Alec Keller

PosLF

B/TL/R

Born1992-05-13

Age (2027)35

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2018	26	AA/A+2 orgs	361	.337/.397/.446	3	3	112	—	.322/.361/.421
2019	27	AAACOL	415	.302/.350/.386	3	10	71	—	.258/.296/.317
2021	29	AAAWSH	86	.311/.400/.432	2	2	104	—	.286/.353/.364

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	23	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	198	180	51	9	1	0	15	25	0	3	3	283	338	344	683	61	323	13	8	307	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	269	245	74	13	5	0	15	38	2	8	6	302	347	396	743	94	356	14	6	325	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	478	438	125	20	5	3	35	78	1	14	2	285	340	374	714	89	340	16	7	320	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	311	288	76	13	2	3	18	60	4	6	1	264	316	354	670	90	324	19	6	303	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	241	223	75	12	3	2	14	30	2	1	2	336	381	444	825	108	380	12	6	366	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	120	100	34	6	1	1	15	12	1	2	2	340	431	450	881	110	367	10	12	384	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	415	381	115	19	2	3	25	61	3	10	0	302	350	386	735	84	349	15	6	327	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	86	74	23	3	0	2	10	9	1	2	0	311	400	432	832	122	328	10	12	372	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	23	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	198	186	48	8	1	0	9	35	0	3	3	258	292	312	604	54	299	18	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	269	251	66	11	4	0	9	52	2	8	6	263	294	339	633	76	320	19	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	478	453	115	16	4	2	20	114	1	14	2	254	287	320	607	66	330	24	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	311	293	70	11	2	2	13	72	4	6	1	239	281	311	591	72	312	23	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	241	228	74	11	3	2	9	37	2	1	2	325	356	425	781	101	368	15	4	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	120	107	34	5	1	1	8	17	1	2	2	318	371	411	782	93	344	14	7	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	415	388	100	15	1	2	18	83	3	10	0	258	296	317	613	59	314	20	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	86	77	22	3	0	1	7	11	1	2	0	286	353	364	717	78	309	13	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	467	437	113	19	5	0	18	88	2	11	9	259	291	325	616	66	320	19	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	467	425	125	22	6	0	30	63	2	11	9	294	344	374	718	80	342	13	6	317	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	478	453	115	16	4	2	20	114	1	14	2	254	287	320	607	66	333	24	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ RAW	Potomac Nationals	—	478	438	125	20	5	3	35	78	1	14	2	285	340	374	714	89	340	16	7	320	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	311	293	70	11	2	2	13	72	4	6	1	239	281	311	591	72	311	23	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	311	288	76	13	2	3	18	60	4	6	1	264	316	354	670	90	324	19	6	303	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	361	336	107	16	4	3	16	54	3	3	4	318	355	417	772	98	367	15	4	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	361	323	109	18	4	3	29	42	3	3	4	337	397	446	843	108	376	12	8	372	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	415	388	100	15	1	2	18	83	3	10	0	258	296	317	613	59	319	20	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	415	381	115	19	2	3	25	61	3	10	0	302	350	386	735	84	349	15	6	327	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	86	77	22	3	0	1	7	11	1	2	0	286	353	364	717	78	318	13	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	86	74	23	3	0	2	10	9	1	2	0	311	400	432	832	122	328	10	12	372	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	467	444	113	19	5	0	18	88	2	11	9	255	291	320	611	65	311	19	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	478	454	115	16	4	2	20	114	1	14	2	253	287	319	606	66	330	24	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	311	291	70	11	2	2	13	72	4	6	1	241	281	313	593	72	312	23	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	361	339	107	16	4	3	16	54	3	3	4	316	355	413	768	97	360	15	4	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	415	391	100	15	1	2	18	83	3	10	0	256	296	315	610	59	314	20	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	86	78	22	3	0	1	7	11	1	2	0	282	353	359	712	77	309	13	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	2118	1984	527	80	16	10	92	422	14	46	16	266	303	337	640	72	330	20	4	282	77	-58	+3	+0	-23	+46	-3.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	609	162	25	5	3	28	130	4	14	5	266	303	338	641	72	331	20	4	282	77	-18	+1	+0	-7	+14	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 86 PAwOBA .367 → .322 (−45)K% 10.5% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.47%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	12.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.63%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.77%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.07%
Singles /BIP	27.69%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.050	×0.982	26.71%
Doubles /BIP	4.62%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.050	×0.982	3.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.050	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.08%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.18%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .367 → .322; ISO .122 → .095; BABIP .328 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 415 PAwOBA .322 → .273 (−49)K% 14.7% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.70%	÷0.953	×1.290	—	—	19.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.02%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×1.003	4.33%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.71%
Singles /BIP	28.44%	÷0.959	×0.900	×0.981	×1.003	26.26%
Doubles /BIP	5.94%	÷0.976	×0.810	×0.981	×1.003	4.85%
Triples /BIP	0.62%	÷1.140	×0.810	×0.981	×1.003	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	0.94%	÷0.962	×0.780	—	×1.003	0.76%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 128, K 91, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .322 → .273; ISO .084 → .065; BABIP .349 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 241 PAwOBA .356 → .330 (−27)K% 12.4% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.45%	÷0.987	×1.220	—	—	15.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.39%	÷1.037	×0.700	—	×0.988	3.60%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.70%
Singles /BIP	30.05%	÷1.017	×0.970	×1.050	×0.988	29.75%
Doubles /BIP	6.22%	÷1.012	×0.860	×1.050	×0.988	5.48%
Triples /BIP	1.55%	÷1.070	×0.950	×1.050	×0.988	1.43%
Home runs /BIP	1.04%	÷0.925	×0.780	—	×0.988	0.86%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .356 → .330; ISO .108 → .095; BABIP .380 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Potomac Nationals · 120 PAwOBA .379 → .344 (−35)K% 10.0% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.00%	÷0.998	×1.420	—	—	14.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.83%	÷1.013	×0.630	—	×0.968	6.52%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.860	—	×0.968	0.69%
Singles /BIP	29.55%	÷0.992	×0.940	×1.050	×0.968	28.45%
Doubles /BIP	6.82%	÷1.020	×0.830	×1.050	×0.968	5.64%
Triples /BIP	1.14%	÷0.900	×0.800	×1.050	×0.968	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	1.14%	÷1.017	×0.900	—	×0.968	0.97%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .379 → .344; ISO .110 → .100; BABIP .367 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 311 PAwOBA .295 → .264 (−31)K% 19.3% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.29%	÷1.022	×1.220	—	—	23.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.79%	÷0.974	×0.700	—	×0.998	4.15%
HBP% /PA	1.29%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.09%
Singles /BIP	25.44%	÷1.016	×0.970	×1.026	×0.998	24.86%
Doubles /BIP	5.70%	÷0.998	×0.860	×1.026	×0.998	5.03%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷0.906	×0.950	×1.026	×0.998	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	1.32%	÷0.970	×0.780	—	×0.998	1.06%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .295 → .264; ISO .090 → .078; BABIP .324 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Potomac Nationals · 478 PAwOBA .312 → .269 (−43)K% 16.3% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.32%	÷0.974	×1.420	—	—	23.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.11%	÷1.061	×0.630	—	×0.988	4.17%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.860	—	×0.988	0.18%
Singles /BIP	26.94%	÷0.966	×0.940	×1.046	×0.988	27.08%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.010	×0.830	×1.046	×0.988	4.71%
Triples /BIP	1.39%	÷0.975	×0.800	×1.046	×0.988	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	0.83%	÷1.025	×0.900	—	×0.988	0.72%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 93, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .312 → .269; ISO .089 → .072; BABIP .340 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AHagerstown Suns · 269 PAwOBA .318 → .271 (−46)K% 14.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.13%	÷0.971	×1.340	—	—	19.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.58%	÷1.054	×0.660	—	×0.990	3.46%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.770	—	×0.990	0.57%
Singles /BIP	27.05%	÷1.047	×0.920	×1.050	×0.990	24.71%
Doubles /BIP	6.28%	÷0.992	×0.820	×1.050	×0.990	5.40%
Triples /BIP	2.42%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.050	×0.990	2.05%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.979	×0.820	—	×0.990	0.00%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .318 → .271; ISO .094 → .080; BABIP .356 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Potomac Nationals · 198 PAwOBA .302 → .261 (−41)K% 12.6% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.63%	÷1.006	×1.420	—	—	17.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.07%	÷1.022	×0.630	—	×0.998	4.35%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.860	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.45%	÷1.030	×0.940	×1.038	×0.998	25.00%
Doubles /BIP	5.81%	÷1.016	×0.830	×1.038	×0.998	4.91%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷0.937	×0.800	×1.038	×0.998	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.900	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .302 → .261; ISO .061 → .052; BABIP .323 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).