Luis Diaz

P DSL Cubs Red

Age 18 RHP ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	17	ROKDSL Cubs Red	11	8	34	7.60	4.03	16.2%	12.0%	—	K 11.0% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.99
2027PROJ	18	MLB—	5	5	20	5.27	5.27	18.4%	13.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLB—	4	4	16	5.04	4.94	19.7%	12.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMoises Castillo (age 19) · Cristian Aray (age 17) · Adam Bates (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%18.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	11	8	34	167	27	20	2	73%	3.1	11.0%	15.0%	-4.0%	1.7%	7.60	4.99	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	11	8	34	167	27	20	2	73%	3.1	11.0%	15.0%	-4.0%	1.7%	7.60	4.99	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	11	8	34	167	27	20	2	73%	3.1	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	1.2%	7.60	4.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	—	5	5	20	84	16	12	2	100%	4.0	18.4%	13.7%	4.7%	2.9%	5.27	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	7	7	32	137	27	17	4	100%	4.6	19.7%	12.2%	7.5%	2.9%	5.04	4.94	-0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	4	4	16	68	13	8	2	100%	4.0	19.7%	12.2%	7.5%	2.9%	5.04	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	16	67	13	8	2	100%	4.0	19.7%	12.2%	7.5%	2.9%	5.04	4.56	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	163	100	25	100%	4.3	19.7%	12.2%	7.5%	2.9%	5.04	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		11	8	34	167	18	25	3	73%	3.1	11.0%	15.0%	-4.0%	1.7%	7.60	4.99	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	47	200	973	107	146	16	73%	3.1	11.0%	15.0%	-4.0%	1.7%	7.60	4.99	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	18.4%	13.7%	2.9%	—	4.94	19.7%	7.5%	32	-0.33	—	—	—
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	87
Cristian Aray R 2024 · 4.99 FIP	17	SP-	4.99	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.272	4.48	13.0%	-2.3%	72	-0.51	4.44	104	86
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	86
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	84
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	84
Gary Gill Hill R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP	4.91	14.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.356	4.59	16.1%	9.8%	380	-0.32	4.32	417	82
Jose Cedeno R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	17	SP-	4.66	15.3%	9.7%	3.0%	.271	3.39	21.5%	12.9%	88	-1.27	2.80	123	82
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	82
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	82
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	82
Ronny Oliver R 2022 · 5.86 FIP	18	SP-	5.86	13.8%	15.2%	3.6%	.323	4.25	16.1%	-1.3%	102	-1.61	3.67	167	81
Mayky Perez R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	19	SP-	4.09	15.3%	13.6%	1.0%	.319	4.74	17.9%	3.4%	130	+0.65	3.44	160	81
Joel Díaz R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	18	SP-	5.45	15.3%	11.9%	3.9%	.335	4.86	16.2%	8.2%	174	-0.59	1.98	328	81
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	81
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	81
Victor Munoz R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	18	SP-	4.33	14.4%	12.6%	1.6%	.273	3.63	14.1%	7.7%	107	-0.70	2.18	260	80
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	200	80
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	80
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	80
David Lorduy R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	18	SP-	4.51	15.0%	13.4%	1.8%	.369	3.91	18.0%	9.9%	172	-0.60	3.38	269	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	19.2%	12.8%	1.12	5.13
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76