Darius Hill
OF Iowa Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | AAACHC | 372 | .272/.343/.377 | 2 | 3 | 72 | — | .238/.292/.320 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAACHC | 392 | .267/.327/.355 | 2 | 3 | 64 | — | .238/.286/.307 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AACHC | 209 | .199/.284/.312 | 3 | 1 | 38 | — | .183/.245/.287 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBCHC | 14 | .224/.280/.314 | 0 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBCHC | 44 | .222/.279/.311 | 0 | 0 | 65 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 94 | 85 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 224 | 283 | 306 | 588 | 82 | 237 | 9 | 7 | 264 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 37 | 36 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 306 | 324 | 472 | 797 | 167 | 312 | 8 | 3 | 349 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 274 | 249 | 69 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 47 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 277 | 338 | 357 | 696 | 80 | 323 | 17 | 8 | 315 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 32 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 375 | 375 | 469 | 844 | 94 | 480 | 22 | 0 | 375 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 373 | 343 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 53 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 318 | 362 | 434 | 797 | 117 | 364 | 14 | 6 | 350 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 201 | 185 | 57 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 308 | 360 | 486 | 846 | 178 | 329 | 12 | 6 | 372 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 372 | 334 | 91 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 272 | 343 | 377 | 720 | 105 | 322 | 15 | 9 | 325 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 392 | 352 | 94 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 70 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 267 | 327 | 355 | 682 | 88 | 322 | 18 | 8 | 304 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 114 | 99 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 310 | 323 | 633 | 111 | 270 | 22 | 11 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 95 | 87 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 253 | 299 | 551 | 115 | 230 | 25 | 7 | 252 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 94 | 87 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 239 | 264 | 503 | 69 | 203 | 12 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 37 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 270 | 417 | 687 | 167 | 242 | 11 | 3 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 274 | 258 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 58 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 252 | 290 | 314 | 604 | 62 | 309 | 21 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 32 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 281 | 281 | 344 | 625 | 62 | 430 | 31 | 0 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 373 | 351 | 103 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 293 | 324 | 390 | 715 | 97 | 344 | 17 | 3 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 201 | 189 | 52 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 275 | 315 | 429 | 744 | 153 | 306 | 15 | 4 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 372 | 344 | 82 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 66 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 292 | 320 | 612 | 81 | 292 | 18 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 392 | 361 | 86 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 84 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 238 | 286 | 307 | 593 | 69 | 294 | 21 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 114 | 103 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 265 | 291 | 557 | 97 | 252 | 26 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 95 | 89 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 221 | 281 | 502 | 112 | 214 | 31 | 5 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 131 | 124 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 210 | 240 | 306 | 547 | 97 | 226 | 12 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 131 | 121 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 248 | 295 | 355 | 650 | 107 | 259 | 8 | 6 | 288 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 290 | 76 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 262 | 296 | 328 | 624 | 66 | 329 | 22 | 4 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 306 | 281 | 81 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 54 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 288 | 342 | 370 | 712 | 82 | 341 | 18 | 7 | 321 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 574 | 539 | 155 | 33 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 95 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 288 | 323 | 403 | 725 | 115 | 336 | 17 | 4 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 574 | 528 | 166 | 36 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 77 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 314 | 362 | 453 | 814 | 138 | 352 | 13 | 6 | 358 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 372 | 344 | 82 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 66 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 292 | 320 | 612 | 81 | 292 | 18 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 372 | 334 | 91 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 272 | 343 | 377 | 720 | 105 | 322 | 15 | 9 | 325 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 392 | 361 | 86 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 84 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 238 | 286 | 307 | 593 | 69 | 301 | 21 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 392 | 352 | 94 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 70 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 267 | 327 | 355 | 682 | 88 | 322 | 18 | 8 | 304 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 192 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 177 | 240 | 266 | 506 | 89 | 244 | 29 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 209 | 186 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 284 | 312 | 595 | 113 | 252 | 23 | 9 | 273 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 131 | 125 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 208 | 240 | 304 | 544 | 96 | 214 | 12 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 289 | 76 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 263 | 296 | 329 | 625 | 66 | 322 | 22 | 4 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 574 | 541 | 155 | 33 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 95 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 287 | 323 | 401 | 724 | 115 | 331 | 17 | 4 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 372 | 343 | 82 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 66 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 239 | 292 | 321 | 613 | 82 | 292 | 18 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 392 | 365 | 86 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 84 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 236 | 286 | 304 | 590 | 68 | 294 | 21 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 191 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 240 | 267 | 507 | 89 | 235 | 29 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 392 | 365 | 86 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 84 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 236 | 286 | 304 | 590 | 68 | 294 | 21 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 191 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 240 | 267 | 507 | 89 | 235 | 29 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | CHC | 10% | 259 | 239 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 278 | 309 | 587 | 87 | 288 | 24 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | CHC | 10% | 14 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 280 | 314 | 594 | 90 | 291 | 21 | 7 | 268 | 66 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | CHC | 27% | 162 | 150 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 277 | 306 | 583 | 86 | 286 | 24 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -7 | +0 | -2 | -1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | CHC | 27% | 44 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 279 | 311 | 589 | 89 | 290 | 25 | 7 | 266 | 65 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 44 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 250 | 244 | 494 | 49 | 267 | 25 | 7 | 266 | 71 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 119 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 251 | 246 | 497 | 50 | 268 | 25 | 7 | 266 | 71 | -27 | +0 | -8 | -4 | +14 | -2.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2282 | 2125 | 519 | 103 | 13 | 19 | 119 | 461 | 15 | 23 | 17 | 244 | 289 | 332 | 621 | 88 | 301 | 20 | 5 | 273 | 71 | -12 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +6 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 147 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 131 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 243 | 288 | 329 | 617 | 86 | 300 | 20 | 5 | 273 | 71 | -27 | +0 | -5 | -4 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 114 PAwOBA .285 → .240 (−45)K% 21.9% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.93% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.57% | ÷0.949 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×0.992 | 17.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×0.992 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.939 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×0.992 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.125 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.83% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .285 → .240; ISO .111 → .088; BABIP .270 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 95 PAwOBA .246 → .205 (−41)K% 25.3% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.26% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.37% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.87% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×0.968 | 14.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | ×0.968 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.025 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷0.911 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 2.70% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .246 → .205; ISO .115 → .099; BABIP .230 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 392 PAwOBA .301 → .263 (−38)K% 17.9% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.91% | ÷0.949 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.11% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 22.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 7.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.46% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .301 → .263; ISO .088 → .073; BABIP .322 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 372 PAwOBA .316 → .274 (−43)K% 15.1% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.05% | ÷1.019 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.87% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.02% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×1.018 | 21.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.018 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.916 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×1.018 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.72% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.53% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 110, 3B 83, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .316 → .274; ISO .105 → .091; BABIP .322 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 373 PAwOBA .344 → .312 (−32)K% 14.2% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.21% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.36% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.24% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×0.993 | ×1.033 | 26.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.93% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.033 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷1.118 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.033 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 93, 3B 124, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .344 → .312; ISO .117 → .100; BABIP .364 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AATennessee Smokies · 201 PAwOBA .362 → .318 (−44)K% 11.9% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.94% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.47% | ÷0.940 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.98% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×0.998 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.07% | ÷0.929 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×0.998 | 7.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.973 | ×0.880 | ×0.991 | ×0.998 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 95, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .362 → .318; ISO .178 → .153; BABIP .329 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AATennessee Smokies · 274 PAwOBA .305 → .269 (−36)K% 17.2% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.15% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.30% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 4.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.21% | ÷0.970 | ×0.940 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 28.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.48% | ÷1.015 | ×0.870 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 2.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.86% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .305 → .269; ISO .080 → .063; BABIP .323 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 32 PAwOBA .364 → .288 (−76)K% 21.9% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.88% | ÷0.961 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 32.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 10.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 95, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .288; ISO .094 → .073; BABIP .480 → .430. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).