Axel Perez

P DSL Orioles Black

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 158 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL LAD Mega	10	9	23	5.48	3.14	31.1%	12.6%	—	K 21.1% · BB 15.8% · FIP 4.79
2026	20	ROKDSL Orioles B…	12	9	32	8.07	4.74	18.1%	17.5%	—	K 12.3% · BB 21.8% · FIP 5.75
2027PROJ	21	MLBBAL	3	3	17	5.80	5.80	19.2%	18.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBAL	3	3	15	5.42	5.27	20.8%	15.5%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsChris Viall (age 20) · Jackson Fristoe (age 22) · Marco Jimenez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.80

FIP5.80

K%19.2%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%0.8%

Proj IP17

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	10	9	23	103	32	13	2	90%	2.3	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.7%	5.48	4.79	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	10	9	23	103	32	13	2	90%	2.3	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.7%	5.48	4.79	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	10	9	23	103	32	13	2	90%	2.3	31.1%	12.6%	18.4%	1.9%	5.48	3.14	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	12	9	32	166	30	29	2	75%	2.7	12.3%	21.8%	-9.5%	1.7%	8.07	5.75	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	12	9	32	166	30	29	2	75%	2.7	12.3%	21.8%	-9.5%	1.7%	8.07	5.75	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	12	9	32	166	30	29	2	75%	2.7	18.1%	17.5%	0.6%	1.2%	8.07	4.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BAL	3	3	17	72	14	13	2	100%	5.7	19.2%	18.4%	0.8%	2.9%	5.80	5.80	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	6	6	31	129	27	20	4	100%	5.1	20.8%	15.5%	5.3%	2.9%	5.42	5.27	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	15	63	13	10	2	100%	5.0	20.8%	15.5%	5.3%	2.9%	5.42	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	64	13	10	2	100%	5.0	20.8%	15.5%	5.3%	2.9%	5.42	4.89	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	173	133	27	100%	5.1	20.8%	15.5%	5.3%	2.9%	5.42	4.89	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		22	18	55	269	42	52	6	82%	2.5	15.7%	19.5%	-3.8%	2.1%	6.99	5.38	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	65	200	972	152	190	20	82%	2.5	15.7%	19.5%	-3.8%	2.1%	6.99	5.38	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Axel Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.80	19.2%	18.4%	2.9%	—	5.27	20.8%	5.3%	31	-0.53	—	—	—
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	87
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	87
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	87
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	84
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	84
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	81
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	80
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	80
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	80
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	79
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	216	79
Ismael Agreda R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP-	5.28	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.71	21.1%	6.1%	178	-0.57	3.35	272	78
Dylan Questad R 2024 · 6.95 FIP	19	SP-	6.95	17.6%	24.0%	4.2%	.392	6.50	17.3%	-5.3%	89	-0.45	6.31	117	78
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	78
Marlon Nieves R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	19	SP	5.63	17.9%	20.0%	2.8%	.300	4.19	18.6%	1.2%	134	-1.44	3.82	187	78
Omar Victorino R 2024 · 5.88 FIP	19	SP-	5.88	19.5%	30.3%	1.1%	.302	5.30	13.2%	-5.7%	97	-0.58	5.26	182	78
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	77
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	77
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	77