Edwyn Hernandez — OGILVIE

Edwyn Hernandez P DSL Padres Gold

Age 20 LHP 6'0" / 180 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 18 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 135

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%20.2%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	11	0	14	68	10	6	1	0%	1.2	10.0%	11.0%	-1.0%	2.3%	7.90	4.90	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	11	0	14	68	10	6	1	0%	1.2	10.0%	11.0%	-1.0%	2.3%	7.90	4.90	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	11	0	14	68	10	6	1	0%	1.2	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	1.5%	7.90	3.90	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	18	0	36	159	27	25	1	0%	2.0	11.5%	19.7%	-8.1%	0.9%	2.75	5.12	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	18	0	36	159	27	25	1	0%	2.0	11.5%	19.7%	-8.1%	0.9%	2.75	5.12	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	18	0	36	159	27	25	1	0%	2.0	17.0%	15.7%	1.3%	0.6%	2.75	4.04	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	8	0	8	40	11	4	1	0%	1.0	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	2.5%	4.32	3.42	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	8	0	8	40	11	4	1	0%	1.0	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	2.5%	4.32	3.42	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	8	0	8	40	11	4	1	0%	1.0	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	2.5%	4.32	3.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SD	17	0	18	76	15	12	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	15.3%	4.8%	3.0%	5.34	5.34	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	32	0	34	144	30	19	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.4%	7.6%	2.9%	5.09	5.00	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	16	0	17	72	15	10	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.4%	7.6%	2.9%	5.09	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	71	15	9	2	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.4%	7.6%	2.9%	5.09	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	108	24	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.4%	7.6%	2.9%	5.09	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		37	0	58	267	36	43	4	0%	1.6	13.5%	16.0%	-2.5%	1.5%	4.19	4.81	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	0	200	921	125	147	14	0%	1.6	13.5%	16.0%	-2.5%	1.5%	4.19	4.81	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwyn Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	20.2%	15.3%	3.0%	—	5.00	21.0%	7.6%	34	-0.34	—	—	—
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	85
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	84
Boone Logan L 2006 · 4.69 FIP	21	SU	4.69	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	.302	4.14	17.2%	10.5%	110	-0.55	2.58	442	83
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	83
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	82
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	82
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	81
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	81
Peter Bonilla L 2024 · 4.63 FIP	19	SU	4.63	20.9%	18.3%	1.8%	.250	6.24	19.5%	-5.4%	51	+1.61	4.27	134	81
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	81
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	80
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	80
Deyer Zapata L 2024 · 5.79 FIP	20	SU	5.79	18.0%	15.3%	4.1%	.319	3.77	16.2%	7.0%	15	-2.02	3.77	130	80
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	79
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	79
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	79
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	79
Tim Collins L 2011 · 4.36 FIP	21	SU	4.36	20.3%	15.6%	1.8%	.255	3.47	25.9%	15.6%	144	-0.89	3.16	297	78
Rio Britton L 2024 · 4.28 FIP	21	SU	4.28	19.2%	13.5%	2.0%	.354	5.03	22.4%	7.1%	98	+0.75	4.28	166	78
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.7%	14.1%	1.13	5.18
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82