Riley Nelson — OGILVIE

Riley Nelson1B Hill City Howlers

Age 22 L/R 6'3" / 222 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION252 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP264

ISO101

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE64

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	57	18	6	0	1	3	12	3	1	0	316	369	474	843	158	386	18	5	370	136	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	60	15	5	0	1	2	17	3	1	0	250	308	383	691	133	340	26	3	297	87	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	60	15	5	0	1	2	17	3	1	0	250	308	383	691	133	333	26	3	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	57	18	6	0	1	3	12	3	1	0	316	369	474	843	158	386	18	5	370	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	60	15	5	0	1	2	17	3	1	0	250	308	383	691	133	340	26	3	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	60	15	5	0	1	2	17	3	1	0	250	308	383	691	133	340	26	3	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A MLE	CLE	—	252	216	34	5	1	1	32	75	3	4	1	157	275	204	479	46	234	30	13	227	40	-18	+0	+0	-4	+5	-1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A RAW	CLE	—	187	142	30	4	1	1	39	36	3	4	1	211	387	275	662	63	274	19	21	321	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ RAW	CLE	—	65	53	7	2	0	0	12	18	0	0	0	132	292	170	462	38	200	28	18	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A MLE	CLE	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		265	22	11	262	63	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A MLE	CLE	—	261	224	35	5	1	1	33	77	3	4	1	156	273	201	474	45	231	30	13	228	41	-18	+0	+0	-5	+6	-1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	34%	261	229	46	8	1	4	27	70	3	4	1	201	293	297	590	96	269	27	10	272	70	-9	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.8
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	34%	90	80	15	3	0	1	9	24	1	1	0	188	278	263	540	75	268	27	10	262	70	-3	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	90	80	15	3	0	1	9	24	1	1	0	188	278	263	540	75	255	27	10	262	73	-3	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	108	22	0	7	65	173	7	7	0	187	277	261	538	74	254	27	10	262	73	-23	+1	+0	-12	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	335	297	62	13	1	5	30	89	6	5	1	209	294	310	604	101	279	27	9	277	73	-10	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	120	25	2	10	58	173	12	10	2	208	294	311	605	102	278	27	9	277	73	-23	+1	+0	-12	+14	-2.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	210	3	4	209	291	308	-4	-2	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	9	11	-11.9	-4.8	-1.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Riley Nelson (OGILVIE)	22	36→41	31→36	46→51	64	191/285/273	82	265	1	2	28%	10%	63	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕JT Schwartz 2022 · A	22	43→46	38→45	51→45	49	204/278/288	84	254	5	9	21%	8%	63	-1.4	225/287/327	102	289	8	6	23%	7%	74	-0.5	228/293/333	105	286	9	6	22%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Javi Vaz 2023 · A	22	46→50	40	47→55	51	219/289/316	97	268	7	10	20%	8%	73	-0.6	227/300/321	94	256	7	18	14%	9%	78	-0.3	225/301/310	85	251	6	20	13%	9%	73	-0.5
✕Jake Thomas 2016 · A	23	44	39→30	49→50	47	210/289/293	83	281	7	8	26%	8%	68	-1.0	206/288/273	67	306	2	8	30%	10%	63	-1.3	200/292/257	57	304	1	8	30%	11%	59	-0.8
✕Nelson B Alvarez 2018 · A	22	40	37→40	46→40	49	188/272/256	68	260	4	5	27%	9%	53	-2.1	179/261/246	67	253	4	6	28%	9%	47	-2.5	73/187/105	32	93	4	2	26%	12%	-10	-1.2
✕Mike Papi 2015 · A	22	38→47	41→45	50→45	49	188/265/282	94	249	9	7	27%	9%	57	-1.8	199/278/306	107	280	9	5	30%	9%	67	-1.1	208/291/327	119	275	12	4	27%	10%	76	-0.3
✕Ryan Aguilar 2017 · A	22	43→41	38→45	50	47	205/275/287	82	285	5	10	28%	9%	61	-1.5	183/251/260	77	287	6	7	35%	8%	46	-2.6	185/281/292	107	300	12	12	39%	10%	63	-0.9
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	197/268/264	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	53	-2.1	210/306/281	71	297	4	26	28%	9%	73	-0.6	226/338/275	49	304	3	35	23%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Conner Capel 2019 · A	22	42→45	44→45	47→55	43	209/267/331	122	277	11	11	28%	7%	68	-1.0	212/262/326	114	280	12	10	27%	6%	65	-1.2	213/285/332	119	269	12	19	24%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Brendon Sanger 2016 · A	22	45→42	40→45	50→45	52	216/295/317	100	272	7	11	22%	9%	76	-0.4	203/272/300	97	275	8	5	27%	8%	63	-1.3	186/261/298	112	262	14	4	33%	8%	57	-1.1
✕Cody Keefer 2013 · A	22	46	40→45	51→30	46	218/285/315	96	303	7	7	29%	8%	71	-0.8	219/268/305	86	287	5	3	24%	6%	61	-1.5	222/268/306	85	284	5	1	23%	5%	60	-1.0
✕Kai Murphy 2023 · A	22	45→40	39→40	53→50	44	214/273/301	87	294	6	12	28%	7%	63	-1.3	209/272/296	87	305	7	10	31%	7%	62	-1.4	198/270/265	67	268	5	11	26%	8%	52	-1.3
✕Antonio DeJesus 2008 · A	22	49	38→30	48→50	47	229/301/305	76	307	6	14	26%	8%	75	-0.5	226/315/295	69	302	3	11	24%	9%	79	-0.2	217/315/285	68	291	2	11	23%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Grant Lavigne 2022 · A	22	43→47	40→45	46→45	43	202/281/292	89	311	7	7	34%	8%	65	-1.2	207/285/319	112	308	11	5	33%	9%	73	-0.6	196/279/312	116	287	12	5	33%	9%	67	-0.9
✕Michael Swinson 2012 · A	22	44	38→40	46→50	50	210/278/291	82	266	5	9	22%	8%	63	-1.4	197/256/269	72	274	4	11	27%	7%	49	-2.4	165/228/222	57	263	0	17	34%	7%	26	-1.1
✕Preston Beck 2014 · A	23	43→44	38→45	49→45	48	207/275/290	82	264	5	10	23%	8%	61	-1.5	213/279/322	109	270	9	8	23%	8%	71	-0.8	213/277/329	116	265	9	7	22%	7%	69	-0.7
✕River Town 2022 · A	23	43→38	37→40	54→50	43	203/281/276	74	285	3	12	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/295/314	104	266	10	15	23%	8%	76	-0.4	205/297/303	98	254	9	15	22%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	43	40	51→50	49	206/287/303	97	281	7	18	28%	9%	70	-0.9	201/263/300	99	311	9	11	36%	7%	60	-1.6	148/212/219	71	239	8	8	39%	6%	19	-1.1
✕Whitney Robbins 2008 · A	23	44→51	37→40	51→30	52	208/296/283	74	272	4	6	23%	10%	69	-0.9	226/296/323	97	283	8	3	21%	8%	77	-0.3	236/302/342	106	290	9	0	21%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Johny Celis 2009 · A	22	45	42→45	41→40	51	218/299/326	108	276	9	5	23%	9%	80	-0.2	216/286/326	110	290	10	4	27%	8%	74	-0.5	205/280/321	117	266	13	0	27%	9%	71	-0.3
✕Exicardo Cayones 2014 · A	22	46	38→40	51→45	42	213/286/293	80	322	4	12	33%	7%	67	-1.1	219/297/301	82	323	4	9	30%	9%	73	-0.6	228/304/306	78	333	3	7	29%	9%	74	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps