Riley Nelson

1B Hill City Howlers

Age 23 L/R 6'3" / 222 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	65	.316/.369/.474	1	1	86	—	.250/.308/.383
2026	22	A+/ACLE	252	.190/.363/.246	1	4	42	—	.160/.287/.207
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCLE	362	.206/.301/.297	4	6	73	-0.3
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBCLE	54	.210/.304/.307	1	1	77	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%91

Chase%85

Whiff%67

Z-Con%35

K%32

wOBA6

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJake Thomas (age 23) · Whitney Robbins (age 23) · Clark Elliott (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 148 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .298 / .294

PA148

HR2

K%27

BB%11

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE66

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	57	18	6	0	1	3	12	3	1	0	316	369	474	843	158	386	18	5	370	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	65	53	7	2	0	0	12	18	0	0	0	132	292	170	462	38	200	28	18	238	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Hill City Howlers	—	187	142	30	4	1	1	39	36	3	4	1	211	387	275	662	63	274	19	21	321	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	60	15	5	0	1	2	17	3	1	0	250	308	383	691	133	335	26	3	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	65	57	7	2	0	0	8	23	0	0	0	123	231	158	389	35	177	35	12	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	187	156	27	3	1	1	27	49	3	4	1	173	306	224	531	51	239	26	14	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	60	15	5	0	1	2	17	3	1	0	250	308	383	691	133	333	26	3	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	57	18	6	0	1	3	12	3	1	0	316	369	474	843	158	386	18	5	370	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	252	214	33	5	1	1	34	72	3	4	1	154	279	201	480	47	225	29	13	231	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	252	195	37	6	1	1	51	54	3	4	1	190	363	246	609	56	255	21	20	299	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	60	15	5	0	1	2	17	3	1	0	250	308	383	691	133	335	26	3	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	252	213	33	5	1	1	34	72	3	4	1	155	279	202	481	47	223	29	13	231	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	65	60	15	5	0	1	2	17	3	1	0	250	308	383	691	133	335	26	3	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	252	213	33	5	1	1	34	72	3	4	1	155	279	202	481	47	223	29	13	231	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	362	316	66	13	2	4	39	97	4	6	2	206	301	297	598	90	281	27	11	276	73	-12	+0	+0	-6	+8	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	30%	179	156	32	6	1	2	19	47	2	3	1	210	304	308	612	98	283	26	11	282	77	-5	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	30%	54	47	10	2	0	1	6	14	1	1	0	210	304	307	611	97	283	26	11	281	77	-1	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	54	47	10	2	0	1	6	14	1	1	0	213	315	319	634	106	281	26	11	281	63	-1	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	566	120	24	0	12	72	169	12	12	0	212	314	318	632	106	281	26	11	281	63	-18	+2	+0	-12	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	644	559	107	21	3	6	71	176	10	11	3	191	294	272	566	81	266	27	11	262	63	-10	+0	+0	-6	+7	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	108	21	3	6	72	178	10	11	3	191	294	271	565	80	266	27	11	262	63	-19	+1	+0	-12	+14	-1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHill City Howlers · 187 PAwOBA .316 → .250 (−66)K% 19.3% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.25%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	26.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.86%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	14.25%
HBP% /PA	1.60%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.24%
Singles /BIP	22.64%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.973	×0.990	20.06%
Doubles /BIP	3.77%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.973	×0.990	3.02%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.973	×0.990	0.83%
Home runs /BIP	0.94%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	0.75%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .316 → .250; ISO .063 → .053; BABIP .274 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 65 PAwOBA .226 → .177 (−49)K% 27.7% → 35.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.69%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	35.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.92%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	11.99%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.998	13.12%
Doubles /BIP	5.71%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.998	4.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .226 → .177; ISO .038 → .030; BABIP .200 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 65 PAwOBA .360 → .295 (−64)K% 18.5% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.46%	÷0.989	×1.360	—	—	25.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.62%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	—	3.27%
HBP% /PA	4.62%	—	×0.780	—	—	3.60%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷1.071	×0.920	—	—	20.99%
Doubles /BIP	13.33%	÷0.921	×0.830	—	—	12.01%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.020	×0.910	—	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.22%	÷1.184	×0.800	—	—	1.50%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .360 → .295; ISO .158 → .128; BABIP .386 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Connor Joelast yr '25 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	35	13	241	335	387	-21	-16	1.9	1.9
/162	664	14	5	-8.3	-6.6	0.7	pk7: 2
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#6Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	202	2	4	208	299	301	-4	-2	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	8	12	-11.9	-4.9	-1.3	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Riley Nelson (OGILVIE)	23	39→44	31→36	46→51	66	205/298/294	89	281	2	3	27%	11%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jake Thomas 2016 · A	23	43	39→30	49→50	47	207/286/290	82	278	7	8	26%	8%	66	-1.1	204/286/270	66	302	2	8	30%	10%	61	-1.5	198/289/254	57	300	1	8	30%	11%	57	-0.9
✕Whitney Robbins 2008 · A	23	44→52	37→40	51→30	52	208/296/282	74	272	4	6	23%	10%	69	-0.9	227/296/324	97	284	8	3	21%	8%	78	-0.3	238/304/343	105	293	9	0	21%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Clark Elliott 2024 · A	23	42→40	36→45	51→50	49	196/281/257	61	262	4	12	25%	9%	57	-1.8	207/307/309	102	286	9	13	28%	10%	80	-0.2	198/314/306	108	278	10	16	29%	12%	80	-0.1
✕Caden Connor 2024 · A	23	43→53	37→40	49→50	45	201/273/278	77	300	4	6	32%	9%	58	-1.7	237/296/330	93	301	7	8	22%	7%	78	-0.3	240/299/330	91	298	8	11	21%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Josh Alley 2007 · A	23	45	37→40	45→50	58	210/300/281	71	253	5	10	18%	11%	70	-0.9	233/315/319	86	287	5	10	19%	11%	83	+0.1	254/338/347	93	307	4	10	17%	11%	96	+0.5
✕JT Schwartz 2023 · A	23	43→47	40→45	45	44	208/266/302	94	270	7	5	25%	6%	61	-1.5	226/292/333	107	281	9	7	21%	7%	78	-0.3	223/296/332	109	270	9	6	20%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Brad McElroy 2009 · A	23	44→54	38→40	54→55	49	209/283/293	84	262	5	10	21%	8%	65	-1.2	221/290/317	96	293	6	18	25%	8%	74	-0.6	229/296/327	98	299	6	23	24%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	43	41→40	51→50	49	207/290/305	98	284	8	18	28%	10%	72	-0.7	201/264/300	99	312	9	11	36%	7%	60	-1.6	148/212/219	71	239	8	8	39%	6%	19	-1.1
✕Javi Vaz 2023 · A	22	46→50	40	47→55	52	219/293/316	97	267	6	10	20%	9%	75	-0.5	227/301/321	94	255	7	18	14%	9%	78	-0.3	224/300/308	85	249	7	20	12%	9%	73	-0.6
✕Logan Wyatt 2021 · A	23	47→38	40→45	47→40	46	223/293/316	92	306	7	7	28%	8%	74	-0.5	204/291/283	79	279	7	4	26%	11%	67	-1.1	193/281/282	89	257	10	1	27%	10%	61	-0.8
✕Travis Swaggerty 2021 · A	23	44→46	40→45	50→55	44	210/276/304	93	302	8	14	31%	8%	65	-1.2	215/281/328	113	304	9	18	30%	8%	73	-0.6	210/279/318	108	312	7	20	32%	8%	66	-0.5
✕Preston Beck 2014 · A	23	43→42	38→45	49→45	48	207/275/289	82	264	5	10	23%	8%	61	-1.5	210/276/319	109	266	9	8	23%	8%	69	-0.9	210/274/325	115	261	9	7	22%	7%	67	-0.9
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	40→45	51→55	44	213/278/313	100	287	7	13	27%	7%	68	-1.0	208/259/299	91	298	6	11	30%	6%	57	-1.8	170/204/219	49	257	0	15	32%	4%	17	-0.8
✕Jeisson Rosario 2023 · AA	23	46→52	42→45	47→50	49	222/302/332	110	299	9	12	27%	10%	82	+0.0	211/297/314	103	314	9	12	32%	11%	76	-0.4	196/290/285	88	304	8	12	34%	11%	65	-0.7
✕River Town 2022 · A	23	43→38	37→40	54→50	43	202/278/275	73	283	3	12	28%	7%	61	-1.5	209/294/310	101	262	9	15	22%	8%	75	-0.5	204/297/299	95	251	9	15	21%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Saige Jenco 2018 · A	23	47	39→40	54→50	46	219/288/318	98	303	5	15	28%	8%	73	-0.6	211/284/294	83	316	5	12	31%	9%	66	-1.1	191/279/230	39	304	0	13	33%	11%	47	-0.9
✕Spencer Nivens 2024 · A	22	41→49	41→45	48→50	52	199/280/294	96	255	8	14	24%	10%	65	-1.2	208/277/334	126	276	13	11	28%	9%	73	-0.6	211/281/333	122	272	12	12	26%	9%	73	-0.5
✕Justin Jacobs 2018 · A	22	49	38→40	46→50	48	229/301/308	79	307	5	9	25%	8%	75	-0.5	205/269/286	81	321	6	5	35%	7%	59	-1.7	177/241/247	70	291	6	1	39%	6%	37	-1.6
✕Dan Grovatt 2012 · A	23	47→48	40→45	50	47	226/284/319	93	285	6	12	22%	7%	72	-0.7	210/256/315	105	264	8	12	23%	5%	60	-1.6	196/231/306	110	246	8	14	23%	4%	46	-1.9
✕Jarrod Belbin 2024 · A	24	44	41→40	50	47	213/279/316	103	280	8	12	26%	8%	69	-0.9	215/281/309	94	298	7	10	28%	8%	68	-1.0	209/280/302	93	286	7	10	27%	8%	63	-0.5

Riley Nelson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps