Bryant Olson — OGILVIE

Bryant Olson P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137145vR 153

ERA6.30

FIP6.30

K%22.8%

BB%24.9%

K-BB%-2.1%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	30	141	47	35	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	30.2%	-7.0%	1.5%	3.94	5.79	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	30	141	47	35	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	30.2%	-7.0%	1.5%	3.94	5.79	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	30	141	47	35	2	0%	1.1	33.3%	24.8%	8.5%	1.4%	3.94	4.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	21	10	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	2.38	—	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	21	10	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	2.38	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	WSH	9	0	11	49	21	10	1	0%	1.3	42.9%	20.4%	22.4%	2.0%	2.38	3.19	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	26	0	27	116	27	24	3	0%	1.1	23.4%	20.5%	3.0%	2.9%	5.84	5.67	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	11	0	12	51	12	10	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	20.5%	3.0%	2.9%	5.84	5.67	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	12	10	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	20.5%	3.0%	2.9%	5.84	5.29	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	171	17	0%	1.1	23.4%	20.5%	3.0%	2.9%	5.84	5.29	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		36	0	41	190	54	53	3	0%	1.1	28.3%	27.7%	0.6%	1.6%	3.51	5.12	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	0	200	927	262	257	15	0%	1.1	28.3%	27.7%	0.6%	1.6%	3.51	5.12	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryant Olson (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.30	22.8%	24.9%	2.9%	—	5.67	23.4%	3.0%	27	-0.63	—	—	—
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	91
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	89
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	87
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	83
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	82
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	79
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	79
Eric Torres L 2023 · 6.62 FIP	23	SU	6.62	21.2%	19.8%	5.1%	.283	4.18	26.5%	10.4%	56	-2.44	2.81	155	78
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	76
Adrian Almeida L 2018 · 5.49 FIP	23	SU	5.49	19.1%	24.5%	1.6%	.223	5.10	19.9%	-4.6%	59	-0.39	4.27	188	76
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	76
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	75
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	75
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	75
Francis Beriguete L 2021 · 6.05 FIP	21	SU	6.05	20.8%	27.7%	2.2%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	101	74
Destin Dotson L 2022 · 5.84 FIP	22	SU	5.84	23.0%	19.9%	4.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	113	74
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	74
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	73
Jake Brentz L 2018 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	20.0%	24.9%	1.5%	.389	4.08	24.7%	11.9%	117	-1.28	3.93	235	73
Joshua Javier L 2021 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	24.2%	27.5%	2.2%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	163	73