Victor Familia

C DSL Pirates Gold

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 196 lbs ROK HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1206ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Pirates B…	110	.247/.413/.400	0	1	51	—	.144/.294/.222
2026	19	ROKDSL Pirates G…	87	.206/.412/.270	0	3	44	—	.132/.306/.176
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBPIT	197	.197/.284/.279	1	5	63	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBPIT	35	.202/.289/.294	0	1	68	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBPIT	92	.206/.293/.307	1	3	73	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed84

Z-Con%77

Whiff%73

BB%63

Chase%55

wRC+54

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsPablo Aliendo (age 20) · Andrés Nolaya (age 19) · Hans Montero (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .282 / .277

PA48

HR0

K%30

BB%8

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	DSL Pirates Black	—	110	85	21	9	2	0	17	38	7	1	3	247	413	400	813	153	438	35	15	371	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL Pirates Gold	—	87	63	13	2	1	0	15	18	7	3	0	206	412	270	682	63	283	21	17	332	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	—	110	90	13	5	1	0	12	47	7	1	3	144	294	222	516	78	283	43	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	87	68	9	1	1	0	10	22	7	3	0	132	306	176	482	44	187	25	11	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	—	110	90	13	5	1	0	12	47	7	1	3	144	294	222	516	78	295	43	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	—	110	85	21	9	2	0	17	38	7	1	3	247	413	400	813	153	438	35	15	371	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	87	68	9	1	1	0	10	22	7	3	0	132	306	176	482	44	191	25	11	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	—	87	63	13	2	1	0	15	18	7	3	0	206	412	270	682	63	283	21	17	332	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	—	110	90	13	5	1	0	12	47	7	1	3	144	294	222	516	78	283	43	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	87	70	9	1	1	0	10	22	7	3	0	129	306	171	477	43	187	25	11	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	—	110	90	13	5	1	0	12	47	7	1	3	144	294	222	516	78	283	43	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	87	70	9	1	1	0	10	22	7	3	0	129	306	171	477	43	187	25	11	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PIT	0%	197	173	34	7	2	1	17	60	5	5	2	197	284	279	564	82	288	30	9	261	63	-9	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	34%	103	91	19	4	1	1	9	31	2	3	1	202	289	294	584	93	290	30	9	269	68	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	PIT	48%	190	168	35	7	2	2	16	56	4	6	2	206	293	308	601	101	291	29	8	275	73	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	286	253	54	11	3	4	24	83	7	10	3	210	296	319	615	109	292	29	8	281	76	-8	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	365	323	69	14	3	6	31	104	8	13	4	214	299	329	628	115	293	28	8	286	79	-9	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	PIT	56%	409	362	78	15	4	7	35	115	9	14	4	216	301	337	637	120	293	28	9	289	82	-9	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	PIT	56%	435	386	84	16	4	8	37	123	9	15	5	217	301	339	640	123	293	28	9	290	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	445	394	86	17	4	8	38	126	10	15	5	215	300	337	637	121	292	28	9	289	82	-10	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	445	395	84	16	4	8	38	127	9	15	5	214	298	332	630	118	291	29	9	286	80	-11	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	PIT	58%	439	390	82	16	4	7	37	126	9	14	5	211	295	325	620	114	289	29	8	282	77	-12	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	PIT	60%	430	382	79	15	3	7	36	125	9	14	5	208	291	317	609	110	287	29	8	278	74	-13	+1	-2	+8	+9	0.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	PIT	62%	394	350	72	14	3	6	33	116	8	12	6	204	286	307	594	104	284	29	8	272	70	-14	+0	-3	+7	+9	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	34%	35	31	5	1	0	0	3	10	1	1	0	202	289	294	584	92	291	29	9	269	68	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	PIT	48%	92	82	17	4	1	1	8	27	2	3	1	206	293	307	600	100	292	29	9	275	73	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	155	137	28	6	1	2	13	45	4	5	2	210	296	317	613	107	293	29	8	280	76	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	202	178	39	8	2	3	17	58	5	7	2	213	299	326	625	113	294	29	8	285	79	-5	+1	+0	+4	+4	0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	PIT	56%	229	202	44	9	2	4	20	65	5	8	3	216	300	334	634	118	294	28	9	288	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2033	26	MLB CTX	PIT	56%	245	217	47	10	2	4	21	69	5	8	3	216	301	336	637	120	294	28	9	289	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	246	218	47	10	2	4	21	70	5	8	3	215	300	333	633	118	293	28	9	288	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2035	28	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	244	216	46	9	2	4	21	70	5	8	3	213	298	329	626	116	292	29	9	285	80	-6	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	PIT	58%	255	226	48	10	2	4	22	73	5	8	3	211	295	323	617	112	290	29	9	281	77	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	PIT	60%	259	230	48	10	2	4	22	75	5	8	3	208	291	315	606	107	288	29	8	277	74	-8	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	PIT	62%	243	216	44	9	2	3	20	72	5	7	3	203	286	305	592	102	285	30	8	271	70	-9	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2205	1953	413	86	18	33	188	634	47	71	26	211	296	325	621	113	293	29	9	282	76	-58	+4	-4	+39	+48	2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	121	25	5	10	55	187	14	21	8	210	295	323	617	113	291	29	8	282	76	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4186	3695	772	153	37	64	360	1216	99	136	48	209	296	322	619	113	291	29	9	281	76	-107	+8	-7	+71	+86	5.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	120	24	6	10	56	189	15	21	7	209	296	324	620	115	291	29	9	281	76	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Pirates Gold · 87 PAwOBA .329 → .233 (−96)K% 20.7% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.69%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	25.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.24%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	12.01%
HBP% /PA	8.05%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	5.60%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.003	×0.995	15.08%
Doubles /BIP	4.44%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.003	×0.995	2.66%
Triples /BIP	2.22%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.003	×0.995	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .329 → .233; ISO .063 → .042; BABIP .283 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Pirates Black · 110 PAwOBA .366 → .243 (−124)K% 34.5% → 42.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.55%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	42.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.45%	÷0.987	×0.700	—	×1.008	11.04%
HBP% /PA	6.36%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.49%
Singles /BIP	21.28%	÷1.004	×0.680	—	×1.008	14.51%
Doubles /BIP	19.15%	÷0.972	×0.600	—	×1.008	11.91%
Triples /BIP	4.26%	÷1.019	×0.600	—	×1.008	2.52%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.931	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 104, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .366 → .243; ISO .153 → .092; BABIP .438 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.4	2,254	35	74	212	293	326	+40	+28	4.6	4.2
/162	664	10	22	+11.9	+8.3	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Familia (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	195/282/277	82	288	0	1	30%	8%	63	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Hans Montero 2024 · A	20	36→37	37→45	55	49	172/276/241	69	264	5	18	33%	11%	53	-2.1	182/260/285	103	297	10	17	39%	8%	56	-1.9	173/254/287	113	278	12	22	39%	9%	52	-1.5
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/249/256	81	276	5	19	36%	8%	45	-2.7	192/257/267	75	279	5	10	31%	7%	50	-2.3	170/235/212	43	235	3	6	27%	7%	28	-1.2
✕Cutter Coffey 2024 · A	20	38→45	39→45	49→50	44	185/262/271	86	271	7	13	32%	8%	53	-2.1	201/271/317	116	296	12	10	34%	8%	67	-1.1	199/268/315	116	299	12	9	35%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	36→44	40→50	47→50	46	175/264/271	96	263	7	8	34%	10%	55	-2.0	204/267/339	135	290	14	10	33%	7%	70	-0.8	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Cristian Hernández 2024 · A	20	39→48	37→45	53→60	38	187/246/255	68	296	5	17	37%	7%	42	-2.9	213/278/306	93	307	7	28	30%	8%	67	-1.1	217/285/319	102	301	8	34	29%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Heiker Meneses 2011 · A	20	37→47	36→40	54→55	41	179/248/245	66	260	4	18	31%	7%	42	-2.9	225/274/303	78	328	4	17	31%	5%	63	-1.3	236/284/314	78	342	3	18	30%	4%	66	-0.8
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→46	38→45	53→50	43	192/253/278	86	262	5	13	27%	7%	51	-2.3	219/294/329	110	303	9	13	28%	9%	78	-0.3	221/301/335	114	300	11	14	28%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2015 · A	20	42	36→40	54→60	43	195/260/262	67	275	2	19	28%	7%	49	-2.4	203/255/272	69	317	3	11	34%	6%	50	-2.3	184/229/215	32	332	0	4	42%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→40	47→65	40	207/259/281	75	292	5	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	193/262/269	76	307	6	15	36%	7%	53	-2.1	189/270/268	79	286	5	32	33%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→49	35→40	48→60	44	184/266/243	59	279	2	9	32%	8%	49	-2.4	191/294/274	83	293	6	15	33%	11%	68	-1.0	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	41→44	36→50	48→45	43	194/262/264	70	258	3	9	25%	6%	51	-2.2	218/281/363	145	322	16	4	35%	7%	81	-0.1	210/279/360	150	310	18	4	36%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Gilberto Celestino 2019 · A	20	43→53	38→45	52→55	42	209/257/289	80	280	6	12	27%	6%	54	-2.0	226/281/328	102	291	8	8	24%	7%	72	-0.7	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	39	37→50	49→45	46	189/256/259	71	249	5	11	25%	7%	48	-2.5	203/254/307	104	277	9	7	29%	6%	57	-1.8	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Jose Paez 2014 · A	20	43	37→45	50	39	203/249/286	83	278	4	11	27%	5%	50	-2.3	205/256/282	77	317	4	10	34%	6%	52	-2.2	192/248/248	56	315	4	11	38%	6%	38	-0.6
✕Alexander Benua 2024 · A	20	39	36→40	51→55	40	184/255/252	68	275	4	16	32%	6%	47	-2.6	198/262/288	90	311	7	11	36%	7%	57	-1.8	183/250/274	91	292	7	12	37%	7%	49	-0.9
✕Wander Ramos 2010 · A	20	40	37→45	51→45	48	186/286/260	73	283	4	16	32%	10%	61	-1.5	201/265/316	115	302	11	10	35%	7%	64	-1.3	198/259/358	160	288	18	7	37%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	39→33	37→45	54→55	39	187/245/260	73	279	3	11	32%	6%	43	-2.8	186/260/317	131	336	16	16	46%	8%	63	-1.3	173/250/304	131	303	16	19	45%	8%	53	-1.4

Victor Familia

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps