Grant Manning — OGILVIE

Grant Manning P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%22.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	6	66	284	83	35	4	23%	2.5	21.7%	14.5%	7.3%	1.8%	4.39	4.09	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	6	66	284	83	35	4	23%	2.5	21.7%	14.5%	7.3%	1.8%	4.39	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	WSH	23	6	59	249	73	29	3	26%	2.6	29.3%	11.6%	17.7%	1.2%	3.94	2.76	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	WSH	3	0	6	35	10	6	1	0%	2.1	28.6%	17.1%	11.4%	2.9%	8.53	4.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	271	63	31	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.62	4.61	-0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	60	0	63	267	62	31	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.62	4.63	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	WSH	26	0	27	114	26	13	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.62	4.61	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	38	0	40	169	39	19	5	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.62	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	284	66	33	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.62	4.24	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	98	27	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.62	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		26	6	66	284	62	41	5	23%	2.5	21.7%	14.5%	7.3%	1.8%	4.39	4.09	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	18	200	865	188	125	16	23%	2.5	21.7%	14.5%	7.3%	1.8%	4.39	4.09	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Manning (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	22.9%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.62	23.2%	11.7%	128	-0.05	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	82
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	80
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	80
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	80
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	79
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	79
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	79
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	25	SW	5.30	21.4%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	78
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	78
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	78
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	77
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	77
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	77
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	77
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	77
Kyle Bischoff R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	24	SU	5.26	23.6%	11.8%	4.8%	.240	3.86	21.7%	8.5%	139	-1.40	3.21	161	77
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	76
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	76
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	23.1%	11.6%	1.16	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33