Mathias Sato — OGILVIE

Mathias Sato P DSL Mariners

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 163 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%21.1%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	16	1	26	132	27	18	1	6%	1.6	13.9%	17.0%	-3.1%	1.0%	5.54	4.66	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	16	1	26	132	27	18	1	6%	1.6	13.9%	17.0%	-3.1%	1.0%	5.54	4.66	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	16	1	26	132	27	18	1	6%	1.6	20.5%	13.6%	6.8%	0.8%	5.54	3.60	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	12	8	37	167	39	27	3	67%	3.1	15.9%	20.2%	-4.3%	2.7%	6.14	5.79	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	12	8	37	167	39	27	3	67%	3.1	15.9%	20.2%	-4.3%	2.7%	6.14	5.79	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	12	8	37	167	39	27	3	67%	3.1	23.4%	16.2%	7.2%	1.8%	6.14	4.25	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	3	0	3	19	3	2	1	0%	1.0	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	5.3%	18.00	5.99	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	3	0	3	19	3	2	1	0%	1.0	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	5.3%	18.00	5.99	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	3	0	3	19	3	2	1	0%	1.0	15.8%	10.5%	5.3%	5.3%	18.00	7.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SEA	19	0	20	84	18	14	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	16.3%	4.7%	3.0%	5.41	5.41	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SEA	33	0	35	146	32	21	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	14.1%	7.6%	2.9%	5.15	5.04	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	SEA	16	0	17	72	16	10	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.1%	7.6%	2.9%	5.15	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	72	16	10	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.1%	7.6%	2.9%	5.15	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	118	24	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.1%	7.6%	2.9%	5.15	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		31	9	66	318	48	58	7	29%	2.1	15.1%	18.3%	-3.3%	2.2%	6.44	5.33	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	27	200	969	146	177	21	29%	2.1	15.1%	18.3%	-3.3%	2.2%	6.44	5.33	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mathias Sato (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	21.1%	16.3%	3.0%	—	5.04	21.7%	7.6%	35	-0.37	—	—	—
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	90
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	88
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	85
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	84
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	83
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	81
Nicolas Cruz R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	20	SW	4.84	19.2%	16.1%	2.4%	.437	3.32	20.4%	11.4%	117	-1.52	3.01	194	80
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	80
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	80
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	80
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	80
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	80
Cre Finfrock R 2018 · 4.27 FIP	22	SW	4.27	17.9%	16.5%	1.1%	.286	4.63	23.0%	11.3%	38	+0.36	4.27	103	80
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	79
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	79
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	79
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	79
Sunayro Martina R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	20	SW	4.57	16.3%	16.9%	1.3%	.305	5.69	13.9%	-4.9%	71	+1.12	4.57	118	79
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.5%	14.9%	1.14	5.25
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88