Hobie Harris

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 212 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	AAAMIN	44	0	54	6.79	5.16	23.8%	11.9%	—	K 20.4% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.18
2025	32	MIX2 levels	32	1	40	4.05	4.70	25.4%	11.9%	—	K 21.3% · BB 10.9% · FIP 5.15
2026	33	MIX2 levels	21	3	28	2.93	2.96	26.3%	12.7%	—	K 21.9% · BB 11.9% · FIP 3.33
2027PROJ	34	MLBBOS	2	0	2	4.67	4.67	21.7%	10.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBBOS	1	0	1	4.84	4.97	20.9%	11.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo44

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDiego Moreno (age 34) · Leo Rosales (age 34) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%21.7%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP17

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p1219.9%

p109.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.410

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	23	109	25	13	2	0%	1.5	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	1.9%	4.24	4.28	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	23	109	25	13	2	0%	1.5	22.9%	11.9%	11.0%	1.8%	4.24	3.74	—
2016	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	0	52	219	59	19	2	0%	2.3	19.9%	10.2%	9.7%	1.3%	2.60	3.44	—
2016	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	23	0	52	219	59	19	2	0%	2.3	26.9%	8.7%	18.3%	0.9%	2.60	2.43	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	55	238	65	22	2	0%	1.6	20.6%	10.7%	9.8%	1.1%	2.63	3.33	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	55	238	65	22	2	0%	1.6	27.3%	9.2%	18.1%	0.8%	2.63	2.40	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	47	197	55	15	7	0%	1.8	23.8%	5.4%	18.4%	2.8%	2.66	3.31	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	47	197	55	15	7	0%	1.8	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	3.6%	2.66	3.65	—
2019	26	A+ MLE	Tampa Tarpons	29	0	49	210	59	29	5	0%	1.7	21.6%	15.9%	5.8%	3.1%	4.62	4.99	—
2019	26	A+ RAW	Tampa Tarpons	29	0	49	210	59	29	5	0%	1.7	28.1%	13.8%	14.3%	2.4%	4.62	3.80	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	42	0	44	183	51	20	8	0%	1.0	24.5%	11.5%	13.0%	4.4%	3.92	4.92	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	42	0	44	183	51	20	8	0%	1.0	27.9%	10.9%	16.9%	4.4%	3.92	4.52	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	53	0	53	207	56	28	5	0%	1.0	23.8%	14.2%	9.6%	2.8%	2.04	4.43	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	53	0	53	207	56	28	5	0%	1.0	27.1%	13.5%	13.5%	2.4%	2.04	3.80	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	52	249	33	31	5	0%	1.2	11.9%	11.7%	0.2%	2.1%	5.40	4.71	-0.1
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	52	249	33	31	5	0%	1.2	13.3%	12.4%	0.8%	2.0%	5.40	4.88	-0.2
2024	31	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	44	0	54	261	62	31	11	0%	1.2	20.4%	10.7%	9.7%	4.5%	6.79	5.18	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	44	0	54	261	62	31	11	0%	1.2	20.4%	10.7%	9.7%	4.5%	6.79	5.18	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	44	0	54	261	62	31	11	0%	1.2	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	4.2%	6.79	5.16	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	40	177	45	21	7	3%	1.2	21.3%	10.9%	10.4%	4.5%	4.05	5.15	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	40	177	45	21	7	3%	1.2	21.3%	10.9%	10.4%	4.5%	4.05	5.15	—
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	40	177	45	21	7	3%	1.2	25.4%	11.9%	13.6%	4.0%	4.05	4.70	—
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	3	28	118	31	15	1	14%	1.3	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	1.0%	2.93	3.33	—
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	3	28	118	31	15	1	14%	1.3	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	1.0%	2.93	3.33	—
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	3	28	118	31	15	1	14%	1.3	26.3%	12.7%	13.6%	0.8%	2.93	2.96	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	0	19	91	9	13	2	0%	1.2	9.9%	14.3%	-4.4%	2.2%	5.12	5.53	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	BOS	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	BOS	15	0	16	68	14	8	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.3%	9.6%	3.3%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	BOS	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.3%	9.6%	3.3%	4.84	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	20	95	10	13	2	0%	1.2	10.3%	14.2%	-3.8%	2.2%	5.11	5.25	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	0	200	937	99	129	20	0%	1.2	10.3%	14.2%	-3.8%	2.2%	5.11	5.25	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		364	4	496	2168	445	247	59	1%	1.4	20.5%	11.4%	9.1%	2.7%	3.83	4.32	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	2	200	874	179	100	24	1%	1.4	20.5%	11.4%	9.1%	2.7%	3.83	4.32	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 25 IPFIP 3.14 → 3.33 (+0.19)K% 25.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.47%	—	×0.860	21.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×0.900	11.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.04%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 39 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.15 (+0.40)K% 24.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.71%	—	×0.860	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.07%	—	×0.900	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.02%	÷0.984	×1.100	4.50%

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 54 IPFIP 4.91 → 5.18 (+0.27)K% 23.8% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.75%	—	×0.860	20.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.88%	—	×0.900	10.69%
HR / BF /BF	4.21%	÷1.039	×1.100	4.46%

Result: FIP 4.91 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 32 IPFIP 4.30 → 4.38 (+0.08)K% 15.2% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.19%	—	×0.860	13.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.39%	—	×0.900	10.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.058	×1.100	1.98%

Result: FIP 4.30 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANashville Sounds · 53 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.43 (+0.58)K% 27.1% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.05%	—	×0.880	23.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.53%	—	×1.050	14.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷0.946	×1.100	2.81%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 44 IPFIP 4.53 → 4.92 (+0.39)K% 27.9% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.87%	—	×0.880	24.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.93%	—	×1.050	11.48%
HR / BF /BF	4.37%	÷1.081	×1.100	4.45%

Result: FIP 4.53 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Tampa Tarpons · 49 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.99 (+1.20)K% 28.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.10%	—	×0.770	21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.81%	—	×1.150	15.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.960	×1.250	3.10%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Tampa Tarpons · 38 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.31 (+0.74)K% 30.9% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.87%	—	×0.770	23.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.70%	—	×1.150	5.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷1.205	×1.250	2.78%

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hobie Harris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	21.7%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.97	20.9%	9.6%	16	+0.30	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	82
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	80
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	79
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	77
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	76
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	76
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	74
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	73
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	72
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	72
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	72
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	70
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	70
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	70
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	70
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	69
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	68
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	200	68
Travis Smith R 2005 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	17.3%	7.7%	1.9%	.421	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	105	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	16.8%	12.4%	1.07	4.89
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Rich Loiselle ('01)	1.1	56	17.2%	12.0%	0.88	4.38
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*