Jackson Nove — OGILVIE

Jackson Nove P Stockton Ports

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.4 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%22.9%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	33	9	83	355	109	28	9	27%	2.5	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.01	4.13	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	33	9	83	355	109	28	9	27%	2.5	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.01	4.13	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	OAK	29	5	63	269	94	19	7	17%	2.2	34.9%	7.1%	27.9%	2.6%	3.98	2.47	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	OAK	4	4	20	86	15	9	2	100%	4.9	17.4%	10.5%	7.0%	2.3%	4.12	4.23	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	79	0	83	352	82	31	10	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.8%	14.6%	3.0%	4.29	4.25	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	80	0	84	356	84	30	11	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	3.0%	4.23	4.19	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	80	0	84	356	84	30	11	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	3.0%	4.20	4.17	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	79	0	83	350	83	30	11	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.5%	15.2%	3.0%	4.21	4.21	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	77	0	80	340	80	29	11	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.1%	4.26	4.30	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	73	0	77	325	82	26	11	0%	1.1	25.3%	8.1%	17.2%	3.3%	4.20	4.16	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	69	0	72	305	76	26	11	0%	1.0	24.9%	8.4%	16.6%	3.5%	4.28	4.34	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	34	0	36	152	35	13	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.8%	14.6%	2.9%	4.25	4.21	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	53	0	56	236	56	20	7	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.9%	4.19	4.15	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	64	0	67	283	67	24	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	2.9%	4.16	4.13	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	68	0	71	300	71	25	9	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.5%	15.2%	2.9%	4.17	4.17	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	69	0	72	304	72	26	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.0%	4.22	4.26	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	67	0	70	296	75	24	9	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.1%	17.2%	3.2%	4.16	4.12	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	64	0	67	283	71	24	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	8.4%	16.6%	3.4%	4.23	4.29	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		416	0	437	1846	444	156	56	0%	1.1	24.1%	8.4%	15.6%	3.0%	4.19	3.81	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	71	26	0%	1.1	24.1%	8.4%	15.6%	3.0%	4.19	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		33	9	83	355	81	33	12	27%	2.5	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.01	4.13	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	22	200	855	195	79	28	27%	2.5	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.01	4.13	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Nove (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.9%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.20	23.5%	15.0%	252	-0.17	—	—	—
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	80
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	79
Adrian Gusman L 2015 · 3.41 FIP	23	SW	3.41	16.5%	6.6%	1.6%	.280	3.68	15.0%	7.2%	63	+0.27	2.94	141	77
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	77
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	76
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	76
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	74
Jordan Fowler L 2022 · 4.98 FIP	23	SW	4.98	17.0%	5.8%	4.7%	.276	4.08	13.2%	5.3%	70	-0.90	4.08	124	74
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	74
Austin Drury L 2021 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	19.1%	8.7%	4.0%	.275	5.22	12.9%	-6.9%	37	+0.46	2.54	187	73
Jeffrey Springs L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	21.0%	10.1%	3.2%	.265	3.59	25.7%	16.0%	233	-0.78	1.36	898	73
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	73
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	73
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	72
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	72
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	72
Brandon Walter L 2019 · 3.51 FIP	22	SU	3.51	19.2%	7.2%	2.0%	.270	2.89	27.7%	23.0%	139	-0.62	2.85	391	72
Jake Drehoff L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	16.0%	5.9%	2.6%	.326	4.83	17.8%	6.8%	81	+0.88	3.95	153	72
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	436	72
David Oca L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	23	SU	3.21	19.4%	7.0%	1.6%	.422	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	168	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	23.9%	8.5%	1.20	4.24
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46