Johan Otanez — OGILVIE

Johan Otanez P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 168 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%21.3%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	9	43	197	23	28	2	82%	3.9	7.9%	17.8%	-9.8%	1.4%	5.02	5.46	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	9	43	197	23	28	2	82%	3.9	11.7%	14.2%	-2.5%	1.0%	5.02	4.59	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	3	18	95	23	21	0	27%	1.7	16.5%	27.6%	-11.2%	0.0%	5.89	5.21	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	11	3	18	95	23	21	0	27%	1.7	24.2%	22.1%	2.1%	0.0%	5.89	4.03	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	3	38	178	35	30	4	27%	3.4	13.4%	21.1%	-7.7%	3.5%	5.50	6.54	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	11	3	38	178	35	30	4	27%	3.4	19.7%	16.9%	2.8%	2.2%	5.50	5.01	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	7	53	10	16	1	10%	0.7	18.9%	30.2%	-11.3%	1.9%	18.90	6.37	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	7	53	10	16	1	10%	0.7	18.9%	30.2%	-11.3%	1.9%	18.90	6.37	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	7	53	10	16	1	10%	0.7	18.9%	30.2%	-11.3%	1.9%	18.90	9.25	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	131	37	24	0	0%	1.2	18.5%	25.7%	-7.2%	0.0%	3.45	4.79	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	131	37	24	0	0%	1.2	18.5%	25.7%	-7.2%	0.0%	3.45	4.79	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	29	131	37	24	0	0%	1.2	28.2%	18.3%	9.9%	0.0%	3.45	3.03	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	41	181	47	26	3	0%	1.2	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	2.6%	2.61	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	41	181	47	26	3	0%	1.2	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	2.6%	2.61	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	41	181	47	26	3	0%	1.2	26.0%	14.4%	11.6%	1.7%	2.61	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	19	0	23	110	26	19	1	0%	1.2	17.1%	20.8%	-3.6%	1.2%	5.09	4.94	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	19	0	23	110	26	19	1	0%	1.2	17.1%	20.8%	-3.6%	1.2%	5.09	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	WSH	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0%	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	24	A RAW	WSH	18	0	22	108	25	19	1	0%	1.2	23.1%	17.6%	5.6%	0.9%	5.24	3.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	36	0	38	159	35	20	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.86	4.79	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	15	0	16	68	15	8	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.86	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	15	8	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.86	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	99	25	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.86	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		119	16	199	945	145	192	16	13%	1.7	15.3%	20.3%	-5.0%	1.7%	4.94	5.31	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	16	200	951	146	194	16	13%	1.7	15.3%	20.3%	-5.0%	1.7%	4.94	5.31	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Otanez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	21.3%	13.9%	2.9%	—	4.79	21.9%	9.5%	38	-0.24	—	—	—
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	86
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	85
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	85
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	85
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	85
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	85
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	84
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	21.3%	14.7%	3.6%	.302	3.83	22.2%	5.5%	65	-1.29	2.53	114	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	83
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.7%	12.9%	1.12	4.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22