Aidan Deakins

P Hickory Crawdads

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	16	10	57	4.26	3.05	27.0%	7.0%	—	K 18.9% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.07
2026	22	MIX2 levels	17	16	79	2.85	3.99	25.5%	9.5%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 5.22
2027PROJ	23	MLBTEX	9	9	49	4.83	4.83	20.2%	10.4%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTEX	6	6	31	4.82	4.77	21.1%	9.8%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTEX	8	8	49	4.71	4.66	21.7%	9.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsAntonio Bastardo (age 23) · Christian MacLeod (age 23) · Brad Halsey (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.2%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	10	57	244	66	17	6	62%	3.6	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	2.7%	4.26	4.07	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	10	57	244	66	17	6	62%	3.6	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	2.7%	4.26	4.07	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	10	57	244	66	17	6	62%	3.6	27.0%	7.0%	20.1%	2.5%	4.26	3.05	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	79	325	83	31	11	94%	4.6	19.3%	11.4%	7.9%	4.2%	2.85	5.22	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	79	325	83	31	11	94%	4.6	19.3%	11.4%	7.9%	4.2%	2.85	5.22	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	79	325	83	31	11	94%	4.6	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	3.4%	2.85	3.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TEX	9	9	49	207	42	22	7	100%	5.4	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	3.2%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	73	308	65	30	10	100%	5.6	21.1%	9.8%	11.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.64	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	74	312	68	29	10	100%	5.7	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.58	4.53	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	74	312	68	29	10	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.3%	12.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.50	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	73	307	67	29	10	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	70	298	65	28	10	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.2%	4.58	4.61	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	67	284	61	28	10	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	3.4%	4.68	4.74	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	63	267	57	27	10	100%	5.8	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.6%	4.83	4.92	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	31	131	28	13	4	100%	5.2	21.1%	9.8%	11.4%	3.3%	4.82	4.77	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	49	207	45	19	7	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.66	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	58	245	54	23	8	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.3%	12.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.63	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	62	262	58	25	9	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.66	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	63	266	58	25	9	100%	6.3	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.5%	4.71	4.74	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	61	258	56	25	9	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	3.6%	4.82	4.88	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	58	245	52	25	9	100%	5.8	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.8%	4.98	5.07	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	383	1616	351	155	56	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.76	4.39	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	81	29	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.76	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		33	26	136	569	109	58	20	79%	4.1	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	3.6%	3.44	4.72	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	38	200	837	160	85	30	79%	4.1	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	3.6%	3.44	4.72	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Deakins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.2%	10.4%	3.2%	—	4.56	21.6%	12.1%	220	-0.27	—	—	—
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	86
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	85
Brad Halsey L 2004 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	16.3%	9.2%	2.6%	.336	4.43	11.9%	5.4%	254	+0.12	4.31	286	85
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	84
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	84
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	83
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	83
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	83
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	82
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	82
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	82
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	82
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	81
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	81
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	81
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	81
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	80
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	80
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	80
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	68	21.5%	9.7%	1.24	4.65
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Wes Stock ('59-'67, 2 WAR*)	2.6	74	22.3%*	9.6%*	1.29*	4.22*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*