Jason Doktorczyk

Jason Doktorczyk P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%15.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	12	86	391	88	29	11	57%	4.1	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	4.1%	5.00	5.04	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	12	86	391	88	29	11	57%	4.1	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	4.1%	5.00	5.04	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	12	86	391	88	29	11	57%	4.1	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.8%	5.00	3.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	12	7	38	177	31	18	6	58%	3.2	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	4.2%	7.34	5.77	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	12	7	38	177	31	18	6	58%	3.2	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	4.2%	7.34	5.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIN	12	7	38	177	31	18	6	58%	3.2	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	3.4%	7.34	4.77	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	6	24	4	2	1	100%	5.6	15.5%	9.7%	5.8%	3.2%	5.15	5.15	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	44	201	35	20	7	—	—	17.3%	10.1%	7.2%	3.4%	7.06	5.69	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	80	336	58	32	11	100%	6.6	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	3.1%	5.00	4.95	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	81	340	61	32	11	100%	6.2	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.88	4.84	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	81	340	63	31	11	100%	6.2	18.5%	9.1%	9.3%	3.1%	4.81	4.79	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	79	335	69	28	11	100%	6.6	20.5%	8.4%	12.2%	3.2%	4.64	4.54	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	77	325	66	28	11	100%	6.4	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	3.3%	4.63	4.63	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	74	310	63	27	11	100%	6.7	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.76	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	69	292	58	26	11	100%	6.3	19.8%	9.1%	10.8%	3.6%	4.85	4.94	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	34	144	25	13	5	100%	6.8	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	3.2%	5.01	4.96	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	54	228	41	21	7	100%	6.8	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.89	4.85	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	64	270	50	25	8	100%	6.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.3%	3.1%	4.82	4.80	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	68	287	59	24	9	100%	6.2	20.5%	8.4%	12.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.55	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	69	291	59	25	10	100%	6.3	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.64	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	67	283	57	25	10	100%	6.7	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	3.4%	4.72	4.77	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	64	270	54	24	10	100%	6.4	19.8%	9.1%	10.8%	3.6%	4.86	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	418	1767	343	157	58	100%	6.4	19.4%	8.9%	10.6%	3.3%	4.78	4.39	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	164	75	28	100%	6.4	19.4%	8.9%	10.6%	3.3%	4.78	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		33	19	124	568	89	55	23	58%	3.8	15.7%	9.7%	6.0%	4.1%	5.72	5.27	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	31	200	914	143	88	38	58%	3.8	15.7%	9.7%	6.0%	4.1%	5.72	5.27	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Doktorczyk (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	15.5%	9.7%	3.2%	—	4.86	17.9%	8.6%	241	-0.29	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	89
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	88
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	87
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	86
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	86
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	85
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	84
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	84
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	84
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	83
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	83
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	83
Cesar Gomez R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	14.0%	9.0%	1.9%	.364	4.89	16.1%	7.0%	196	+0.78	4.11	345	83
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	83
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	82
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	82
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	82
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	81
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	75	18.8%	9.0%	1.26	4.83
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63