Joel Lara

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	15	2	28	3.49	1.62	26.6%	6.5%	—	K 18.1% · BB 8.1% · FIP 2.59
2025	18	MIX2 levels	17	1	34	3.71	4.31	25.6%	20.1%	—	K 18.0% · BB 24.6% · FIP 5.70
2026	19	ANYM	21	13	70	5.43	3.88	25.1%	16.9%	—	K 18.6% · BB 20.0% · FIP 4.96
2027PROJ	20	MLBNYM	36	0	38	5.76	5.76	19.7%	19.2%	-0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBNYM	30	0	32	5.42	5.29	20.6%	16.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBNYM	48	0	50	5.07	4.89	21.8%	14.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 85%

CompsReynardo Cruz (age 20) · Luis Rujano (age 20) · Radhames Liz (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 126

ERA5.76

FIP5.76

K%19.7%

BB%19.2%

K-BB%0.5%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	15	2	28	124	33	8	0	13%	1.9	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	0.0%	3.49	2.59	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	15	2	28	124	33	8	0	13%	1.9	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	0.0%	3.49	2.59	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	15	2	28	124	33	8	0	13%	1.9	26.6%	6.5%	20.2%	0.0%	3.49	1.62	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	34	164	42	33	2	6%	2.0	18.0%	24.6%	-6.5%	1.8%	3.71	5.70	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	34	164	42	33	2	6%	2.0	18.0%	24.6%	-6.5%	1.8%	3.71	5.70	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	1	34	164	42	33	2	6%	2.0	25.6%	20.1%	5.5%	1.2%	3.71	4.31	—
2026	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	21	13	70	319	80	54	4	62%	3.3	18.6%	20.0%	-1.4%	1.6%	5.43	4.96	—
2026	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	21	13	70	319	80	54	4	62%	3.3	18.6%	20.0%	-1.4%	1.6%	5.43	4.96	—
2026	19	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	21	13	70	319	80	54	4	62%	3.3	25.1%	16.9%	8.2%	1.3%	5.43	3.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	NYM	36	0	38	160	32	31	4	0%	1.1	19.7%	19.2%	0.5%	2.8%	5.76	5.76	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYM	63	0	66	278	57	45	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	16.2%	4.4%	2.7%	5.42	5.29	-0.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYM	66	0	69	292	63	41	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.0%	7.7%	2.7%	5.07	4.89	-0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYM	68	0	72	303	68	38	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.5%	10.1%	2.6%	4.78	4.61	-0.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYM	70	0	74	310	72	36	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.5%	11.6%	2.6%	4.56	4.42	+0.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYM	71	0	74	314	74	34	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	2.6%	4.40	4.30	+0.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYM	71	0	74	314	74	34	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	2.6%	4.33	4.28	+0.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYM	70	0	73	309	73	34	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.9%	12.8%	2.7%	4.32	4.32	+0.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYM	68	0	71	300	71	33	8	0%	1.0	23.6%	11.0%	12.6%	2.8%	4.37	4.40	+0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYM	65	0	68	287	67	32	8	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.47	4.53	+0.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYM	61	0	64	269	62	31	8	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.71	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	32	135	28	22	4	0%	1.1	20.6%	16.2%	4.4%	2.7%	5.42	5.29	-0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYM	48	0	50	211	46	30	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.0%	7.7%	2.7%	5.07	4.89	-0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYM	57	0	60	253	57	32	7	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.5%	10.1%	2.6%	4.78	4.61	-0.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYM	63	0	66	279	64	32	7	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.5%	11.6%	2.6%	4.56	4.42	+0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYM	65	0	68	287	67	31	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	2.6%	4.40	4.30	+0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYM	66	0	69	291	69	31	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	2.6%	4.33	4.28	+0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYM	67	0	70	296	70	32	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.9%	12.8%	2.7%	4.32	4.32	+0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYM	65	0	68	287	68	32	8	0%	1.0	23.6%	11.0%	12.6%	2.8%	4.37	4.40	+0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYM	62	0	65	274	64	31	8	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.47	4.53	+0.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYM	58	0	61	258	59	30	8	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		580	0	609	2570	592	302	70	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.7%	11.3%	2.7%	4.57	4.14	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	99	23	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.7%	11.3%	2.7%	4.57	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		53	16	132	607	111	114	8	30%	2.5	18.3%	18.8%	-0.5%	1.4%	4.57	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	24	200	920	169	173	12	30%	2.5	18.3%	18.8%	-0.5%	1.4%	4.57	4.68	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.76	19.7%	19.2%	2.8%	—	4.92	21.7%	7.5%	207	-0.84	—	—	—
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	87
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	87
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	84
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	83
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SW	5.28	17.7%	15.0%	3.2%	.300	5.89	16.6%	1.2%	33	+0.61	3.34	129	83
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	83
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	83
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	83
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	83
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	82
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	82
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	82
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	82
Aneuris Rodriguez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	20	SW	5.22	16.0%	18.8%	2.0%	.310	6.65	14.6%	-15.5%	14	+1.43	3.15	118	82
Ignacio Feliz R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SW	4.80	18.8%	16.4%	2.2%	.256	4.37	25.1%	10.0%	166	-0.43	2.62	328	81
Dominic Hambley R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	20	SW	5.81	16.4%	20.4%	2.8%	.318	4.66	17.9%	-4.3%	73	-1.15	4.44	131	81
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	81
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	81
Yeiber Cartaya R 2023 · 5.38 FIP	20	SW	5.38	16.4%	21.2%	1.8%	.307	4.38	20.4%	3.8%	235	-1.00	4.12	283	81
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	68	22.7%	12.4%	1.06	4.68
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
Ricky Bottalico ('05)	3.1	63	21.1%	11.6%	1.02	3.99
Ed Farmer ('71-'83, -2 WAR*)	3.1	69	21.3%*	12.2%*	1.03*	4.71*
Miguel Castro ('25)	2.3	67	20.4%	11.7%	1.14	4.24
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*