Nolan Sparks

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ASTL	10	0	15	2.35	2.97	29.5%	11.5%	—	K 21.8% · BB 13.5% · FIP 4.10
2025	22	ASTL	18	12	72	4.85	3.89	24.1%	13.9%	—	K 17.9% · BB 16.4% · FIP 5.03
2026	23	MIX2 levels	41	3	67	4.54	3.44	26.5%	10.1%	—	K 20.8% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.39
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	64	0	67	5.39	5.39	19.7%	15.4%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSTL	28	0	29	5.19	5.13	20.4%	13.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSTL	43	0	45	5.08	5.05	20.8%	13.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control25Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJarret Whorff (age 24) · Hayden Snelsire (age 23) · David Trexler (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%19.7%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%4.3%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	0	15	61	18	7	1	0%	1.5	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	2.1%	2.35	4.10	—
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	0	15	61	18	7	1	0%	1.5	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	2.1%	2.35	4.10	—
2024	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	0	15	61	18	7	1	0%	1.5	29.5%	11.5%	18.0%	1.6%	2.35	2.97	—
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	18	12	72	323	78	45	6	67%	4.0	17.9%	16.4%	1.4%	2.5%	4.85	5.03	—
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	18	12	72	323	78	45	6	67%	4.0	17.9%	16.4%	1.4%	2.5%	4.85	5.03	—
2025	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	18	12	72	323	78	45	6	67%	4.0	24.1%	13.9%	10.2%	1.9%	4.85	3.89	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	67	298	79	30	7	7%	1.6	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.39	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	67	298	79	30	7	7%	1.6	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.39	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	3	67	298	79	30	7	7%	1.6	26.5%	10.1%	16.4%	2.3%	4.54	3.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	64	0	67	283	56	44	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	15.4%	4.3%	2.9%	5.39	5.39	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	287	59	40	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.19	5.13	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	287	60	39	8	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.5%	7.3%	2.9%	5.08	5.05	-0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	67	283	59	38	8	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.4%	7.6%	3.0%	5.05	5.05	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	62	0	65	274	57	37	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.5%	7.4%	3.1%	5.08	5.12	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	28	0	29	122	25	17	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.19	5.13	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	43	0	45	190	40	26	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.5%	7.3%	2.9%	5.08	5.05	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	50	0	52	220	46	29	7	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.4%	7.6%	3.0%	5.05	5.05	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	52	0	55	232	49	31	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.5%	7.4%	3.1%	5.08	5.12	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	159	103	23	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.5%	7.3%	3.0%	5.09	4.70	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	114	25	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.5%	7.3%	3.0%	5.09	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		69	15	155	682	133	95	18	22%	2.2	19.5%	14.0%	5.5%	2.6%	4.47	4.67	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	19	200	880	172	123	23	22%	2.2	19.5%	14.0%	5.5%	2.6%	4.47	4.67	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Sparks (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	19.7%	15.4%	2.9%	—	5.08	20.7%	7.1%	203	-0.31	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	88
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	85
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	85
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	84
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	84
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	84
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	84
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	83
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	83
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	83
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.13	23.1%	9.6%	148	-1.43	2.57	310	82
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	82
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	82
James Acuna R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	24	SU	4.33	19.4%	14.8%	1.8%	.217	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	107	82
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	81
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	20.6%	14.0%	1.15	5.16
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*