Victor Leal — OGILVIE

Victor LealC FCL Twins

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 174 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 11 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .273 / .200

PA11

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP282

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$47M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 62 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT62

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$7M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$19M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	154	126	29	4	0	3	21	15	6	4	4	230	366	333	699	103	239	10	14	327	107	+1	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	84	62	10	0	0	0	17	12	2	1	2	161	358	161	519		189	14	20	266	66	-3	-1	—	—	+2	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	154	135	24	3	0	3	12	22	6	4	4	178	275	267	541	89	185	14	8	240	49	-9	-1	—	—	+3	-0.7
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	84	68	9	0	0	0	11	17	2	1	2	132	272	132	404		150	20	13	198	20	-8	-1	—	—	+2	-0.7
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	154	135	24	3	0	3	12	22	6	4	4	178	275	267	541	89	189	14	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	154	126	29	4	0	3	21	15	6	4	4	230	366	333	699	103	239	10	14	327	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	84	68	9	0	0	0	11	17	2	1	2	132	272	132	404		167	20	13	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	84	62	10	0	0	0	17	12	2	1	2	161	358	161	519		189	14	20	266	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	154	135	24	3	0	3	12	22	6	4	4	178	275	267	541	89	185	14	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	84	71	9	0	0	0	11	17	2	1	2	127	272	127	398		150	20	13	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	154	135	24	3	0	3	12	22	6	4	4	178	275	267	541	89	185	14	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	84	71	9	0	0	0	11	17	2	1	2	127	272	127	398		150	20	13	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	MIN	—	110	93	16	5	0	0	12	26	3	2	1	172	287	226	513	54	235	24	11	240	49	-7	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	MIN	—	110	85	20	7	0	0	20	18	3	2	1	235	398	318	716	82	294	16	18	336	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	MIN	0%	11	10	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	200	273	200	473		282	27	9	279	75	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	MIN	—	121	103	18	5	0	0	13	29	3	2	1	175	286	223	509	49	240	24	11	244	51	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	187	165	37	7	1	3	17	44	3	3	1	224	308	333	641	109	284	24	9	289	81	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	322	284	65	13	2	5	30	75	5	6	2	229	313	342	655	113	286	23	9	295	86	-5	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.8
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	421	372	86	17	2	8	39	97	7	8	3	231	316	352	668	121	287	23	9	300	89	-5	+0	+0	+8	+9	1.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	486	430	98	19	2	9	45	111	8	9	3	228	313	344	657	116	288	23	9	303	91	-5	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	520	458	107	21	3	10	49	118	8	10	4	234	318	358	677	124	289	23	9	305	92	-5	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	520	458	107	21	3	10	49	118	8	10	4	234	318	358	677	124	289	23	9	305	93	-4	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	520	458	107	21	3	10	49	118	8	10	4	234	318	358	677	124	289	23	9	306	93	-4	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	520	458	105	20	2	10	49	118	8	10	4	229	315	347	662	118	288	23	9	306	93	-4	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	520	457	105	20	2	10	50	119	8	10	4	230	317	348	664	118	288	23	10	305	92	-5	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIN	58%	520	457	105	20	2	10	50	120	8	10	3	230	317	348	664	118	287	23	10	303	91	-6	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIN	60%	520	457	104	20	2	10	50	121	8	9	3	228	315	346	660	118	286	23	10	300	89	-7	+1	-2	+9	+11	1.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIN	62%	504	442	100	19	2	9	49	119	8	9	3	226	315	339	654	113	284	24	10	296	87	-8	+1	-3	+9	+11	1.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIN	63%	488	430	95	18	2	8	47	117	8	8	3	221	309	328	637	107	281	24	10	291	83	-10	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.6
2040	33	MLB MLE	MIN	63%	446	393	85	15	2	7	43	110	7	7	2	216	305	318	623	102	277	25	10	284	78	-12	+1	-4	+8	+10	0.3
2041	34	MLB MLE	MIN	59%	390	344	71	12	1	6	37	98	6	6	2	206	295	299	594	93	271	25	9	276	73	-13	+0	-5	+7	+8	-0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	64	57	12	2	0	1	6	15	1	1	0	211	297	298	595	88	285	23	9	277	81	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	156	139	32	6	1	3	14	36	2	3	1	230	310	353	662	122	286	23	9	284	86	-3	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	228	201	46	9	1	4	21	52	4	4	1	229	314	343	657	114	287	23	9	289	89	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	275	243	56	11	1	5	26	63	4	5	2	230	315	346	661	115	288	23	9	292	91	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	294	260	60	12	1	6	27	67	5	6	2	231	315	354	669	123	289	23	9	293	92	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	294	259	60	12	1	6	28	67	5	6	2	232	318	355	674	124	289	23	10	294	93	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	294	259	60	12	1	6	28	67	5	6	2	232	318	355	674	124	289	23	10	294	93	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	288	254	59	11	1	6	27	66	5	6	2	232	318	354	673	122	289	23	9	294	93	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	285	251	58	11	1	6	27	65	5	5	2	231	318	355	673	124	288	23	9	293	92	-3	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIN	58%	302	265	61	12	1	6	29	70	5	6	2	230	318	351	669	121	287	23	10	291	91	-3	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.8
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIN	60%	313	275	63	12	1	6	30	73	5	6	2	229	316	345	662	116	286	23	10	289	89	-4	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.8
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIN	62%	311	273	62	12	1	6	30	74	5	5	2	227	315	344	659	117	284	24	10	285	87	-5	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.6
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIN	63%	306	269	59	11	1	5	29	74	5	5	2	219	307	323	630	104	281	24	9	280	83	-6	+0	-2	+5	+7	0.4
2040	33	MLB CTX	MIN	63%	283	250	54	10	1	5	27	70	4	4	2	216	302	324	626	108	277	25	10	273	78	-7	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.1
2041	34	MLB CTX	MIN	59%	230	203	42	7	1	3	22	58	3	3	1	207	294	296	589	89	272	25	10	265	73	-7	+0	-3	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3923	3458	784	150	14	74	371	917	63	71	25	227	313	342	655	116	286	23	9	287	86	-56	+4	-12	+70	+85	9.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	129	25	2	12	61	152	10	12	4	225	310	339	649	113	284	23	9	287	86	-9	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	7133	6276	1412	266	31	128	677	1645	116	130	51	225	312	338	650	113	283	23	9	296	86	-97	+7	-20	+123	+149	16.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	129	24	3	12	62	150	11	12	5	226	314	341	655	115	283	23	10	296	86	-9	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	5.1	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
/162	664	19	1	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.0	4,010	74	72	228	311	345	+72	+36	12.7	10.3
/162	664	12	12	+11.9	+6.0	2.1	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Leal (OGILVIE)	19	57→62	33→38	46→51	62	214/299/302	88	282	1	1	24%	9%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	76	-0.4	235/301/339	104	297	6	12	21%	8%	82	+0.0	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	50	36→40	44→45	50	231/310/298	67	290	3	8	20%	8%	77	-0.3	208/273/281	73	275	4	5	24%	8%	59	-1.7	214/269/283	68	275	5	4	23%	7%	54	-0.5
✕Juan Fernandez 2018 · A	19	48→57	41→40	48→50	47	230/294/335	105	278	8	6	20%	7%	80	-0.2	203/260/280	77	266	5	4	24%	6%	53	-2.1	237/297/317	80	293	7	9	21%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Luis Santana 2018 · A	19	52	39→45	54→50	50	243/311/343	100	274	5	11	13%	7%	87	+0.4	246/316/336	90	288	6	9	16%	7%	88	+0.4	234/303/348	114	293	12	10	23%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	50→52	39→40	54→50	56	234/323/325	91	290	6	14	20%	11%	88	+0.4	239/315/327	88	307	7	14	23%	8%	86	+0.3	239/316/323	84	307	7	14	23%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	51→61	38→45	49→50	48	238/291/324	86	288	3	12	18%	7%	74	-0.5	234/279/310	76	290	3	12	19%	5%	66	-1.1	270/316/373	102	329	4	17	18%	5%	92	+0.5
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→60	41→50	49→50	58	237/329/342	104	299	8	10	22%	12%	94	+0.9	248/333/382	134	332	12	14	26%	11%	104	+1.6	244/329/380	136	317	13	15	25%	11%	100	+1.3
✕Luisangel Acuña 2021 · A	19	49→55	38→45	51→60	51	232/298/315	83	281	5	13	18%	8%	76	-0.4	230/288/333	103	317	10	30	29%	7%	76	-0.4	238/295/340	102	321	10	39	28%	7%	77	-0.3
✕Henry Henry 2007 · A	20	53	39→40	48→60	52	250/330/338	87	313	5	15	20%	9%	93	+0.8	245/315/330	85	282	6	20	14%	7%	86	+0.3	250/305/317	67	277	4	30	11%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Blaze Alexander 2019 · A	20	48	42→45	52→50	43	226/288/345	119	321	8	10	30%	7%	79	-0.2	202/270/304	102	302	9	11	34%	7%	63	-1.3	239/319/362	123	339	12	15	30%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Jesus Morelli 2009 · A	19	49	42→45	48→50	49	234/311/346	112	300	9	12	24%	8%	88	+0.5	220/282/290	70	304	4	10	27%	6%	64	-1.3	219/279/260	41	287	0	14	22%	6%	53	-0.5
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	52→58	41→45	46→50	51	249/316/346	97	301	9	15	20%	9%	90	+0.6	231/301/326	95	276	7	10	18%	9%	79	-0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
✕Daniel Robertson 2013 · A	19	45→54	46→45	52→40	49	225/297/363	139	266	12	6	20%	8%	87	+0.4	237/302/348	111	297	9	3	22%	7%	85	+0.2	232/336/343	111	304	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.6
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	50→60	38→40	51→50	50	237/313/315	78	287	5	13	18%	8%	82	-0.0	227/281/295	68	274	3	9	17%	6%	65	-1.2	245/328/327	82	296	5	2	17%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Chance Sisco 2014 · A	19	53→63	38→45	47→40	46	245/315/324	79	338	5	6	27%	8%	84	+0.2	270/322/358	88	348	6	4	22%	7%	94	+0.9	281/334/370	89	357	6	3	22%	7%	99	+0.9
●Miguel Vargas 2019 · A	19	50→52	39→55	52→50	45	238/294/331	93	306	5	8	23%	7%	78	-0.3	246/298/362	116	303	10	8	21%	6%	86	+0.3	224/326/406	183	249	21	12	19%	12%	105	+1.6
✕Cam Maron 2010 · A	19	46→56	40	50→40	47	222/289/316	94	291	7	7	25%	8%	73	-0.6	241/308/328	87	308	7	5	22%	8%	82	+0.0	248/318/312	64	318	4	2	21%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Christian Arroyo 2014 · A	19	48→54	40→45	49→45	43	230/278/337	107	296	5	6	23%	6%	73	-0.6	232/265/330	98	294	6	4	23%	4%	66	-1.1	253/305/403	150	305	16	7	22%	5%	96	+0.4
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	47→45	42→50	47→45	49	229/304/342	113	282	9	10	21%	8%	85	+0.2	224/276/345	121	286	13	8	26%	6%	74	-0.5	222/278/352	130	268	15	6	23%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Sherman Lacrus 2014 · A	20	51	39→30	47→50	48	243/318/320	77	276	7	9	14%	6%	85	+0.2	217/284/305	88	264	7	7	19%	7%	69	-0.9	193/256/279	86	239	6	6	21%	6%	51	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps