Caden Connor
LF Charlotte Knights| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+/ACWS | 532 | .293/.379/.424 | 7 | 7 | 82 | — | .246/.310/.355 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 599 | .283/.381/.369 | 7 | 21 | 95 | — | .255/.317/.343 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AACWS | 445 | .256/.331/.365 | 7 | 15 | 67 | — | .232/.288/.318 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 26 | MLBCWS | 16 | .247/.304/.340 | 0 | 0 | 82 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 27 | MLBCWS | 70 | .246/.304/.341 | 1 | 2 | 82 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 28 | MLBCWS | 106 | .244/.302/.340 | 1 | 2 | 81 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 36 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 314 | 179 | 493 | 36 | 190 | 22 | 19 | 247 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 176 | 160 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 269 | 335 | 394 | 729 | 125 | 317 | 18 | 9 | 328 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 356 | 300 | 92 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 61 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 307 | 401 | 440 | 841 | 133 | 361 | 17 | 12 | 369 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 45 | 39 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 333 | 422 | 410 | 832 | 77 | 429 | 22 | 11 | 381 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 390 | 342 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 59 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 266 | 348 | 363 | 711 | 96 | 309 | 15 | 11 | 320 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 81 | 64 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 266 | 397 | 359 | 757 | 94 | 283 | 15 | 15 | 340 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 83 | 64 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 359 | 500 | 391 | 891 | 31 | 411 | 11 | 22 | 411 | 164 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 399 | 353 | 91 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 64 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 258 | 333 | 365 | 699 | 108 | 294 | 16 | 9 | 313 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 311 | 366 | 677 | 122 | 290 | 22 | 9 | 299 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 36 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 200 | 129 | 329 | 32 | 149 | 33 | 11 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 176 | 166 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 256 | 313 | 569 | 102 | 268 | 24 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 356 | 312 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 84 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 263 | 337 | 375 | 712 | 112 | 318 | 24 | 8 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 45 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 300 | 378 | 375 | 753 | 75 | 404 | 27 | 9 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 390 | 357 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 71 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 252 | 306 | 342 | 648 | 90 | 299 | 18 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 81 | 69 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 246 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 87 | 261 | 20 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 399 | 364 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 77 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 234 | 290 | 316 | 606 | 82 | 272 | 19 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 46 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 333 | 600 | 119 | 262 | 26 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 36 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 200 | 129 | 329 | 32 | 150 | 33 | 11 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK RAW | ACL White Sox | — | 36 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 314 | 179 | 493 | 36 | 190 | 22 | 19 | 247 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 479 | 117 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 126 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 244 | 308 | 349 | 656 | 104 | 310 | 24 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 532 | 460 | 135 | 33 | 3 | 7 | 58 | 92 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 293 | 379 | 424 | 802 | 130 | 346 | 17 | 11 | 356 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 599 | 541 | 139 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 46 | 115 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 257 | 319 | 344 | 662 | 87 | 308 | 19 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 599 | 509 | 144 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 78 | 90 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 283 | 381 | 369 | 751 | 86 | 327 | 15 | 13 | 340 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 406 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 89 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 229 | 285 | 313 | 598 | 84 | 276 | 20 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 445 | 394 | 101 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 74 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 256 | 331 | 365 | 697 | 109 | 294 | 17 | 9 | 312 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 36 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 200 | 125 | 325 | 31 | 149 | 33 | 11 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 483 | 117 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 126 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 242 | 308 | 346 | 654 | 104 | 301 | 24 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 599 | 545 | 139 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 46 | 115 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 255 | 319 | 341 | 660 | 86 | 302 | 19 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 410 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 89 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 227 | 285 | 310 | 595 | 83 | 271 | 20 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 483 | 117 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 126 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 242 | 308 | 346 | 654 | 104 | 301 | 24 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 599 | 545 | 139 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 46 | 115 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 255 | 319 | 341 | 660 | 86 | 302 | 19 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 410 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 89 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 227 | 285 | 310 | 595 | 83 | 271 | 20 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 10% | 380 | 349 | 86 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 77 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 246 | 303 | 339 | 642 | 93 | 300 | 20 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -8 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 10% | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 304 | 340 | 644 | 94 | 301 | 19 | 6 | 290 | 82 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 31% | 225 | 206 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 245 | 303 | 339 | 642 | 94 | 299 | 20 | 7 | 290 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 42% | 253 | 232 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 243 | 302 | 338 | 640 | 95 | 298 | 21 | 7 | 289 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 31% | 70 | 65 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 246 | 304 | 341 | 645 | 96 | 300 | 20 | 7 | 291 | 82 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 42% | 106 | 96 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 244 | 302 | 340 | 643 | 96 | 299 | 21 | 8 | 290 | 81 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 176 | 161 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 242 | 303 | 323 | 626 | 81 | 298 | 20 | 7 | 290 | 78 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +4 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 144 | 26 | 0 | 7 | 48 | 133 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 242 | 303 | 321 | 624 | 79 | 298 | 20 | 7 | 290 | 78 | -14 | +0 | -1 | -7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2245 | 2037 | 493 | 89 | 6 | 28 | 163 | 471 | 14 | 57 | 16 | 242 | 303 | 333 | 635 | 91 | 297 | 21 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -14 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 143 | 26 | 2 | 8 | 47 | 136 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 242 | 303 | 334 | 637 | 92 | 297 | 21 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -14 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 399 PAwOBA .310 → .269 (−41)K% 16.0% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.04% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 21.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.48% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .310 → .269; ISO .108 → .087; BABIP .294 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AABirmingham Barons · 46 PAwOBA .298 → .251 (−47)K% 21.7% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 5.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 20.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 5.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.55% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .298 → .251; ISO .122 → .102; BABIP .290 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABirmingham Barons · 390 PAwOBA .315 → .288 (−26)K% 15.1% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.13% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.03% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.67% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×0.998 | 23.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.71% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×0.998 | 6.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.019 | ×0.998 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.44% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .315 → .288; ISO .096 → .095; BABIP .309 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 81 PAwOBA .345 → .298 (−47)K% 14.8% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.81% | ÷0.955 | ×1.310 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷0.949 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 9.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.47% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.85% | ÷0.942 | ×0.870 | ×1.022 | ×0.978 | 26.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | ×1.022 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.850 | ×1.022 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.923 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 3.59% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 88, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .345 → .298; ISO .094 → .094; BABIP .283 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 45 PAwOBA .372 → .315 (−57)K% 22.2% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.38% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 39.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .372 → .315; ISO .077 → .041; BABIP .429 → .404. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 356 PAwOBA .369 → .308 (−61)K% 17.1% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.13% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.80% | ÷0.957 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 8.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.94% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×0.980 | 24.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.04% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×0.980 | 7.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | ×0.980 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.60% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 98, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .369 → .308; ISO .133 → .111; BABIP .361 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 176 PAwOBA .319 → .250 (−70)K% 17.6% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.61% | ÷0.952 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.006 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷0.972 | ×0.870 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 20.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.817 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.48% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 86, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .319 → .250; ISO .125 → .107; BABIP .317 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL White Sox · 36 PAwOBA .249 → .173 (−76)K% 22.2% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.994 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.44% | ÷0.951 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 12.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 11.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.942 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 3.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷2.194 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 339, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 120, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .249 → .173; ISO .036 → .026; BABIP .190 → .149. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .