Alexander Lugo — OGILVIE

Alexander Lugo P DSL Arizona Red

Age 20 LHP 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 143

ERA5.76

FIP5.76

K%20.3%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%1.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	17	0	20	98	10	17	1	0%	1.2	6.9%	21.7%	-14.7%	1.6%	6.75	6.13	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	17	0	20	98	10	17	1	0%	1.2	6.9%	21.7%	-14.7%	1.6%	6.75	6.13	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	17	0	20	98	10	17	1	0%	1.2	10.2%	17.3%	-7.1%	1.0%	6.75	5.30	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	14	0	19	99	13	21	2	0%	1.3	8.9%	26.5%	-17.6%	2.5%	7.23	7.09	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	14	0	19	99	13	21	2	0%	1.3	8.9%	26.5%	-17.6%	2.5%	7.23	7.09	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	14	0	19	99	13	21	2	0%	1.3	13.1%	21.2%	-8.1%	2.0%	7.23	6.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	ARI	10	0	11	46	9	9	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	18.6%	1.7%	3.0%	5.76	5.76	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	18	13	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.9%	5.43	5.31	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.9%	5.43	5.31	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.9%	5.43	4.93	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	142	20	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.9%	5.43	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		31	0	39	197	16	48	4	0%	1.2	7.9%	24.1%	-16.2%	2.1%	6.98	6.61	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	0	200	1019	81	246	21	0%	1.2	7.9%	24.1%	-16.2%	2.1%	6.98	6.61	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Lugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.76	20.3%	18.6%	3.0%	—	5.31	21.1%	5.3%	20	-0.45	—	—	—
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	88
Peter Bonilla L 2024 · 4.63 FIP	19	SU	4.63	20.9%	18.3%	1.8%	.250	6.24	19.5%	-5.4%	51	+1.61	4.27	134	82
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	82
Jayvien Sandridge L 2019 · 6.78 FIP	20	SU	6.78	19.0%	23.9%	4.1%	.324	3.61	27.9%	5.2%	41	-3.17	3.25	223	81
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	81
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	81
Boone Logan L 2006 · 4.69 FIP	21	SU	4.69	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	.302	4.14	17.2%	10.5%	110	-0.55	2.58	442	81
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	80
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	80
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	79
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	77
Luis Flores L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	20	SU	6.27	26.2%	26.3%	3.7%	.395	5.39	20.7%	-3.6%	82	-0.88	4.25	130	77
Jordan Norberto L 2010 · 6.32 FIP	23	SU	6.32	16.0%	22.3%	3.2%	.236	3.89	21.7%	12.3%	52	-2.43	3.89	117	76
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	76
Deyer Zapata L 2024 · 5.79 FIP	20	SU	5.79	18.0%	15.3%	4.1%	.319	3.77	16.2%	7.0%	15	-2.02	3.77	130	76
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	76
Daniel Juarez L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	20	SU	4.75	25.6%	19.2%	2.5%	.170	4.09	21.8%	9.3%	131	-0.66	3.68	221	76
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	75
Edison Suriel L 2018 · 6.39 FIP	19	SU	6.39	16.8%	20.5%	3.8%	.341	2.16	21.4%	14.6%	17	-4.23	2.16	159	75
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	75