Mitch Mueller — OGILVIE

Mitch Mueller P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%23.5%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	5	0	11	46	14	2	0	0%	2.3	30.4%	4.3%	26.1%	0.0%	1.59	1.08	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	5	0	11	46	14	2	0	0%	2.3	30.4%	4.3%	26.1%	0.0%	1.59	1.08	—
2025	23	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	5	0	11	46	14	2	0	0%	2.3	30.4%	4.3%	26.1%	0.0%	1.59	1.16	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	43	0	62	256	79	21	8	0%	1.4	23.8%	9.4%	14.5%	3.8%	4.52	4.39	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	43	0	62	256	79	21	8	0%	1.4	23.8%	9.4%	14.5%	3.8%	4.52	4.39	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	MIN	17	0	20	90	25	9	1	0%	1.2	27.8%	10.0%	17.8%	1.1%	5.85	2.63	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	MIN	12	0	20	76	30	4	3	0%	1.7	39.5%	5.3%	34.2%	3.9%	3.54	2.60	—
2026	24	AA RAW	MIN	14	0	21	90	24	8	4	0%	1.5	26.7%	8.9%	17.8%	4.4%	4.22	4.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	58	0	61	258	62	23	8	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.0%	14.9%	3.0%	4.30	4.27	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	58	0	61	258	62	23	8	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	3.0%	4.27	4.25	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	57	0	60	255	61	23	8	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	3.1%	4.28	4.29	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	26	0	27	114	27	10	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.0%	14.9%	3.0%	4.30	4.27	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	39	0	41	173	42	16	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	3.0%	4.27	4.25	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	45	0	47	198	48	18	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	3.1%	4.28	4.29	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	0	115	484	116	44	15	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	3.0%	4.28	3.89	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	77	26	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	3.0%	4.28	3.89	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		48	0	73	302	75	26	10	0%	1.5	24.8%	8.6%	16.2%	3.3%	4.07	3.88	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	827	206	71	27	0%	1.5	24.8%	8.6%	16.2%	3.3%	4.07	3.88	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Mueller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	23.5%	9.3%	3.1%	—	4.27	24.0%	15.0%	183	-0.07	—	—	—
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	91
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	90
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	90
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	89
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	88
Tyler Schoff R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	25.2%	8.7%	3.0%	.315	4.26	16.1%	6.4%	75	+0.57	3.69	190	88
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	88
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	88
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	87
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	86
Dakota Donovan R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	24	SU	3.15	22.2%	8.4%	1.6%	.310	3.55	20.3%	8.9%	95	+0.40	3.15	153	86
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	86
Evan Gates R 2022 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	23.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.175	3.90	21.1%	9.7%	195	-0.14	3.65	300	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	55	23.9%	9.1%	1.18	4.29
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68