Jason Doktorczyk
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 23
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
A+
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 118
ERA5.23
FIP5.23
K%15.5%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%5.6%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 21 | 12 | 86 | 391 | 88 | 29 | 11 | 57% | 4.1 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 5.00 | 5.33 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 21 | 12 | 86 | 391 | 88 | 29 | 11 | 57% | 4.1 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 3.73 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 12 | 7 | 38 | 177 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 58% | 3.2 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 7.34 | 5.77 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 40 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.5% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.5% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 5.23 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 100 | 437 | 71 | 44 | 15 | — | — | 16.3% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 6.04 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.5% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 46 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.07 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 64 | 270 | 49 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.95 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 64 | 270 | 50 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 50 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.8 | 17.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.07 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.95 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 54 | 228 | 42 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.8 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 27 | 174 | 736 | 134 | 69 | 24 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.52 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 79 | 28 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 19 | 124 | 568 | 89 | 55 | 25 | 58% | 3.8 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.72 | 5.46 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 31 | 200 | 914 | 143 | 88 | 41 | 58% | 3.8 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.72 | 5.46 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Doktorczyk (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.23 | 15.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.93 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 191 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 88 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 88 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.83 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 135 | -1.08 | 3.22 | 218 | 87 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 86 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 86 |
| Matt Ager R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 85 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 85 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 84 |
| Carlos Sano R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 84 |
| Matt Marsh R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 84 |
| Justin Dillon R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .265 | 4.34 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 124 | -0.89 | 3.63 | 239 | 84 |
| Nick Belzer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.55 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 63 | +0.32 | 4.23 | 112 | 83 |
| Matt Peacock R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 83 |
| Joey Mancini R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .354 | 4.47 | 16.1% | 5.6% | 250 | +0.41 | 3.65 | 345 | 83 |
| Holden Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 15.8% | 11.0% | 3.1% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 114 | 82 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 82 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 13.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | .312 | 4.38 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 247 | -0.22 | 4.19 | 433 | 82 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.67 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 73 | -0.09 | 4.50 | 170 | 82 |
| Jordan Geber R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .341 | 4.51 | 15.5% | 7.5% | 176 | -0.63 | 4.16 | 239 | 82 |
| Michael Santos R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .289 | 4.91 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 49 | +0.41 | 2.26 | 276 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 17.6% | 9.5% | 1.25 | 5.00 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |