Victor Familia — OGILVIE

Victor FamiliaC DSL Pirates Gold

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 196 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 38 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.147 / .237 / .176

PA38

HR0

K%32

BB%8

BABIP227

ISO29

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.3M
Totals		$11M		$27M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Pirates Black	—	110	91	14	6	1	0	11	56	7	1	3	154	294	242	535	88	389	51	10	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Pirates Black	—	110	85	21	9	2	0	17	38	7	1	3	247	413	400	813	153	438	35	15	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	PIT	—	57	46	7	0	1	0	6	17	3	3	0	152	291	196	487	43	233	30	11	220	27	-5	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
YTD	19	ROK	PIT	—	57	42	8	0	1	0	10	12	3	3	0	190	382	238	620	48	258	21	18	301	88	-1	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.3
ROS	19	ROK	PIT	0%	38	34	5	1	0	0	3	12	1	1	0	147	237	176	413	29	282	32	8	253	51	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
ROS	19	MLB	PIT	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		281	—	—	234	37	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	PIT	—	57	47	7	0	1	0	6	17	3	3	0	149	291	191	482	43	226	30	11	220	27	-5	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
TOT	19	ROK	PIT	—	95	80	12	1	1	0	9	29	4	4	0	150	269	188	456	38	231	31	9	233	37	-7	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	PIT	34%	183	161	32	6	2	2	16	57	4	3	1	199	287	298	585	99	285	31	9	264	60	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2028	21	MLB	PIT	48%	319	282	56	10	3	4	27	97	7	4	1	199	285	298	583	99	287	30	8	273	67	-12	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.3
2029	22	MLB	PIT	54%	419	371	77	14	4	7	36	125	9	6	1	208	293	323	617	116	288	30	9	279	71	-13	+1	+0	+7	+12	0.7
2030	23	MLB	PIT	57%	485	429	89	16	4	8	42	143	11	7	2	207	295	319	614	112	289	29	9	283	75	-14	+1	+0	+9	+14	0.9
2031	24	MLB	PIT	57%	520	459	97	18	5	9	45	153	11	7	2	211	297	331	628	120	290	29	9	285	76	-14	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2032	25	MLB	PIT	57%	520	458	98	18	5	10	45	153	12	7	2	214	301	341	642	127	290	29	9	287	78	-13	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2033	26	MLB	PIT	56%	520	458	98	18	5	10	45	153	12	7	2	214	301	341	642	127	290	29	9	288	78	-13	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2034	27	MLB	PIT	55%	520	457	98	18	5	10	46	153	12	7	2	214	303	341	644	127	290	29	9	288	79	-13	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2035	28	MLB	PIT	55%	520	458	96	17	4	10	46	154	11	7	2	210	297	330	627	120	289	30	9	287	78	-13	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.1
2036	29	MLB	PIT	53%	520	458	95	17	4	10	46	155	11	6	1	207	295	328	623	120	288	30	9	285	76	-14	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.0
2037	30	MLB	PIT	53%	520	457	94	17	4	9	47	156	11	6	1	206	295	319	615	114	287	30	9	282	74	-15	+1	-2	+9	+15	0.8
2027	20	MLB	PIT	34%	63	57	12	2	1	1	5	20	1	1	0	211	286	333	619	123	284	32	8	246	47	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	PIT	48%	155	137	27	5	1	2	13	47	4	2	0	197	286	292	578	95	285	30	8	255	54	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	PIT	54%	227	200	42	8	2	4	20	68	5	3	1	210	298	330	628	120	287	30	9	261	58	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2030	23	MLB	PIT	57%	275	243	50	9	2	5	24	81	6	4	1	206	293	321	614	115	288	29	9	266	61	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2031	24	MLB	PIT	57%	294	261	55	10	3	5	25	87	6	4	1	211	295	330	624	119	289	30	9	268	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2032	25	MLB	PIT	57%	294	260	55	10	3	5	25	86	7	4	1	212	298	331	629	119	289	29	9	270	64	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2033	26	MLB	PIT	56%	294	259	56	10	3	6	26	86	7	4	1	216	305	347	652	131	289	29	9	271	65	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2034	27	MLB	PIT	55%	288	255	55	10	3	6	25	85	6	4	1	216	301	349	650	133	288	30	9	271	65	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2035	28	MLB	PIT	55%	285	252	51	9	2	5	25	84	6	4	1	202	290	313	603	111	288	29	9	270	65	-11	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.2
2036	29	MLB	PIT	53%	278	245	50	9	2	5	25	83	6	3	1	204	293	318	612	114	287	30	9	268	63	-12	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.1
2037	30	MLB	PIT	53%	274	241	49	9	2	5	25	82	6	3	1	203	294	320	614	116	286	30	9	265	61	-12	+0	-1	+5	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2727	2411	502	91	24	49	238	809	60	36	9	208	295	327	622	119	290	30	9	267	62	-117	+4	-2	+49	+77	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	121	22	6	12	57	193	14	9	2	210	297	332	629	122	293	30	9	267	62	-28	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	5194	4573	949	176	46	89	455	1567	119	69	20	208	296	325	620	117	292	30	9	282	74	-152	+6	-4	+93	+147	9.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	119	22	6	11	57	196	15	9	3	208	297	325	622	117	293	30	9	282	74	-19	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Pirates Black	—	110	85	21	9	2	0	17	38	7	1	3	247	413	400	813	153	438	35	15	371	142	+5	-1	—	—	+3	0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,820	49	38	209	293	327	+50	+28	5.2	4.7
	/162	664	12	9	209	293	327	+11.9	+6.6	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Familia (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	150/269/188	38	231	0	4	31%	9%	37	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	40	38→55	49→45	43	195/258/270	75	266	5	11	28%	7%	44	-2.1	205/253/318	113	280	11	7	30%	5%	55	-1.4	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	42→41	39→55	47→50	50	201/285/293	92	282	6	8	29%	10%	63	-0.9	187/257/303	116	284	10	9	35%	7%	53	-1.5	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Jose Caguana 2021 · A	19	41	40→55	49→45	35	194/247/288	94	316	8	8	39%	6%	44	-2.1	195/255/292	97	405	9	8	50%	7%	49	-1.8	178/254/336	158	260	23	7	39%	8%	60	-0.4
✕Rey Duran 2008 · A	19	41	39→50	49→40	44	194/268/278	84	288	7	6	33%	8%	51	-1.7	201/256/316	115	261	13	5	27%	6%	56	-1.3	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Ricardo Cova 2023 · A	19	44	39→50	50→55	35	205/259/286	81	318	6	10	36%	5%	49	-1.8	217/276/316	99	313	9	18	32%	6%	64	-0.8	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	41→37	38→45	47→55	49	191/290/273	82	290	5	8	32%	11%	61	-1.0	192/289/292	100	287	9	14	33%	10%	65	-0.7	175/282/297	122	265	13	26	36%	10%	62	-0.6
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	287	5	7	30%	8%	53	-1.5	193/290/269	76	317	6	5	37%	9%	60	-1.0	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→41	40→55	51→50	44	201/267/302	101	282	7	12	30%	7%	56	-1.3	197/248/287	90	281	7	11	31%	5%	44	-2.1	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→42	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	31	-3.0	206/271/341	135	300	13	8	33%	8%	69	-0.4	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	42→50	40→50	46→45	39	203/253/296	93	299	7	7	33%	6%	49	-1.8	219/263/330	111	288	12	6	27%	4%	62	-0.9	236/292/359	123	281	13	0	20%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Rodolfo Castro 2018 · A	19	41→40	42→55	47→50	39	203/257/313	110	287	8	5	31%	6%	55	-1.4	192/232/317	125	275	12	5	34%	4%	45	-2.1	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Tyler Marlette 2012 · A	19	41→42	37→50	49→45	33	192/232/264	72	306	4	6	37%	4%	30	-3.1	226/260/334	108	310	11	7	29%	4%	61	-1.0	234/278/364	130	304	14	7	27%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2021 · A	19	45→47	37→50	49→50	43	209/275/287	78	306	4	12	31%	8%	56	-1.3	231/269/358	127	281	13	15	22%	4%	72	-0.2	227/264/372	145	291	16	11	28%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Franklin Barreto 2015 · A	19	43→48	41→55	49→50	37	205/257/317	111	296	7	9	32%	5%	56	-1.3	231/268/343	112	307	10	14	27%	4%	67	-0.5	217/273/384	168	316	20	13	36%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2008 · A	19	37	38→45	46→50	37	179/239/262	83	292	6	10	38%	7%	34	-2.8	183/273/286	103	276	11	8	35%	9%	57	-1.2	165/268/271	106	240	13	6	34%	10%	50	-0.6
✕Geoandry Montilla 2015 · A	19	41	35→45	48→50	37	191/242/251	60	300	2	7	35%	6%	31	-3.0	207/270/307	100	295	8	8	30%	7%	59	-1.1	193/264/302	109	273	10	9	31%	8%	53	-0.5