Victor Rodriguez

Victor Rodriguez P FCL Marlins

Age 19 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%21.3%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	7	0	9	45	5	10	0	0%	1.3	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	6.00	4.98	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	7	0	9	45	5	10	0	0%	1.3	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	6.00	4.98	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	7	0	9	45	5	10	0	0%	1.3	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	6.00	5.32	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	6	2	17	79	17	7	0	33%	2.8	14.6%	11.1%	3.6%	0.0%	4.76	3.27	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	6	2	17	79	17	7	0	33%	2.8	14.6%	11.1%	3.6%	0.0%	4.76	3.27	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	6	2	17	79	17	7	0	33%	2.8	21.5%	8.9%	12.7%	0.0%	4.76	2.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	8	45	206	43	35	5	36%	2.1	14.7%	20.8%	-6.1%	3.2%	5.56	6.25	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	8	45	206	43	35	5	36%	2.1	14.7%	20.8%	-6.1%	3.2%	5.56	6.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	MIA	15	3	29	127	26	22	1	20%	1.9	20.5%	17.3%	3.1%	0.8%	5.59	4.00	—
2026	19	A RAW	MIA	7	5	16	79	17	13	4	71%	2.3	21.5%	16.5%	5.1%	5.1%	5.51	6.15	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIA	44	0	47	197	43	19	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.9%	4.50	4.45	+0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIA	47	0	49	206	46	19	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.32	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIA	49	0	51	217	51	19	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	8.7%	14.6%	2.8%	4.23	4.14	+0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIA	51	0	53	225	54	19	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	2.7%	4.10	4.01	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	54	230	57	19	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.2%	16.5%	2.7%	3.99	3.92	+0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIA	53	0	55	233	58	19	6	0%	1.0	25.0%	8.1%	17.0%	2.7%	3.92	3.87	+0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIA	53	0	55	233	59	19	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.0%	17.2%	2.7%	3.87	3.84	+0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	54	230	58	19	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.1%	17.1%	2.7%	3.88	3.88	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIA	22	0	23	97	21	9	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.42	4.37	+0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIA	34	0	36	152	34	14	4	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	2.7%	4.30	4.24	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIA	41	0	43	182	42	16	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	8.7%	14.6%	2.6%	4.15	4.06	+0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIA	46	0	48	203	49	17	5	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	2.6%	4.02	3.93	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIA	48	0	50	211	52	17	5	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.2%	16.5%	2.6%	3.92	3.85	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	55	18	6	0%	1.0	25.0%	8.1%	17.0%	2.6%	3.85	3.80	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	55	18	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.0%	17.2%	2.6%	3.80	3.77	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	55	18	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.1%	17.1%	2.6%	3.80	3.80	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		339	0	356	1501	364	127	39	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	2.6%	3.99	3.55	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	71	22	0%	1.1	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	2.6%	3.99	3.55	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		35	10	71	330	47	62	7	29%	2.0	14.2%	18.7%	-4.5%	2.0%	5.43	5.36	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	28	200	925	131	173	19	29%	2.0	14.2%	18.7%	-4.5%	2.0%	5.43	5.36	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.3%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.30	22.6%	13.3%	147	-0.31	—	—	—
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	85
Leury Tejada R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	18	SW	4.03	16.5%	10.1%	1.9%	.286	5.06	17.4%	6.2%	39	+1.03	4.03	183	83
Ricardo Brizuela R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SW	4.03	20.1%	11.6%	2.1%	.375	4.39	16.0%	7.1%	208	+0.36	3.20	246	82
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	82
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.32	274	81
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	79
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	79
Michael Dominguez R 2019 · 3.82 FIP	18	SW	3.82	20.8%	13.2%	1.5%	.218	4.69	21.1%	10.6%	110	+0.87	3.82	383	79
Layonel Ovalles R 2022 · 3.57 FIP	19	SW	3.57	23.1%	10.2%	2.1%	.333	4.62	17.4%	3.0%	146	+1.05	2.60	227	79
Denis Reguillo R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	19	SW	5.27	17.6%	11.6%	4.0%	.358	5.19	10.7%	-8.3%	52	-0.08	3.78	109	79
Carlos Espinosa R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	20	SW	3.73	17.0%	11.2%	1.2%	.260	4.52	22.0%	9.8%	177	+0.79	3.73	274	78
Osiris German R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.15	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.11	3.11	187	78
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	78
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	78
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	78
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	78
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	77
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	77
Raimon Gomez R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SW	4.90	17.3%	13.6%	2.8%	.265	3.28	19.5%	8.0%	48	-1.62	3.28	103	77
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	48	24.0%	8.6%	1.07	4.11
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68