125	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	24.1%	15.7%	1.10	5.05
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*