Isaac Stebens
P
Greenville Drive
+0.1
WAR
Age 24
RHP
5'11" / 194 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%11.1%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL3030
CMD4545
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 35 | 0 | 62 | 278 | 87 | 35 | 4 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 2.1% | 3.18 | 4.14 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 38 | 0 | 50 | 215 | 59 | 29 | 3 | 21.1% | 15.5% | 1.6% | 2.15 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 49 | 28 | 6 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 51 | 26 | 6 | 23.3% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 51 | 25 | 6 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 51 | 25 | 6 | 23.6% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 25 | 6 | 23.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 48 | 24 | 6 | 23.4% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 47 | 24 | 6 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 44 | 23 | 6 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 22.7% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 40 | 22 | 6 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 37 | 21 | 6 | 22.0% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 21.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 5.17 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 0 | 113 | 493 | 112 | 76 | 9 | 22.8% | 15.4% | 1.9% | 2.72 | 4.15 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 0 | 200 | 875 | 199 | 135 | 16 | 22.8% | 15.4% | 1.9% | 2.72 | 4.15 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Isaac Stebens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.51 | 23.5% | 11.7% | 154 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 94 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 93 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.00 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.03 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.31 | 213 | 92 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 92 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .298 | 4.70 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | +0.09 | 4.23 | 222 | 92 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.91 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.68 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.38 | 188 | 91 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 91 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 91 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 94 | +0.26 | 3.60 | 154 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 90 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .284 | 2.58 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.59 | 1.53 | 433 | 89 |
| Zack Jones R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.56 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 1.3% | .280 | 3.63 | 28.1% | 10.9% | 57 | +0.07 | 2.56 | 109 | 88 |
| Peter Tago R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.66 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.5% | .303 | 3.44 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 39 | -0.22 | 3.26 | 207 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 88 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 88 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.65 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 4.58 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +0.93 | 2.57 | 304 | 88 |
| Bud Jeter R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.71 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .318 | 3.65 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 101 | -0.06 | 3.12 | 226 | 87 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.15 | 172 | 87 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.64 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.22 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.42 | 1.21 | 538 | 87 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.