Grant Manning
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 225 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%23.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 5 | 55 | 231 | 68 | 26 | 3 | 23% | 2.5 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 3.58 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | WSH | 37 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 94 | 394 | 106 | 41 | 8 | — | — | 26.9% | 10.5% | 16.4% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 4.06 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 37 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 36 | 0 | 38 | 161 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 68 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 3.99 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 79 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 22 | 5 | 55 | 231 | 50 | 31 | 4 | 23% | 2.5 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 3.58 | 3.87 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 18 | 200 | 835 | 182 | 111 | 14 | 23% | 2.5 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 3.58 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Manning (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.36 | 23.5% | 14.0% | 114 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 82 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 80 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.65 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 99 | +0.39 | 3.81 | 233 | 80 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 80 |
| Dylan King R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 26.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 121 | 80 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 80 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 80 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2029 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 78 |
| Brad Bass R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 247 | 78 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .284 | 3.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 125 | -0.65 | 3.08 | 201 | 78 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .283 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 124 | -0.19 | 3.47 | 171 | 78 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.72 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +1.99 | 3.73 | 191 | 77 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 77 |
| Miguel Sánchez R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.68 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.77 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 83 | +1.09 | 2.54 | 309 | 77 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 77 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 77 |
| Jake Curtis R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.34 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 105 | 77 |
| Trent Harris R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.45 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 87 | +0.62 | 3.45 | 163 | 77 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.03 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .275 | 8.37 | 16.9% | -3.1% | 25 | +4.34 | 4.03 | 161 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 38 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 1.17 | 4.34 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |