Ian Medina — OGILVIE

Ian Medina P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 22 LHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 128

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%21.9%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	12	1	28	124	34	18	1	8%	2.4	18.6%	18.1%	0.5%	0.6%	2.54	4.16	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	12	1	28	124	34	18	1	8%	2.4	18.6%	18.1%	0.5%	0.6%	2.54	4.16	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	12	1	28	124	34	18	1	8%	2.4	27.4%	14.5%	12.9%	0.8%	2.54	3.06	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	16	0	31	122	37	13	2	0%	1.9	20.6%	13.3%	7.3%	1.6%	3.19	3.93	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	16	0	31	122	37	13	2	0%	1.9	20.6%	13.3%	7.3%	1.6%	3.19	3.93	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	16	0	31	122	37	13	2	0%	1.9	30.3%	10.7%	19.7%	1.6%	3.19	2.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	31	0	45	206	40	33	5	0%	1.5	14.3%	20.2%	-5.9%	2.9%	6.15	6.03	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	31	0	45	206	40	33	5	0%	1.5	14.3%	20.2%	-5.9%	2.9%	6.15	6.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	MIA	6	0	7	25	5	2	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	4.0%	4.05	4.62	—
2026	22	A RAW	MIA	25	0	39	181	35	31	4	0%	1.5	19.3%	17.1%	2.2%	2.2%	6.52	4.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	44	0	46	195	44	24	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.1%	10.7%	2.9%	4.76	4.67	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	45	0	47	200	47	22	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.47	+0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	46	0	48	202	48	21	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	2.8%	4.44	4.35	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	46	0	48	202	48	21	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	45	0	47	199	48	21	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	22	0	23	97	22	12	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.1%	10.7%	2.9%	4.76	4.67	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	31	0	33	139	33	15	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.47	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	37	0	39	165	39	17	5	0%	1.1	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	2.8%	4.44	4.35	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	40	0	42	177	42	18	5	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	41	0	43	182	43	19	5	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	0	179	756	179	81	22	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.48	4.04	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	90	25	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.48	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		59	1	105	452	78	80	9	2%	1.8	17.2%	17.8%	-0.6%	1.9%	4.30	4.95	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	2	200	864	149	154	17	2%	1.8	17.2%	17.8%	-0.6%	1.9%	4.30	4.95	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	21.9%	13.8%	2.9%	—	4.49	23.3%	12.1%	141	-0.48	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	89
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	87
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	87
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	87
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	85
Ignacio Briceno L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.270	3.28	14.7%	3.5%	76	-1.26	2.39	156	83
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	82
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	82
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	81
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	81
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	81
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	81
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	80
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.01	223	80
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	80
Manuel Medina L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	22.3%	11.2%	4.5%	.319	2.79	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.30	1.26	157	80
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.2%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	79
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	79
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	42	23.5%	11.1%	1.11	4.54
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81