Charlie Tilson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 25 | AAACWS | 292 | .244/.289/.289 | 0 | 10 | 40 | — | .225/.258/.262 | |
| 2018 | 25 | MLBCWS | 121 | .264/.331/.292 | 0 | 2 | 77 | -1.0 | ||
| 2019 | 26 | AAACWS | 258 | .288/.346/.398 | 3 | 4 | 66 | — | .235/.276/.321 | |
| 2019 | 26 | MLBCWS | 157 | .229/.293/.285 | 1 | 4 | 64 | -0.8 | ||
| 2021 | 28 | AAAPHI | 232 | .296/.363/.404 | 1 | 13 | 85 | — | .276/.327/.376 | |
| 2022 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 30 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 400 | 407 | 807 | 74 | 391 | 13 | 10 | 367 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 39 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 385 | 382 | 767 | 88 | 357 | 15 | 13 | 349 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 411 | 376 | 114 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 58 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 303 | 350 | 388 | 738 | 85 | 349 | 14 | 6 | 326 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 145 | 139 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 237 | 269 | 324 | 593 | 86 | 284 | 19 | 4 | 266 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 402 | 370 | 114 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 76 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 308 | 357 | 414 | 770 | 105 | 377 | 19 | 6 | 342 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 594 | 539 | 159 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 46 | 72 | 2 | 46 | 19 | 295 | 353 | 388 | 740 | 93 | 333 | 12 | 8 | 330 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 69 | 59 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 203 | 309 | 254 | 563 | 51 | 261 | 19 | 13 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 351 | 99 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 33 | 51 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 282 | 349 | 407 | 756 | 125 | 317 | 13 | 8 | 332 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 40 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 188 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 62 | 231 | 18 | 18 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 121 | 106 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 264 | 331 | 292 | 623 | 28 | 322 | 17 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -3 | -1 | -4 | -4 | +3 | -1.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 292 | 270 | 66 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 52 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 244 | 289 | 289 | 578 | 44 | 301 | 18 | 5 | 261 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 157 | 144 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 229 | 293 | 285 | 578 | 56 | 305 | 24 | 6 | 268 | 64 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +3 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 258 | 236 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 288 | 346 | 398 | 745 | 110 | 340 | 17 | 7 | 334 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 232 | 203 | 60 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 47 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 296 | 363 | 404 | 767 | 108 | 376 | 20 | 7 | 336 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 278 | 250 | 61 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 58 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 244 | 309 | 288 | 597 | 44 | 312 | 21 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -9 | +0 | -5 | -9 | +6 | -1.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 30 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 300 | 286 | 586 | 36 | 322 | 20 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 39 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 333 | 343 | 676 | 86 | 329 | 23 | 10 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 411 | 385 | 108 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 81 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 281 | 313 | 358 | 671 | 78 | 336 | 20 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 145 | 141 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 227 | 248 | 291 | 539 | 64 | 289 | 24 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 402 | 376 | 98 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 108 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 261 | 302 | 359 | 661 | 98 | 350 | 27 | 4 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 594 | 554 | 158 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 31 | 90 | 2 | 46 | 19 | 285 | 325 | 366 | 692 | 81 | 330 | 15 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 359 | 98 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 67 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 273 | 326 | 393 | 718 | 120 | 312 | 17 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 121 | 107 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 262 | 331 | 290 | 620 | 28 | 322 | 17 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -3 | -1 | -4 | -4 | +3 | -1.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 292 | 275 | 62 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 63 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 225 | 258 | 262 | 520 | 36 | 283 | 22 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 157 | 145 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 228 | 287 | 283 | 569 | 55 | 305 | 24 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +3 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 258 | 243 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 235 | 276 | 321 | 597 | 86 | 294 | 21 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 232 | 210 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 57 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 276 | 327 | 376 | 704 | 100 | 348 | 25 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 30 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 300 | 286 | 586 | 36 | 318 | 20 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 30 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 400 | 407 | 807 | 74 | 391 | 13 | 10 | 367 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 421 | 117 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 89 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 278 | 312 | 356 | 669 | 78 | 343 | 20 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 450 | 410 | 124 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 64 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 302 | 353 | 388 | 741 | 85 | 350 | 14 | 7 | 328 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 547 | 517 | 130 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 143 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 251 | 287 | 340 | 628 | 89 | 337 | 26 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 547 | 509 | 147 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 104 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 289 | 333 | 389 | 722 | 100 | 352 | 19 | 5 | 322 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 663 | 618 | 176 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 35 | 100 | 2 | 50 | 19 | 285 | 325 | 364 | 689 | 79 | 334 | 15 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 663 | 598 | 171 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 55 | 85 | 2 | 50 | 19 | 286 | 348 | 375 | 723 | 89 | 326 | 13 | 8 | 323 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 359 | 98 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 67 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 273 | 326 | 393 | 718 | 120 | 322 | 17 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 351 | 99 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 33 | 51 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 282 | 349 | 407 | 756 | 125 | 317 | 13 | 8 | 332 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | INTL MLE | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 40 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 188 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 62 | 231 | 18 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | INTL RAW | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 40 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 188 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 62 | 231 | 18 | 18 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 382 | 90 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 83 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 236 | 279 | 270 | 549 | 34 | 299 | 20 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 413 | 376 | 94 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 72 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 250 | 301 | 290 | 591 | 40 | 307 | 17 | 6 | 267 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 415 | 388 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 92 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 232 | 280 | 307 | 587 | 75 | 296 | 22 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 415 | 380 | 101 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 81 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 266 | 326 | 355 | 681 | 89 | 328 | 20 | 7 | 309 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 232 | 210 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 57 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 276 | 327 | 376 | 704 | 100 | 370 | 25 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 232 | 203 | 60 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 47 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 296 | 363 | 404 | 767 | 108 | 376 | 20 | 7 | 336 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 30 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 300 | 286 | 586 | 36 | 322 | 20 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 426 | 117 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 89 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 275 | 312 | 352 | 664 | 77 | 335 | 20 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 547 | 516 | 130 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 143 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 252 | 287 | 341 | 628 | 89 | 334 | 26 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 663 | 621 | 176 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 35 | 100 | 2 | 50 | 19 | 283 | 325 | 362 | 688 | 79 | 330 | 15 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 364 | 98 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 67 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 269 | 326 | 387 | 713 | 118 | 312 | 17 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 387 | 90 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 83 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 233 | 279 | 266 | 545 | 34 | 294 | 20 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 415 | 386 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 92 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 233 | 280 | 308 | 588 | 75 | 298 | 22 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 232 | 214 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 57 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 271 | 327 | 369 | 697 | 98 | 348 | 25 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 278 | 250 | 61 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 58 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 244 | 309 | 288 | 597 | 44 | 312 | 21 | 7 | 274 | 75 | -9 | +0 | -5 | -9 | +6 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 142 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 136 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 243 | 308 | 284 | 592 | 41 | 312 | 21 | 7 | 274 | 75 | -22 | +0 | -12 | -21 | +14 | -4.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3185 | 2955 | 772 | 96 | 39 | 21 | 163 | 644 | 23 | 127 | 49 | 261 | 305 | 341 | 646 | 80 | 326 | 20 | 5 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +0 | -5 | -9 | +6 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 158 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 33 | 131 | 5 | 26 | 10 | 262 | 306 | 342 | 647 | 80 | 327 | 20 | 5 | 279 | 75 | -22 | +0 | -12 | -21 | +14 | -4.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 232 PAwOBA .331 → .294 (−36)K% 20.3% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.26% | ÷0.992 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.33% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.56% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 26.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 7.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 1.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.957 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.46% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .331 → .294; ISO .108 → .095; BABIP .376 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 258 PAwOBA .326 → .266 (−60)K% 16.7% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.36% | ÷1.077 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.91% | ÷1.061 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.003 | 22.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷0.921 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.003 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.003 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.212 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 112, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .326 → .266; ISO .110 → .092; BABIP .340 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 292 PAwOBA .255 → .227 (−28)K% 17.8% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.81% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.48% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.77% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 23.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.50% | ÷1.077 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.319 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .255 → .227; ISO .044 → .036; BABIP .301 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 395 PAwOBA .327 → .306 (−21)K% 12.9% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.91% | ÷0.988 | ×1.290 | — | — | 16.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.35% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 6.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.67% | ÷0.989 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 23.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.33% | ÷0.941 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 5.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.951 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 2.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.931 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 1.17% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 90, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .327 → .306; ISO .125 → .116; BABIP .317 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AASpringfield Cardinals · 594 PAwOBA .322 → .303 (−19)K% 12.1% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.12% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.98% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.047 | ×1.027 | 27.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.28% | ÷1.003 | ×0.840 | ×1.047 | ×1.027 | 3.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.93% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×1.047 | ×1.027 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.140 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.62% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .322 → .303; ISO .093 → .084; BABIP .333 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 402 PAwOBA .332 → .288 (−44)K% 18.9% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.91% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.72% | ÷0.971 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.63% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 28.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.72% | ÷0.933 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 2.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.72% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 2.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.70% | ÷0.809 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.87% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 115, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .332 → .288; ISO .105 → .101; BABIP .377 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AASpringfield Cardinals · 145 PAwOBA .259 → .235 (−25)K% 19.3% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.31% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.14% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 2.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.42% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 24.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.60% | ÷0.982 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 3.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷0.991 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.221 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.23% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 98, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .259 → .235; ISO .086 → .068; BABIP .284 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 APeoria Chiefs · 411 PAwOBA .318 → .287 (−30)K% 14.1% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.11% | ÷0.980 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.84% | ÷1.068 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.19% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 29.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.203 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 1.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.938 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 1.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.26% | ÷0.867 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.18% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 100, 2B 141, 3B 88, K 96, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .318 → .287; ISO .085 → .077; BABIP .349 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .