Carson Hobbs
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 197 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 104
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
K%23.9%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 42 | 180 | 54 | 20 | 5 | 3% | 1.4 | 18.9% | 13.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.25 | 5.55 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 42 | 180 | 54 | 20 | 5 | 3% | 1.4 | 30.0% | 11.1% | 18.9% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 53 | 201 | 63 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.7% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | 2.04 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 53 | 201 | 63 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.3% | 10.4% | 20.9% | 1.5% | 2.04 | 2.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 28 | 1 | 39 | 171 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 4% | 1.4 | 18.5% | 12.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.12 | 5.48 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 68 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 107 | 455 | 107 | 55 | 14 | — | — | 23.5% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.91 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.9% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 70 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 70 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 69 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 66 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 46 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 53 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 56 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 0 | 183 | 774 | 188 | 87 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.09 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 95 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 101 | 2 | 135 | 552 | 115 | 70 | 19 | 2% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 3.34 | 4.81 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 3 | 200 | 820 | 171 | 104 | 28 | 2% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 3.34 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Hobbs (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 23.9% | 12.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.44 | 24.3% | 13.0% | 203 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 92 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 92 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 90 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 90 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 90 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 89 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 104 | 89 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 89 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 89 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 88 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 88 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .315 | 4.51 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 50 | +0.90 | 2.36 | 229 | 88 |
| Peter Tago R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.7% | .303 | 3.43 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 39 | -0.30 | 3.24 | 207 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 87 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 108 | +0.29 | 3.58 | 169 | 86 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 86 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 24.2% | 11.5% | 1.12 | 4.49 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |