Isaac Stebens
P
Greenville Drive
Age 24
RHP
5'11" / 194 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133123vR 114
ERA5.04
FIP5.04
K%22.3%
BB%15.5%
K-BB%6.8%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 62 | 278 | 87 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 8.8% | 2.0% | 3.18 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 62 | 278 | 87 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 31.3% | 12.6% | 18.7% | 1.4% | 3.18 | 2.83 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 38 | 0 | 50 | 215 | 59 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 15.5% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 2.15 | 4.06 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 38 | 0 | 50 | 215 | 59 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.4% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 1.4% | 2.15 | 3.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 63 | 44 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 15.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 65 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.86 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 66 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 28 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.86 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 44 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 74 | 314 | 72 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.37 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 116 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 0 | 113 | 493 | 112 | 76 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.8% | 15.4% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 2.72 | 4.07 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 0 | 200 | 875 | 200 | 135 | 15 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.8% | 15.4% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 2.72 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Isaac Stebens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 22.3% | 15.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.76 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 136 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 94 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 91 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 91 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 91 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 90 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 90 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 90 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 90 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.50 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 4.49 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 139 | -0.01 | 3.34 | 252 | 90 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 89 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 88 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 88 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 88 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 88 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 87 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 87 |
| Antonio Knowles R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .250 | 3.13 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 61 | -1.38 | 2.73 | 218 | 87 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.95 | 24.3% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .328 | 3.42 | 26.4% | 17.1% | 108 | -0.53 | 3.10 | 218 | 87 |
| Eduardo Herrera R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.32 | 25.5% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .284 | 4.44 | 16.7% | -5.0% | 31 | +0.12 | 4.32 | 127 | 86 |
| Josh Graham R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.95 | 20.4% | 15.1% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.59 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 70 | -0.36 | 2.15 | 254 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 22.7% | 14.2% | 1.05 | 4.89 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |