Samuel Bello — OGILVIE

Samuel Bello P DSL Arizona Red

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%19.3%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	5	0	6	28	7	3	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	0.0%	1.42	2.35	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	5	0	6	28	7	3	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	0.0%	1.42	2.35	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	5	0	6	28	7	3	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	0.0%	1.42	2.31	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	19	0	29	134	23	16	2	0%	1.5	11.7%	14.9%	-3.3%	1.9%	4.08	5.03	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	19	0	29	134	23	16	2	0%	1.5	11.7%	14.9%	-3.3%	1.9%	4.08	5.03	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	19	0	29	134	23	16	2	0%	1.5	17.2%	11.9%	5.2%	1.5%	4.08	4.08	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	21	0	22	100	21	15	2	0%	1.0	14.3%	18.8%	-4.5%	2.8%	6.65	5.81	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	21	0	22	100	21	15	2	0%	1.0	14.3%	18.8%	-4.5%	2.8%	6.65	5.81	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	21	0	22	100	21	15	2	0%	1.0	21.0%	15.0%	6.0%	2.0%	6.65	4.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	—	13	0	14	59	11	9	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	15.4%	3.9%	3.0%	5.44	5.44	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	—	26	0	27	113	23	15	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.4%	7.3%	2.9%	5.15	5.04	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	—	12	0	13	55	11	7	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.4%	7.3%	2.9%	5.15	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	56	12	7	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.4%	7.3%	2.9%	5.15	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	106	30	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.4%	7.3%	2.9%	5.15	4.66	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		45	0	57	262	37	42	5	0%	1.3	14.1%	15.9%	-1.8%	2.0%	4.76	5.04	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	0	200	925	130	147	19	0%	1.3	14.1%	15.9%	-1.8%	2.0%	4.76	5.04	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	19.3%	15.4%	3.0%	—	5.04	20.7%	7.3%	27	-0.40	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	93
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	92
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	90
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	90
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	89
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	283	89
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	88
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	88
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	87
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	87
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	87
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	87
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	86
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	86
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	86
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	86
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	86