Sebastian Nadales

SS DSL Padres Gold

Age 18 R/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Padres Go…	118	.348/.500/.461	1	3	95	—	.250/.379/.333
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLB—	228	.225/.309/.302	2	4	77	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLB—	66	.229/.314/.314	1	1	81	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLB—	160	.232/.318/.325	2	3	85	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA93

Whiff%92

Z-Con%92

Chase%90

wRC+89

K%89

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsAlirio Ferrebus (age 18) · Michael Arroyo (age 18) · Tyler Rodriguez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+77

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .307 / .299

PA100

HR1

K%22

BB%10

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
2037	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$18M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	118	89	31	5	1	1	24	15	3	3	2	348	500	461	961	112	400	13	20	430	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	118	96	24	3	1	1	17	18	3	3	2	250	379	333	713	83	276	15	14	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	118	96	24	3	1	1	17	18	3	3	2	250	379	333	713	83	291	15	14	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	118	89	31	5	1	1	24	15	3	3	2	348	500	461	961	112	400	13	20	430	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	118	97	24	3	1	1	17	18	3	3	2	247	379	330	709	82	276	15	14	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	118	97	24	3	1	1	17	18	3	3	2	247	379	330	709	82	276	15	14	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	228	201	46	7	2	2	22	51	3	4	1	225	309	302	612	77	290	22	10	282	77	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	34%	191	168	38	6	1	2	18	42	3	4	1	229	314	314	628	86	291	22	9	288	81	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	48%	330	290	67	11	2	4	32	73	5	6	2	232	318	325	643	94	293	22	10	294	85	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	54%	436	384	90	14	3	6	42	96	7	8	3	235	320	335	655	101	294	22	10	299	88	-6	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.9
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	57%	511	449	107	17	4	8	49	112	8	10	4	237	322	344	665	107	295	22	10	303	91	-6	+0	+0	+5	+11	1.2
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	58%	561	495	118	19	4	9	53	122	8	11	4	239	323	351	674	112	295	22	9	306	93	-5	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.4
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	594	524	125	20	4	10	56	129	9	11	5	240	324	354	678	114	296	22	9	307	94	-4	+0	+0	+6	+13	1.6
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	614	542	130	21	4	11	58	134	9	12	5	240	325	356	681	116	296	22	9	308	95	-4	+0	+0	+7	+13	1.7
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	57%	623	550	131	21	4	11	59	135	9	12	5	241	325	358	683	117	296	22	9	309	95	-4	+0	+0	+7	+13	1.7
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	60%	625	551	131	21	4	11	60	137	9	12	5	239	324	355	679	116	296	22	10	308	94	-4	+0	+0	+7	+14	1.7
2037	28	MLB MLE	—	62%	621	548	130	21	4	11	59	137	9	11	5	238	322	351	673	113	295	22	10	305	93	-6	+0	-1	+7	+13	1.4
2038	29	MLB MLE	—	63%	611	539	127	20	4	10	58	137	9	11	6	235	319	345	664	109	294	22	9	301	90	-7	-0	-1	+7	+13	1.1
2039	30	MLB MLE	—	63%	601	531	124	20	4	9	57	137	8	10	6	233	316	337	653	104	292	23	9	297	87	-9	-0	-2	+6	+13	0.8
2040	31	MLB MLE	—	65%	587	519	120	19	4	9	55	136	8	9	9	228	311	327	639	99	290	23	9	291	83	-12	-2	-3	+6	+13	0.3
2041	32	MLB MLE	—	65%	569	505	112	17	3	7	52	134	7	9	14	223	305	316	621	92	286	24	9	284	78	-15	-4	-4	+6	+12	-0.4
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	34%	66	59	13	2	0	1	6	15	1	1	0	229	314	314	628	86	291	23	9	288	81	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	48%	160	142	32	5	1	2	15	35	2	3	1	232	318	325	643	94	293	22	9	294	85	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	54%	236	207	49	8	2	3	23	52	4	5	2	235	320	335	655	101	294	22	10	299	88	-3	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	57%	289	255	60	10	2	4	28	63	4	6	2	237	322	344	665	107	295	22	10	303	91	-3	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	58%	323	284	67	11	2	5	31	70	5	6	2	239	323	351	674	112	295	22	10	306	93	-3	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.8
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	339	299	72	12	2	6	32	74	5	6	3	240	324	354	678	114	296	22	9	307	94	-2	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.9
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	348	307	73	12	2	6	33	76	5	7	3	240	325	356	681	116	296	22	9	308	95	-2	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.0
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	57%	353	311	74	12	2	6	34	77	5	7	3	241	325	358	683	117	296	22	10	309	95	-2	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.0
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	60%	374	330	80	13	3	7	36	82	5	7	3	239	324	355	679	116	296	22	10	308	94	-3	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.0
2037	28	MLB CTX	—	62%	384	338	81	13	3	7	37	85	6	7	3	238	322	351	673	113	295	22	10	305	93	-3	+0	-0	+4	+8	0.9
2038	29	MLB CTX	—	63%	384	340	80	13	3	6	36	86	5	7	4	235	319	345	664	109	294	22	9	301	90	-4	-0	-1	+4	+8	0.7
2039	30	MLB CTX	—	63%	382	338	78	12	2	6	36	87	5	6	4	233	316	337	653	104	292	23	9	297	87	-6	-0	-1	+4	+8	0.5
2040	31	MLB CTX	—	65%	382	338	77	12	2	6	36	88	5	6	6	228	311	327	639	99	290	23	9	291	83	-8	-1	-2	+4	+8	0.2
2041	32	MLB CTX	—	65%	370	328	73	11	2	5	34	87	5	6	9	223	305	316	621	92	286	24	9	284	78	-10	-2	-2	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4390	3876	909	146	28	70	417	977	62	80	45	235	319	341	660	106	294	22	9	301	90	-53	-2	-7	+47	+95	8.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	134	22	4	10	62	145	9	12	7	233	318	338	656	105	294	22	10	301	90	-8	-0	-1	+7	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	7692	6780	1594	253	51	120	735	1701	112	141	76	235	320	341	661	105	295	22	10	301	90	-93	-2	-10	+81	+164	14.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	134	21	4	10	62	144	9	12	6	234	318	337	655	103	294	22	10	301	90	-8	-0	-1	+7	+14	1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Billy Rogell'25-'40 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,919 PA	8.9	5,919	42	82	240*	319*	369*	+58	+47	16.9	19.4
/162	664	5	9	+6.5	+5.3	1.9	pk7: 22
#2Chico Carrasquel'50-'59 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,259 PA	7.9	5,259	55	31	251*	317*	361*	+54	+31	14.2	15.5
/162	664	7	4	+6.9	+3.9	1.8	pk7: 17
#3Spike Owen'83-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,615 PA	8.5	5,615	46	82	242*	322*	356*	+55	+30	15.6	15.3
/162	664	5	10	+6.5	+3.6	1.8	pk7: 15
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.8	4,488	71	81	236	317	343	+48	+27	11.4	9.7
/162	664	11	12	+7.1	+4.0	1.7	pk7: 8
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sebastian Nadales (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	223/307/299	76	290	1	2	22%	10%	77	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕José Mejía 2024 · A	18	47→45	37→40	52→50	50	220/299/296	76	279	4	16	21%	8%	72	-0.7	209/295/292	83	249	5	20	17%	9%	70	-0.8	206/298/295	89	251	6	19	19%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Jonathan Galvez 2009 · A	18	42→51	37→50	51→55	58	197/311/267	70	262	5	9	24%	13%	72	-0.7	215/290/330	115	309	10	14	31%	9%	77	-0.3	244/294/364	120	343	10	23	30%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Miguel Rodríguez 2024 · A	18	48	35→40	45	58	218/327/282	64	261	2	10	16%	11%	82	-0.0	223/312/301	78	263	5	7	16%	9%	80	-0.2	228/321/301	73	263	6	6	15%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	39→47	39→50	48→50	51	188/277/271	84	242	6	14	24%	10%	59	-1.6	207/281/319	112	295	10	8	31%	8%	72	-0.7	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	47→57	36→45	49→50	50	218/277/294	76	258	2	12	16%	7%	63	-1.4	229/275/301	72	282	3	12	19%	5%	63	-1.4	276/322/383	106	335	4	17	18%	5%	96	+0.8
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	47	36→40	44→45	52	220/303/284	64	270	3	8	18%	9%	72	-0.7	199/266/269	70	259	4	5	23%	8%	53	-2.1	215/270/283	69	275	5	4	23%	7%	55	-0.5
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	43→50	38→50	51→65	51	204/279/286	82	265	5	10	24%	9%	62	-1.4	201/264/285	84	268	5	34	25%	7%	56	-1.9	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Welbyn Francisca 2024 · A	18	44→41	39→45	50→55	48	208/283/300	92	277	5	12	25%	8%	68	-1.0	228/294/332	104	296	9	20	24%	8%	78	-0.3	225/294/339	114	289	12	24	25%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Joendry Vargas 2024 · A	18	44→51	40→45	52→55	53	213/288/305	92	259	7	17	20%	9%	70	-0.8	215/273/324	109	300	9	18	30%	7%	69	-0.9	226/269/345	120	310	11	19	30%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	44→53	39→45	54→55	48	206/278/298	92	275	5	13	25%	9%	65	-1.2	213/265/301	88	288	6	11	27%	6%	60	-1.6	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	40→46	37→45	47→55	51	190/291/259	69	233	5	12	19%	8%	63	-1.4	203/293/290	87	241	8	16	18%	9%	70	-0.9	224/302/327	104	269	12	19	21%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2021 · A	19	44→49	37→55	49→50	45	205/273/280	75	288	3	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	244/281/380	136	295	14	15	22%	4%	84	+0.2	251/287/411	161	323	17	11	27%	4%	94	+0.8
✕Angel Cepeda 2024 · A	18	45→43	37→45	52→55	46	205/294/283	79	301	4	9	30%	9%	68	-1.0	205/276/298	93	338	8	17	38%	7%	64	-1.3	200/276/300	101	335	10	19	40%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	43→51	39→45	47→45	49	205/283/297	92	259	5	4	22%	8%	67	-1.1	204/276/286	82	286	4	4	28%	7%	61	-1.5	232/310/341	109	301	10	3	24%	9%	83	+0.1

Sebastian Nadales

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps