Edwardo Melendez

Edwardo Melendez P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 177 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 166158vR 150

ERA6.99

FIP6.99

K%14.7%

BB%25.3%

K-BB%-10.6%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	14	3	30	139	33	20	0	21%	2.2	16.1%	18.0%	-1.8%	0.0%	7.71	4.01	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	14	3	30	139	33	20	0	21%	2.2	16.1%	18.0%	-1.8%	0.0%	7.71	4.01	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	14	3	30	139	33	20	0	21%	2.2	23.7%	14.4%	9.4%	0.0%	7.71	2.90	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	61	282	63	54	3	44%	3.4	15.4%	23.6%	-8.2%	1.6%	5.46	5.69	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	61	282	63	54	3	44%	3.4	15.4%	23.6%	-8.2%	1.6%	5.46	5.69	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	8	61	282	63	54	3	44%	3.4	22.3%	19.1%	3.2%	1.1%	5.46	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	31	4	72	307	82	47	6	13%	2.3	20.2%	17.2%	3.0%	1.9%	2.76	4.64	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	31	4	72	307	82	47	6	13%	2.3	20.2%	17.2%	3.0%	1.9%	2.76	4.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CHC	26	4	62	267	73	39	4	15%	2.4	27.3%	14.6%	12.7%	1.5%	2.92	3.46	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CHC	5	0	10	40	9	8	2	0%	2.0	22.5%	20.0%	2.5%	5.0%	1.80	6.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CHC	69	0	73	307	52	66	9	0%	1.1	16.8%	21.4%	-4.7%	2.8%	6.48	6.32	-1.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	CHC	71	0	75	315	57	60	9	0%	1.1	17.9%	19.0%	-1.0%	2.8%	6.07	5.90	-1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CHC	72	0	76	319	59	55	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	17.4%	1.2%	2.8%	5.78	5.64	-0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	CHC	72	0	76	319	60	55	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	17.1%	1.8%	2.8%	5.65	5.58	-0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	CHC	71	0	74	314	59	54	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	17.2%	1.7%	2.8%	5.63	5.62	-0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	CHC	69	0	72	305	57	53	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	17.3%	1.4%	2.9%	5.67	5.70	-0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	CHC	66	0	69	291	54	51	9	0%	1.0	18.5%	17.6%	1.0%	3.1%	5.77	5.84	-1.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	65	274	50	49	9	0%	1.0	18.2%	17.9%	0.3%	3.3%	5.92	6.01	-1.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	CHC	34	0	36	152	25	33	4	0%	1.1	16.8%	21.4%	-4.7%	2.8%	6.48	6.32	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	CHC	50	0	52	220	39	42	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	19.0%	-1.0%	2.8%	6.07	5.90	-0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	CHC	58	0	61	258	48	45	7	0%	1.1	18.6%	17.4%	1.2%	2.8%	5.78	5.64	-0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	CHC	63	0	66	279	53	48	8	0%	1.0	18.9%	17.1%	1.8%	2.8%	5.65	5.58	-0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	CHC	64	0	67	283	53	49	8	0%	1.0	18.9%	17.2%	1.7%	2.8%	5.63	5.62	-0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	CHC	63	0	66	279	52	48	8	0%	1.0	18.8%	17.3%	1.4%	2.9%	5.67	5.70	-0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	CHC	61	0	64	270	50	47	8	0%	1.0	18.5%	17.6%	1.0%	3.1%	5.77	5.84	-0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	CHC	58	0	61	258	47	46	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	17.9%	0.3%	3.3%	5.92	6.01	-1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		451	0	474	2000	369	358	58	0%	1.1	18.4%	17.9%	0.6%	2.9%	5.83	5.41	-4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	151	24	0%	1.1	18.4%	17.9%	0.6%	2.9%	5.83	5.41	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		63	15	163	728	128	145	11	24%	2.6	17.6%	19.9%	-2.3%	1.5%	4.69	4.93	-8.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	18	200	893	157	177	13	24%	2.6	17.6%	19.9%	-2.3%	1.5%	4.69	4.93	-2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwardo Melendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.99	14.7%	25.3%	2.8%	—	5.95	17.8%	-1.5%	223	-1.04	—	—	—
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	88
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	84
Alexis Liebano R 2023 · 6.15 FIP	20	SU	6.15	11.8%	24.2%	1.8%	.312	6.00	17.7%	3.8%	112	-0.15	4.80	142	81
Dominic Hambley R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	20	SW	5.81	16.4%	20.4%	2.8%	.318	4.66	17.9%	-4.3%	73	-1.15	4.44	131	81
Miguel Mora R 2023 · 6.90 FIP	21	SU	6.90	10.5%	26.8%	2.4%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	151	79
Biembenido Brito R 2023 · 5.98 FIP	20	SU	5.98	15.0%	24.8%	1.8%	.325	5.12	20.2%	2.1%	65	-0.86	3.58	130	78
Darlin Pinales R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	17.0%	27.6%	2.8%	.350	4.44	21.7%	1.1%	117	-2.24	3.61	214	78
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	78
Leomar Rosario R 2023 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	14.5%	26.7%	1.4%	.310	5.64	21.1%	-5.2%	90	-0.36	4.95	134	77
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	77
Ismael Maldonado R 2018 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	15.7%	18.2%	3.4%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	5.87	119	76
Elian Rodriguez R 2019 · 7.63 FIP	22	SW	7.63	14.2%	25.0%	4.7%	.388	5.60	18.3%	-3.6%	40	-2.03	5.60	109	76
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	20	SW	6.05	16.0%	21.7%	2.8%	.283	6.53	21.9%	9.4%	148	+0.48	4.03	272	75
Jeffrey Rosa R 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SU	6.08	14.2%	24.3%	2.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	123	75
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	75
Juan Soto R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	8.9%	24.0%	2.3%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.06	102	75
Diogenes Almengo R 2016 · 6.34 FIP	21	SW	6.34	8.2%	18.3%	2.9%	.235	4.69	21.0%	5.1%	70	-1.65	2.12	242	74
Eury Rosado R 2023 · 6.56 FIP	22	SW	6.56	17.8%	18.2%	4.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	109	73
Johan Otanez R 2022 · 6.54 FIP	20	SW	6.54	13.4%	21.1%	3.5%	.312	4.48	19.7%	3.0%	52	-2.06	4.31	174	72
Nick Howard R 2015 · 5.89 FIP	22	SW	5.89	12.6%	30.4%	0.0%	.315	5.56	12.9%	-6.0%	73	-0.33	4.72	181	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	70	18.0%	18.7%	1.12	5.96
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59