Caden Connor — OGILVIE

Caden ConnorOF Birmingham Barons

Age 25 L/L 6'0" / 200 lbs AA BB +6%HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2027

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .302 / .343

PA320

HR6

K%21

BB%8

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

35→35

SPD

50→50

EYE

47↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$-2M	-$6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	ROK	ACL White Sox	36	30	3	1	0	0	5	12	0	0	0	.100	.229	.133	.362	.033	.158	33	14	.181	-3	-4	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
2024	23	A	2 teams	532	481	120	25	2	8	37	131	5	7	1	.249	.310	.360	.669	.110	.319	25	7	.293	83	-10	+1	+0	-3	+15	0.3
2025	24	AA	4 teams	599	541	139	21	1	9	46	120	3	21	3	.257	.319	.349	.668	.092	.310	20	8	.293	83	-12	+3	+0	-4	+17	0.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AA	2 teams	76	68	15	2	0	1	6	20	1	0	1	.221	.293	.294	.587	.074	.292	26	8	.253	52	-4	-0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
ROS	25	MLB	CWS	244	221	53	9	1	4	19	54	2	4	1	.240	.306	.344	.650	.104	.292	22	8	.290	80	-5	+0	+0	-1	+7	0.0
TOT	25	MLB	CWS	320	289	68	11	1	5	25	74	3	4	2	.235	.303	.332	.635	.097	.297	23	8	.281	73	-10	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	CWS	365	328	79	13	1	7	31	67	3	6	2	.241	.312	.351	.663	.110	.282	18	8	.300	88	-5	+0	+0	-2	+10	0.4
2028	27	MLB 26%	CWS	388	349	84	14	1	8	33	73	3	6	2	.241	.312	.355	.667	.115	.282	19	9	.302	89	-5	+0	+0	-2	+11	0.4
2029	28	MLB 38%	CWS	401	360	87	15	1	8	35	77	3	6	2	.242	.314	.356	.670	.114	.283	19	9	.302	89	-5	+0	-1	-2	+11	0.4
2030	29	MLB 47%	CWS	400	359	86	15	1	8	35	78	3	6	2	.240	.312	.354	.666	.114	.282	20	9	.301	88	-5	+0	-1	-2	+11	0.3
2031	30	MLB 56%	CWS	398	357	85	14	1	8	35	79	3	5	2	.238	.311	.350	.662	.112	.281	20	9	.298	86	-6	+0	-2	-2	+11	0.1
2032	31	MLB 66%	CWS	387	347	82	14	1	7	34	78	3	4	2	.236	.310	.343	.653	.107	.280	20	9	.294	83	-7	+0	-3	-2	+11	-0.2
2033	32	MLB 76%	CWS	370	332	78	13	1	7	32	77	3	3	1	.235	.308	.343	.651	.108	.279	21	9	.290	80	-8	+0	-4	-2	+10	-0.4
2034	33	MLB 93%	CWS	341	307	71	12	1	6	29	73	2	3	1	.231	.302	.336	.637	.104	.278	21	9	.284	76	-9	+0	-4	-2	+10	-0.6
2035	34	MLB	CWS	298	268	61	10	1	5	26	66	2	3	1	.228	.301	.328	.629	.101	.277	22	9	.278	71	-10	+0	-5	-2	+8	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4759	4280	1028	176	13	85	397	985	35	74	20	.240	.310	.347	.657	.107	.291	21	8	.293	83	-93	+7	-20	-29	+135	0.1
/ 162G	—			650	585	141	24	2	12	54	135	5	10	3	.241	.311	.350	.661	.109	.291	21	8	.293	83	-13	+1	-3	-4	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	ROK	ACL White Sox	36	28	4	1	0	0	7	8	0	0	0	.143	.314	.179	.493	.036	.190	22	19	.247	47	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	176	160	43	9	1	3	16	31	0	1	0	.269	.335	.394	.729	.125	.317	18	9	.328	109	+2	+0	—	—	+5	0.7
2024	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	356	300	92	24	2	4	42	61	5	6	1	.307	.401	.440	.841	.133	.361	17	12	.369	141	+16	+1	—	—	+10	2.8
2025	24	AAA	Charlotte Knights	45	39	13	0	0	1	5	10	1	1	2	.333	.422	.410	.832	.077	.429	22	11	.381	150	+3	-1	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	24	AA	Birmingham Barons	390	342	91	19	1	4	43	59	0	10	1	.266	.348	.363	.711	.096	.309	15	11	.320	103	+1	+2	—	—	+11	1.4
2025	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	81	64	17	0	0	2	12	12	2	2	0	.266	.397	.359	.757	.094	.283	15	15	.340	119	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	83	64	23	2	0	0	18	9	0	8	0	.359	.500	.391	.891	.031	.411	11	22	.411	173	+7	+2	—	—	+2	1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caden Connor (OGILVIE)	25	55	35	50	50	.238/.302/.343	.105	.292	6	5	21%	8%	82	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Heid 2013 · AAA	25	49→56	40	46→50	49	.237/.300/.322	.085	.282	8	13	19%	8%	76	+0.0	.235/.294/.325	.090	.303	6	11	23%	7%	73	-0.1	.245/.300/.335	.090	.319	5	9	23%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Vince Sinisi 2007 · AAA	25	50→53	43→45	46→45	46	.244/.293/.360	.116	.293	10	8	20%	6%	82	+0.5	.241/.280/.347	.106	.289	9	7	19%	5%	73	-0.1	.242/.274/.333	.092	.287	8	4	19%	4%	64	-0.3
✕Garin Cecchini 2016 · MLB	25	49→59	40→45	52→55	46	.232/.294/.328	.095	.303	8	12	25%	7%	74	-0.1	.215/.256/.302	.087	.270	7	11	22%	5%	51	-1.7	.216/.250/.299	.082	.266	6	10	20%	4%	46	-1.3
✕Jeff Corsaletti 2008 · AA	25	51→53	41→45	48→50	53	.243/.322/.346	.103	.299	8	12	21%	10%	92	+1.2	.235/.311/.350	.115	.286	9	10	20%	9%	88	+0.9	.231/.308/.347	.117	.275	10	8	19%	10%	83	+0.3
✕BJ Boyd 2018 · AAA	25	53→55	39→45	50	43	.254/.293/.345	.090	.310	6	11	20%	5%	77	+0.1	.244/.284/.326	.082	.303	5	10	20%	5%	69	-0.4	.261/.310/.376	.115	.317	11	10	21%	5%	90	+0.6
✕Cal Stevenson 2022 · AA	25	46→56	43→45	49→60	50	.225/.298/.334	.109	.287	11	15	25%	9%	78	+0.2	.232/.317/.348	.116	.306	11	24	25%	11%	90	+1.0	.240/.333/.358	.118	.308	11	30	23%	12%	98	+1.0
✕Greg Garcia 2015 · MLB	25	50→53	40	49→50	47	.238/.310/.334	.097	.309	7	11	24%	8%	83	+0.6	.244/.325/.331	.087	.313	5	11	22%	9%	89	+0.9	.241/.350/.334	.093	.308	6	3	21%	13%	99	+0.8
✕Bijan Rademacher 2016 · AA	25	48	41→45	44→45	49	.232/.302/.339	.107	.292	8	7	22%	8%	81	+0.4	.240/.302/.350	.110	.303	10	5	23%	8%	84	+0.6	.239/.295/.335	.096	.301	9	2	23%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Boog Powell 2018 · MLB	25	55→58	41→40	48→50	49	.264/.321/.364	.100	.316	8	15	19%	8%	95	+1.4	.231/.300/.328	.097	.306	8	16	25%	9%	77	+0.1	.204/.284/.285	.081	.289	6	17	29%	10%	57	-0.7
✕Carlos Alvarez 2013 · AAA	25	48	47→45	48→45	46	.237/.293/.371	.134	.294	14	10	24%	7%	85	+0.7	.227/.296/.345	.118	.278	10	8	21%	8%	80	+0.4	.249/.327/.336	.087	.300	6	6	18%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Nicky Lopez 2020 · MLB	25	54→61	39→40	49→55	50	.254/.303/.341	.087	.280	6	12	12%	6%	81	+0.4	.247/.307/.326	.079	.286	4	14	14%	7%	79	+0.3	.245/.313/.305	.060	.286	1	19	14%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Bryan Petersen 2012 · MLB	26	51→57	43→45	46→50	49	.247/.310/.363	.116	.295	10	11	20%	8%	91	+1.1	.231/.295/.329	.098	.303	7	12	24%	8%	75	-0.0	.215/.278/.304	.089	.298	6	11	28%	7%	57	-1.1
✕Chris Getz 2009 · AAA	25	53→56	41→40	49→60	50	.254/.302/.348	.094	.281	8	14	13%	6%	82	+0.5	.250/.308/.331	.081	.284	5	26	13%	7%	80	+0.4	.244/.307/.295	.051	.277	1	34	12%	7%	68	-0.3
✕Sergio Perez 2015 · AAA	25	56	40	52→50	43	.268/.315/.365	.097	.331	7	13	21%	5%	92	+1.2	.254/.299/.331	.077	.314	5	7	19%	5%	76	+0.1	.257/.293/.329	.072	.312	4	6	18%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Nate Spears 2011 · AAA	26	48→55	44→45	49→50	51	.234/.301/.354	.120	.270	11	9	18%	8%	85	+0.7	.214/.286/.334	.120	.264	12	11	22%	8%	73	-0.1	.206/.271/.309	.103	.274	9	8	27%	8%	57	-0.5
✕Joe McCarthy 2019 · AAA	25	47→49	45	52→50	52	.229/.313/.358	.129	.287	11	14	23%	10%	91	+1.1	.204/.284/.342	.138	.286	14	8	32%	9%	76	+0.0	.192/.273/.336	.144	.262	17	4	32%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Carlos Asuaje 2017 · MLB	25	51→56	43→45	48→45	46	.246/.297/.366	.120	.297	9	8	20%	6%	85	+0.7	.234/.301/.334	.100	.287	7	4	20%	8%	79	+0.3	.221/.299/.314	.094	.271	7	1	20%	9%	70	-0.2
✕Darius Hill 2023 · AAA	25	54→58	42→45	45	42	.262/.296/.369	.106	.313	9	7	19%	4%	85	+0.7	.241/.285/.336	.095	.299	6	6	20%	5%	72	-0.2	.223/.275/.307	.084	.285	4	4	22%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Terrin Vavra 2022 · AA	25	46	44→45	48→50	48	.227/.296/.347	.121	.287	11	12	24%	8%	81	+0.4	.250/.325/.358	.108	.328	8	10	24%	9%	95	+1.4	.255/.330/.354	.099	.334	7	8	23%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Brian Dinkelman 2009 · AA	25	49→56	42→45	52→50	48	.234/.296/.348	.114	.272	8	10	17%	6%	80	+0.4	.241/.298/.345	.104	.290	7	8	18%	6%	81	+0.4	.239/.293/.329	.090	.294	6	7	20%	6%	71	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)