Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 16 | 0 | 32 | 144 | 28 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 2.0 | 13.2% | 15.6% | -2.4% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.56 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 16 | 0 | 32 | 144 | 28 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 2.0 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 5.06 | 4.26 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | 11 | 8 | 41 | 179 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 73% | 3.8 | 14.4% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.61 | 4.33 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | 11 | 8 | 41 | 179 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 73% | 3.8 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 1.1% | 2.61 | 3.20 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 42 | 169 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 77% | 3.2 | 19.3% | 5.6% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 2.14 | 2.18 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 42 | 169 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 77% | 3.2 | 27.8% | 4.1% | 23.7% | 0.6% | 2.14 | 1.67 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 6 | 75 | 324 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 25% | 3.1 | 11.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 4.46 | 4.27 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 6 | 75 | 324 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 25% | 3.1 | 15.7% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 4.46 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 12 | 82 | 373 | 68 | 35 | 10 | 44% | 3.0 | 14.4% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 7.21 | 4.71 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 12 | 82 | 373 | 68 | 35 | 10 | 44% | 3.0 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 7.21 | 4.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TB | 53 | 0 | 56 | 234 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 53 | 0 | 56 | 234 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.05 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 78 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 36 | 272 | 1189 | 170 | 114 | 25 | 40% | 3.0 | 14.3% | 9.6% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 4.73 | 4.28 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 26 | 200 | 873 | 125 | 84 | 19 | 40% | 3.0 | 14.3% | 9.6% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 4.73 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Munoz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.42 | 22.4% | 13.1% | 110 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 82 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 82 |
| Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 81 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 81 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 81 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 80 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 79 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 79 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 79 |
| Jake Lyons R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 78 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 78 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 77 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 77 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.26 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .321 | 3.22 | 25.9% | 16.8% | 60 | -2.04 | 2.63 | 213 | 77 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 77 |
| Michael King R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.55 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .316 | 2.73 | 28.3% | 20.8% | 219 | -1.82 | 1.96 | 948 | 77 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 76 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.12 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 226 | +0.56 | 3.56 | 262 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 1.16 | 4.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |