Johan Otanez
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 168 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%22.7%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 9 | 43 | 197 | 23 | 28 | 2 | 82% | 3.9 | 7.9% | 17.8% | -9.8% | 1.4% | 5.02 | 5.46 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 9 | 43 | 197 | 23 | 28 | 2 | 82% | 3.9 | 11.7% | 14.2% | -2.5% | 1.0% | 5.02 | 4.59 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 11 | 3 | 18 | 95 | 23 | 21 | 0 | 27% | 1.7 | 16.5% | 27.6% | -11.2% | 0.0% | 5.89 | 5.21 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 11 | 3 | 18 | 95 | 23 | 21 | 0 | 27% | 1.7 | 24.2% | 22.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 5.89 | 4.03 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 11 | 3 | 38 | 178 | 35 | 30 | 4 | 27% | 3.4 | 13.4% | 21.1% | -7.7% | 3.8% | 5.50 | 6.74 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 11 | 3 | 38 | 178 | 35 | 30 | 4 | 27% | 3.4 | 19.7% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 5.50 | 5.01 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 1 | 7 | 53 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 10% | 0.7 | 18.9% | 30.2% | -11.3% | 1.9% | 18.90 | 6.37 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 1 | 7 | 53 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 10% | 0.7 | 18.9% | 30.2% | -11.3% | 1.9% | 18.90 | 9.25 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 29 | 131 | 37 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.5% | 25.7% | -7.2% | 0.0% | 3.45 | 4.79 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 29 | 131 | 37 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.2% | 18.3% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 3.45 | 3.03 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 41 | 181 | 47 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 2.61 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 41 | 181 | 47 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.0% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 1.7% | 2.61 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 19 | 0 | 23 | 110 | 26 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.1% | 20.8% | -3.6% | 1.2% | 5.09 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.7% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.48 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 40 | 182 | 42 | 27 | 3 | — | — | 23.3% | 14.6% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 4.83 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.98 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 94 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 16 | 199 | 945 | 145 | 192 | 17 | 13% | 1.7 | 15.3% | 20.3% | -5.0% | 1.8% | 4.94 | 5.34 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 16 | 200 | 951 | 146 | 194 | 17 | 13% | 1.7 | 15.3% | 20.3% | -5.0% | 1.8% | 4.94 | 5.34 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Johan Otanez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.36 | 23.1% | 13.3% | 20 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 90 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 88 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 87 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 87 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 86 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 85 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 85 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 85 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 85 |
| Zach Franklin R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 84 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 84 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 84 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 84 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 83 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 83 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 83 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 83 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 83 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 83 |