Isaac Stebens — OGILVIE

Isaac Stebens P Greenville Drive

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 194 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 70 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%22.2%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	62	278	87	35	4	0%	1.8	24.1%	15.3%	8.8%	2.1%	3.18	4.13	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	62	278	87	35	4	0%	1.8	24.1%	15.3%	8.8%	2.1%	3.18	4.13	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	62	278	87	35	4	0%	1.8	31.3%	12.6%	18.7%	1.4%	3.18	2.83	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	38	0	50	215	59	29	3	0%	1.3	21.1%	15.5%	5.6%	1.6%	2.15	4.14	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	38	0	50	215	59	29	3	0%	1.3	21.1%	15.5%	5.6%	1.6%	2.15	4.14	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	38	0	50	215	59	29	3	0%	1.3	27.4%	13.5%	14.0%	1.4%	2.15	3.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	67	0	70	296	66	46	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	15.6%	6.6%	2.9%	5.14	5.14	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	67	0	70	296	67	44	8	0%	1.0	22.6%	14.9%	7.6%	2.9%	5.05	5.04	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	66	0	69	291	66	42	9	0%	1.0	22.6%	14.6%	8.0%	2.9%	5.01	5.02	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	64	0	67	282	64	41	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	14.4%	8.1%	3.0%	5.03	5.07	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	61	0	64	270	60	39	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.5%	7.8%	3.2%	5.12	5.18	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	29	0	30	127	29	19	4	0%	1.0	22.6%	14.9%	7.6%	2.9%	5.05	5.04	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	41	0	43	182	41	26	5	0%	1.0	22.6%	14.6%	8.0%	2.9%	5.01	5.02	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	48	0	50	211	48	30	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	14.4%	8.1%	3.0%	5.03	5.07	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	52	220	49	32	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.5%	7.8%	3.2%	5.12	5.18	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	176	742	167	108	22	0%	1.1	22.5%	14.6%	7.9%	3.0%	5.06	4.71	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	123	25	0%	1.1	22.5%	14.6%	7.9%	3.0%	5.06	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		73	0	113	493	112	76	9	0%	1.5	22.8%	15.4%	7.4%	1.8%	2.72	4.13	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	0	200	875	200	135	16	0%	1.5	22.8%	15.4%	7.4%	1.8%	2.72	4.13	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Stebens (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	22.2%	15.6%	2.9%	—	5.04	22.6%	7.9%	206	-0.10	—	—	—
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	91
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	91
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	90
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	89
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	87
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	86
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	86
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	85
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	85
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	84
Craig Brooks R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	23.4%	15.1%	1.7%	.260	5.58	31.1%	15.9%	59	+1.63	3.23	229	84
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	84
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	527	84
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	84
Antonio Knowles R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	20.9%	15.1%	2.4%	.250	3.28	20.9%	11.7%	66	-1.30	3.24	223	84
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	22.4%	14.8%	1.15	5.07
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52