Adrian Ardines

P FCL Astros

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 186 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2033

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Astros Or…	13	2	21	8.27	5.23	18.9%	18.0%	—	K 12.9% · BB 22.5% · FIP 6.40
2025	18	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	13	5	42	1.91	1.26	34.4%	4.3%	—	K 23.4% · BB 5.4% · FIP 2.31
2026	19	MIX2 levels	17	13	72	3.86	3.16	28.2%	9.1%	—	K 19.7% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	20	MLBHOU	14	14	88	4.36	4.36	22.0%	8.7%	0.6
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBHOU	7	7	46	4.20	4.12	22.7%	7.9%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBHOU	11	11	71	4.03	3.91	23.7%	7.1%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control55Command65

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 86%

CompsLogan Hofmann (age 21) · Javi Rivera (age 22) · Blake Money (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%22.0%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%13.3%

Proj IP88

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$76M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.3	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+1.1	$4M	+$4M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$32M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	2	21	111	21	20	2	15%	1.6	12.9%	22.5%	-9.7%	2.8%	8.27	6.40	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	2	21	111	21	20	2	15%	1.6	12.9%	22.5%	-9.7%	2.8%	8.27	6.40	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	13	2	21	111	21	20	2	15%	1.6	18.9%	18.0%	0.9%	1.8%	8.27	5.23	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	42	163	56	7	1	38%	3.3	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	0.9%	1.91	2.31	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	42	163	56	7	1	38%	3.3	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	0.9%	1.91	2.31	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	42	163	56	7	1	38%	3.3	34.4%	4.3%	30.1%	0.6%	1.91	1.26	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	72	298	84	27	7	76%	4.3	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.2%	3.86	4.60	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	72	298	84	27	7	76%	4.3	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.2%	3.86	4.60	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	72	298	84	27	7	76%	4.3	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	2.3%	3.86	3.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	HOU	14	14	88	372	82	32	11	100%	6.3	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	93	391	89	31	11	100%	6.2	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.9%	4.24	4.16	+0.8
2029	22	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	97	410	97	29	12	100%	6.5	23.7%	7.1%	16.6%	2.9%	4.07	3.95	+1.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	101	426	104	28	12	100%	6.3	24.3%	6.6%	17.7%	2.8%	3.92	3.82	+1.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	103	436	108	28	12	100%	6.5	24.8%	6.4%	18.5%	2.8%	3.81	3.72	+1.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	105	442	111	27	12	100%	6.5	25.2%	6.2%	19.0%	2.8%	3.72	3.66	+1.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	105	442	112	27	12	100%	6.5	25.4%	6.2%	19.2%	2.8%	3.67	3.64	+1.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	103	435	111	27	12	100%	6.4	25.4%	6.2%	19.2%	2.8%	3.68	3.68	+1.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	100	422	107	27	12	100%	6.2	25.3%	6.4%	18.9%	2.9%	3.73	3.76	+1.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	95	403	101	27	12	100%	6.4	25.1%	6.6%	18.4%	3.1%	3.83	3.89	+1.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	90	379	94	26	12	100%	6.4	24.7%	6.9%	17.8%	3.3%	3.98	4.07	+0.9
2038	31	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	84	353	86	26	12	100%	6.4	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	3.5%	4.16	4.27	+0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	46	194	44	15	6	100%	6.6	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.8%	4.20	4.12	+0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	71	300	71	21	8	100%	6.5	23.7%	7.1%	16.6%	2.8%	4.03	3.91	+0.8
2030	23	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	85	359	87	24	10	100%	6.5	24.3%	6.6%	17.7%	2.7%	3.88	3.78	+1.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	92	388	96	25	11	100%	6.6	24.8%	6.4%	18.5%	2.7%	3.77	3.68	+1.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	96	405	102	25	11	100%	6.4	25.2%	6.2%	19.0%	2.7%	3.68	3.62	+1.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	98	414	105	26	11	100%	6.5	25.4%	6.2%	19.2%	2.7%	3.63	3.60	+1.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	98	414	105	26	11	100%	6.5	25.4%	6.2%	19.2%	2.8%	3.64	3.64	+1.5
2035	28	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	95	401	101	26	11	100%	6.3	25.3%	6.4%	18.9%	2.9%	3.69	3.72	+1.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	91	384	96	25	12	100%	6.5	25.1%	6.6%	18.4%	3.0%	3.78	3.84	+1.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	85	359	89	25	11	100%	6.5	24.7%	6.9%	17.8%	3.2%	3.93	4.02	+0.8
2038	31	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	79	334	81	24	11	100%	6.6	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	3.4%	4.11	4.22	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		147	147	935	3948	978	262	113	100%	6.4	24.8%	6.6%	18.1%	2.9%	3.82	3.43	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	209	56	24	100%	6.4	24.8%	6.6%	18.1%	2.9%	3.82	3.43	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		43	20	135	572	111	67	14	47%	3.1	19.4%	11.6%	7.8%	2.5%	3.92	4.30	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	30	200	845	164	98	21	47%	3.1	19.4%	11.6%	7.8%	2.5%	3.92	4.30	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Ardines (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	22.0%	8.7%	3.0%	—	3.97	23.6%	16.4%	291	-0.39	—	—	—
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	85
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	85
Blake Money R 2024 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP-	3.46	20.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.281	4.00	23.6%	14.1%	121	+0.54	3.46	224	83
Alessandro Ercolani R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	20	SW	3.92	22.9%	9.2%	2.9%	.267	5.69	12.9%	1.7%	121	+1.77	3.82	311	83
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	83
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.84	16.4%	2.8%	184	+1.25	3.59	281	83
Nick Davila R 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.04	17.3%	11.1%	196	+0.16	3.51	368	82
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	82
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	82
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.10	24.4%	11.8%	56	+0.75	2.93	103	80
Tom de Blok R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	21	SW	3.87	17.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.285	4.70	13.0%	3.1%	213	+0.83	3.87	291	80
Christian Zazueta R 2024 · 4.59 FIP	19	SP-	4.59	20.6%	9.1%	3.8%	.321	3.80	25.6%	19.5%	170	-0.79	3.74	314	80
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	80
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	80
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	79
Joelvis Del Rosario R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	22.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.315	4.97	14.6%	6.0%	197	+1.21	3.13	286	79
David Burkhalter R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	20	SW	3.64	16.0%	6.1%	2.1%	.308	4.03	12.9%	8.5%	88	+0.39	3.11	189	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78
Vince Velasquez R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	23	SW	3.26	26.2%	9.8%	2.1%	.290	3.87	25.5%	16.5%	350	+0.61	3.26	964	78
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2021 · 3.22 FIP	20	SP-	3.22	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.07	3.22	130	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	97	24.5%	6.8%	1.14	3.92
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Whit Wyatt ('29-'45, 23 WAR*)	8.8	117	26.1%*	8.3%*	1.11*	4.02*
Ed Halicki ('74-'80, 11 WAR*)	5.3	152	22.9%*	7.2%*	1.10*	4.18*