J.T. Etheridge — OGILVIE

J.T. Etheridge P Tampa Tarpons

+0.2 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.3 · 2028

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.7%

IP35

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2028

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	23	A	Tampa Tarpons	9	5	41	186	56	23	2	21.6%	14.9%	1.6%	5.53	4.04	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	NYY	35	—	35	146	33	15	4	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	NYY	35	—	35	148	34	14	4	23.3%	9.6%	2.9%	4.36	4.32	+0.2
2028	26	MLB	NYY	35	—	35	148	35	14	4	23.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.33	4.30	+0.3
2029	27	MLB	NYY	35	—	35	147	34	14	4	23.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.32	4.31	+0.3
2030	28	MLB	NYY	34	—	34	144	34	14	4	23.5%	9.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.34	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	NYY	33	—	33	141	33	14	4	23.4%	9.7%	3.0%	4.36	4.38	+0.2
2032	30	MLB	NYY	32	—	32	137	32	13	4	23.2%	9.8%	3.1%	4.41	4.45	+0.2
2033	31	MLB	NYY	31	—	31	132	30	13	4	22.9%	9.9%	3.1%	4.48	4.52	+0.2
2034	32	MLB	NYY	30	—	30	127	29	13	4	22.6%	10.1%	3.2%	4.56	4.61	+0.1
2035	33	MLB	NYY	29	—	29	121	27	12	4	22.3%	10.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			9	5	41	186	40	28	3	21.6%	14.9%	1.6%	5.53	4.04	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—			44	25	200	915	197	138	15	21.6%	14.9%	1.6%	5.53	4.04	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.T. Etheridge (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.31	23.4%	13.9%	105	-0.12	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	93
Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	93
Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	92
Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	92
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	90
Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	89
Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	25	SU	3.49	22.4%	10.2%	1.8%	.330	4.95	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.49	140	89
Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.53	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.08	3.01	214	89
Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	23.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.98	3.54	156	89
Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.51	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.09	3.51	103	89
Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.11	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.20	4.01	142	88
Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	24	SU	3.48	23.4%	11.9%	1.6%	.316	4.40	23.0%	9.5%	109	+0.92	3.48	142	88
Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	4.34	19.8%	6.9%	128	+0.14	3.89	176	87
Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.50	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.14	2.78	181	87
Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	86
Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	86
Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	25	SU	4.38	19.1%	8.1%	3.4%	.275	4.54	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.16	4.12	230	86
Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	21.3%	7.5%	3.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	100	86
Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	21.4%	12.4%	2.4%	.296	5.37	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.16	3.60	146	86
Cre Finfrock R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	23.0%	11.7%	3.7%	.278	6.32	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.63	4.27	103	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$0.4M