Carson Hobbs — OGILVIE

Carson Hobbs P Tulsa Drillers

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 197 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%23.9%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD3540

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	42	180	54	20	5	3%	1.4	18.9%	13.6%	5.3%	4.4%	4.25	5.63	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	42	180	54	20	5	3%	1.4	18.9%	13.6%	5.3%	4.4%	4.25	5.63	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	42	180	54	20	5	3%	1.4	30.0%	11.1%	18.9%	2.8%	4.25	3.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	201	63	21	3	0%	1.3	24.7%	11.8%	12.9%	1.9%	2.04	3.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	201	63	21	3	0%	1.3	24.7%	11.8%	12.9%	1.9%	2.04	3.54	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	53	201	63	21	3	0%	1.3	31.3%	10.4%	20.9%	1.5%	2.04	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	48	1	64	273	68	29	6	2%	1.3	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.6%	3.36	4.32	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	48	1	64	273	68	29	6	2%	1.3	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.6%	3.36	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	LAD	48	1	64	273	68	29	6	2%	1.3	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	2.2%	3.36	3.55	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAD	6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.7%	11.2%	2.8%	4.64	4.64	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	70	299	74	32	7	—	—	24.8%	10.8%	14.0%	2.3%	3.47	4.35	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	65	0	68	287	70	34	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.8%	12.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.49	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	65	0	68	287	70	33	8	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.6%	12.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.46	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	64	0	67	283	69	33	8	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.5%	12.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	62	0	65	274	66	32	8	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.57	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	29	0	30	127	31	15	4	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.8%	12.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.49	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	43	0	45	190	46	22	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.6%	12.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.46	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	52	220	53	25	6	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.5%	12.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	52	0	55	232	56	27	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	0	182	769	187	89	22	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.6%	12.6%	2.9%	4.51	4.13	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	98	24	0%	1.1	24.2%	11.6%	12.6%	2.9%	4.51	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		121	2	160	654	139	80	19	2%	1.3	21.2%	12.2%	9.0%	2.9%	3.16	4.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	3	200	819	174	100	24	2%	1.3	21.2%	12.2%	9.0%	2.9%	3.16	4.44	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Hobbs (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	23.9%	12.7%	2.8%	—	4.48	24.3%	12.6%	203	-0.16	—	—	—
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	93
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	92
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	91
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	90
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	90
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	90
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	89
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	89
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	89
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	89
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	89
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	89
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	88
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	87
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	87
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	87
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	87
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	24.2%	11.8%	1.12	4.54
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64