Riley Nelson — OGILVIE

Riley Nelson1B Hill City Howlers

Age 22 L/R 6'3" / 222 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 70 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .269 / .267

PA70

HR1

K%30

BB%8

BABIP264

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	60	16	6	0	1	2	17	3	1	0	267	323	417	740	150	357	26	3	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	57	18	6	0	1	3	12	3	1	0	316	369	474	843	158	386	18	5	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A	CLE	—	106	90	13	1	0	1	13	36	2	2	1	144	267	189	456	44	222	34	12	213	21	-9	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.8
YTD	22	A	CLE	—	106	82	14	1	0	1	20	25	2	2	1	171	343	220	562	49	228	24	19	280	72	-3	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.2
ROS	22	A	CLE	0%	70	63	12	2	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	188	269	267	536	79	278	30	8	264	61	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
ROS	22	MLB	CLE	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		278	—	—	254	52	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	22	A	CLE	—	106	91	13	1	0	1	13	36	2	2	1	143	267	187	453	44	218	34	12	213	21	-9	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.8
TOT	22	A	CLE	—	176	153	25	3	0	2	19	57	3	3	1	163	268	221	489	59	240	32	11	234	37	-13	+0	+0	-3	+5	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CLE	34%	220	196	40	7	1	4	19	65	3	3	1	204	284	311	596	107	280	30	9	273	67	-8	+0	+0	-4	+6	-0.6
2027	23	MLB	CLE	34%	76	68	13	2	0	1	7	22	1	1	0	191	276	265	541	74	281	29	9	263	59	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	76	69	13	2	0	1	7	22	1	1	0	188	276	261	537	72	261	29	9	263	59	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	112	17	0	9	60	188	9	9	0	190	278	264	543	75	262	29	9	263	59	-30	+2	+0	-12	+18	-2.2
Career	—			—	355	319	68	15	1	6	27	103	7	5	1	213	288	322	611	109	293	29	8	275	69	-12	+1	+0	-6	+10	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	124	27	2	11	49	188	13	9	2	212	288	322	610	110	292	29	8	275	69	-23	+1	+0	-12	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	57	18	6	0	1	3	12	3	1	0	316	369	474	843	158	386	18	5	370	141	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Riley Nelson (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	163/268/221	59	240	2	3	32%	11%	37	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dillon Paulson 2019 · A	22	41→37	47→50	50→30	48	207/281/353	146	266	14	4	27%	9%	76	+0.1	206/284/338	132	300	13	4	33%	10%	74	-0.1	196/280/329	133	277	13	2	32%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Greyson Jenista 2019 · A	22	47→33	42→50	50→45	44	227/276/332	105	293	8	7	25%	6%	67	-0.5	198/262/332	134	308	16	6	38%	8%	63	-0.9	172/237/326	153	266	22	5	43%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Cole Roederer 2022 · A	22	41→31	40→45	50	44	197/272/291	94	298	8	13	34%	8%	56	-1.3	201/266/318	117	303	13	11	35%	7%	61	-1.0	180/254/293	113	270	13	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Brian Pointer 2014 · A	22	38→43	43→45	51→50	39	190/263/305	115	288	11	13	36%	7%	57	-1.2	212/286/344	132	314	13	12	34%	8%	76	+0.1	211/289/350	139	310	15	12	34%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Rixon Wingrove 2022 · A	22	35	44→55	47→40	36	180/242/297	117	280	12	4	39%	6%	46	-2.0	192/259/343	151	301	19	4	41%	7%	66	-0.6	184/257/346	162	273	22	3	39%	7%	61	-0.5
✕David Washington 2013 · A	22	40→38	45→55	49→45	38	198/256/320	122	307	12	6	38%	7%	56	-1.3	205/267/357	152	324	17	5	39%	7%	72	-0.2	200/261/369	169	326	23	5	44%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Lance Ray 2012 · A	22	42→37	42→45	44→45	43	206/268/312	105	282	9	7	29%	7%	59	-1.1	191/259/310	119	262	12	6	30%	8%	56	-1.3	160/240/280	119	209	14	5	30%	9%	39	-1.2
✕Gage Canning 2019 · A	22	42→36	44→40	50	37	206/259/329	123	314	11	8	37%	6%	60	-1.0	195/245/283	88	323	7	9	39%	5%	42	-2.3	191/241/271	80	315	6	8	39%	5%	33	-1.9
✕Brandon Dulin 2015 · A	22	36→30	42→45	51→40	35	184/234/285	101	260	9	7	32%	4%	38	-2.6	197/245/314	117	277	13	4	33%	5%	50	-1.7	189/240/316	127	261	17	1	34%	5%	46	-1.1
✕William Beckwith 2013 · A	22	41→39	48→50	47→50	38	211/268/348	137	291	16	11	32%	6%	70	-0.3	216/284/363	147	309	18	11	34%	7%	81	+0.4	192/284/367	175	258	25	10	35%	9%	82	+0.2
✕Caleb Roberts 2022 · A	22	43→42	39→45	50	42	199/277/290	90	314	7	9	36%	8%	58	-1.2	204/283/328	124	302	11	12	34%	9%	71	-0.3	200/281/332	132	290	12	12	33%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Trae Santos 2016 · A	23	40→36	45→50	46→40	43	200/270/330	130	273	12	4	30%	8%	66	-0.6	188/252/314	126	278	12	4	35%	6%	54	-1.4	151/217/277	126	225	13	0	38%	6%	27	-2.3
✕Conner Capel 2019 · A	22	43→46	45→50	47→55	44	215/272/342	127	282	11	11	28%	7%	69	-0.4	213/263/334	121	282	13	10	28%	6%	63	-0.8	213/283/334	121	267	13	19	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Mitchell Hansen 2018 · A	22	40→37	44→45	51→50	38	201/248/315	115	282	11	10	32%	6%	52	-1.6	195/242/297	102	293	8	9	34%	5%	44	-2.1	159/200/249	89	247	6	8	37%	4%	11	-1.9
✕Logan Wyatt 2021 · A	23	47→37	40→50	47→40	46	224/293/315	91	307	7	7	28%	8%	71	-0.3	206/298/287	81	279	7	4	26%	11%	66	-0.6	193/284/288	95	255	11	1	27%	11%	59	-0.5
✕Alexis Rivera 2016 · A	22	41	43→45	49→50	40	204/260/316	111	281	11	10	31%	6%	57	-1.2	225/266/327	102	309	9	8	29%	5%	62	-0.9	239/266/322	83	324	6	6	27%	3%	57	-0.6
✕Johnny Woodard 2007 · A	22	39→36	44→45	48→30	37	193/253/302	109	299	12	4	38%	6%	51	-1.7	199/279/326	127	308	14	3	37%	8%	69	-0.4	186/274/315	130	283	14	1	37%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Andry Arias 2022 · A	22	38	42→40	44→40	39	189/254/293	104	286	10	7	36%	7%	50	-1.8	194/259/289	95	310	7	6	37%	7%	50	-1.8	160/232/251	91	264	6	3	39%	8%	26	-1.1
✕Josh Lester 2016 · A	22	46→41	42→60	49→40	43	222/279/336	115	296	9	7	27%	6%	70	-0.3	204/245/317	113	284	11	4	31%	5%	51	-1.7	201/249/391	190	248	25	4	31%	5%	70	-0.3
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	39	187/256/305	118	276	12	9	35%	7%	54	-1.4	197/279/292	95	352	7	8	42%	9%	60	-1.0	146/272/221	75	359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5