Jason Doktorczyk
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.3 · 2029
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.0%
IP86
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 21 | 12 | 86 | 391 | 88 | 29 | 11 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 5.00 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 3 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 77 | 33 | 12 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 94 | 400 | 85 | 36 | 13 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.24 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 96 | 38 | 14 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 110 | 42 | 16 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 125 | 527 | 118 | 44 | 16 | 22.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 128 | 540 | 121 | 45 | 17 | 22.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 128 | 540 | 120 | 45 | 17 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 117 | 45 | 17 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 112 | 44 | 17 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 107 | 43 | 17 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 102 | 42 | 16 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 96 | 41 | 16 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 102 | 430 | 89 | 40 | 16 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 83 | 38 | 15 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 76 | 37 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 5.05 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 13 | 94 | 427 | 73 | 37 | 17 | 17.1% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 4.96 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 28 | 200 | 912 | 156 | 79 | 36 | 17.1% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 4.96 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Doktorczyk (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.40 | 22.1% | 13.6% | 347 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 94 |
| Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 94 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 93 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 93 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 92 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 92 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.96 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 60 | +0.05 | 4.91 | 157 | 92 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 91 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 91 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 90 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 90 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 90 |
| Thomas Farr R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.04 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .340 | 5.31 | 12.4% | 2.9% | 280 | +0.27 | 5.04 | 380 | 90 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 90 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 90 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 89 |
| Joey Mancini R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.39 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 221 | +0.21 | 3.65 | 316 | 89 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.99 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 65 | +0.16 | 3.83 | 155 | 89 |
| Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 89 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .314 | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 445 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 663 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| Totals | $9M | $60M | +$52M | ||