J.T. Etheridge — OGILVIE

J.T. Etheridge P Tampa Tarpons

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%21.7%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	41	186	56	23	2	56%	4.5	21.6%	14.9%	6.7%	1.7%	5.53	4.08	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	41	186	56	23	2	56%	4.5	21.6%	14.9%	6.7%	1.7%	5.53	4.08	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	5	41	186	56	23	2	56%	4.5	30.1%	12.4%	17.7%	1.1%	5.53	2.68	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	20	13	71	327	105	39	6	65%	3.6	23.8%	14.1%	9.7%	2.4%	5.17	4.19	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	20	13	71	327	105	39	6	65%	3.6	23.8%	14.1%	9.7%	2.4%	5.17	4.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	NYY	20	13	71	327	105	39	6	65%	3.6	32.1%	11.9%	20.2%	1.8%	5.17	2.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	71	299	67	37	9	100%	5.9	22.3%	12.3%	10.0%	2.9%	4.82	4.75	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	71	299	67	36	9	100%	5.9	22.6%	12.0%	10.5%	2.9%	4.73	4.70	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	70	294	66	35	9	100%	5.8	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.71	4.72	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	68	285	64	34	9	100%	6.1	22.5%	12.0%	10.4%	3.1%	4.75	4.79	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	65	273	61	33	9	100%	5.9	22.2%	12.3%	10.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.92	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	30	127	28	16	4	100%	6.0	22.3%	12.3%	10.0%	3.1%	4.93	4.86	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	47	198	45	24	6	100%	5.9	22.6%	12.0%	10.5%	3.1%	4.84	4.81	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	54	228	51	27	7	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	3.2%	4.82	4.83	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	57	241	54	29	8	100%	6.3	22.5%	12.0%	10.4%	3.3%	4.86	4.90	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	57	241	54	30	8	100%	6.3	22.2%	12.3%	10.0%	3.4%	4.97	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	244	1032	231	125	33	100%	6.1	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.88	4.51	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	189	102	27	100%	6.0	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.88	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		29	18	112	513	118	74	11	62%	3.9	23.0%	14.4%	8.6%	2.1%	5.30	4.15	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	32	200	916	210	132	19	62%	3.9	23.0%	14.4%	8.6%	2.1%	5.30	4.15	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.T. Etheridge (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	21.7%	13.7%	2.9%	—	4.72	22.5%	10.4%	211	-0.26	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	87
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	77
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	77
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	75
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	75
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	74
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	74
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	74
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	74
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	74
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	73
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	73
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	61	22.4%	12.2%	1.16	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84