Brayden Heidel — OGILVIE

Brayden Heidel P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.2%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	15	4	36	171	28	21	5	27%	2.4	11.3%	13.7%	-2.4%	3.2%	7.57	5.62	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	15	4	36	171	28	21	5	27%	2.4	11.3%	13.7%	-2.4%	3.2%	7.57	5.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	TOR	1	0	1	7	3	2	1	0%	1.3	42.9%	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	6.75	10.94	—
2026	24	A RAW	TOR	14	4	34	164	25	19	4	29%	2.4	15.2%	11.6%	3.7%	2.4%	7.60	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TOR	34	0	35	149	33	15	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.60	4.56	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	TOR	14	0	15	63	14	6	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.60	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	14	6	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.60	4.18	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	80	27	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.60	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		15	4	36	171	19	23	5	27%	2.4	11.3%	13.7%	-2.4%	3.2%	7.57	5.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	22	200	959	108	131	30	27%	2.4	11.3%	13.7%	-2.4%	3.2%	7.57	5.62	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayden Heidel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.2%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.56	21.8%	11.7%	35	-0.15	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	86
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	84
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	83
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	83
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	82
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	81
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	80
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	80
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	80
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	79
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	78
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	78
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	78
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.37	27.1%	13.6%	163	-0.08	3.08	344	78
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	78
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	77
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	77
T.J. Weir R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	20.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.319	3.43	19.0%	9.6%	190	-0.54	3.15	349	76
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	76
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	21.6%	10.4%	1.16	4.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78