Juan Mateo — OGILVIE

Juan MateoSS Augusta GreenJackets

Age 19 L/R 6'0" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION277 act + 184 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .268 / .281

PA184

HR1

SB7

K%25

BB%6

BABIP289

ISO64

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.3	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$35M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	165	152	29	5	1	1	13	22	0	9	6	191	255	257	511	66	217	13	8	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	165	144	36	7	1	1	21	16	0	9	6	250	345	333	679	83	276	10	13	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	2 teams	—	345	321	64	9	0	0	20	98	1	14	8	199	249	227	476	28	283	28	6	218	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	2 teams	—	345	307	80	12	0	0	33	66	1	14	8	261	333	300	633	39	328	19	10	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	ATL	—	277	260	55	8	2	2	17	77	0	16	7	212	260	281	541	69	293	28	6	241	43	-18	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.7
YTD	19	A	ATL	—	277	249	65	11	3	2	27	54	0	16	7	261	332	353	686	92	326	19	10	312	97	-1	+0	+0	+3	+8	1.0
ROS	19	A	ATL	0%	184	170	37	6	1	1	12	46	0	7	3	217	268	281	549	64	284	25	6	244	45	-11	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.4
ROS	19	MLB	ATL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		284	—	—	243	44	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	A	ATL	—	277	261	55	8	2	2	17	77	0	16	7	211	260	280	540	69	291	28	6	241	43	-18	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.7
TOT	19	A	ATL	—	461	430	92	14	3	3	29	123	0	23	10	214	263	281	544	67	291	27	6	242	44	-29	+1	+0	+5	+13	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	ATL	34%	510	469	106	17	3	6	34	123	2	12	6	226	281	313	595	87	288	24	7	264	60	-23	+0	+0	+5	+14	-0.3
2028	21	MLB	ATL	48%	536	492	113	18	3	8	37	126	2	12	5	230	286	327	613	98	289	24	7	277	70	-18	+0	+0	+6	+15	0.3
2029	22	MLB	ATL	54%	581	531	124	20	3	11	42	134	3	12	6	234	293	345	638	111	290	23	7	285	76	-15	+0	+0	+6	+16	0.7
2030	23	MLB	ATL	57%	611	558	131	21	3	12	45	139	3	13	6	235	295	348	643	113	291	23	7	290	80	-14	+0	+0	+7	+17	1.1
2031	24	MLB	ATL	57%	630	576	136	22	3	13	46	143	3	13	6	236	296	352	648	116	292	23	7	293	82	-13	+0	+0	+7	+18	1.2
2032	25	MLB	ATL	57%	639	583	139	23	3	13	47	144	4	13	6	238	300	355	655	117	292	23	7	294	83	-12	+0	+0	+7	+18	1.3
2033	26	MLB	ATL	56%	642	585	140	23	3	14	48	144	4	13	6	239	301	361	662	121	291	22	7	295	84	-12	+0	+0	+7	+18	1.4
2034	27	MLB	ATL	55%	639	582	138	22	3	14	48	144	4	12	6	237	300	357	657	120	291	23	8	295	84	-12	+0	+0	+7	+18	1.4
2035	28	MLB	ATL	55%	633	576	136	22	3	13	49	144	3	12	5	236	299	352	652	116	291	23	8	294	83	-12	+0	-1	+7	+18	1.3
2036	29	MLB	ATL	58%	621	565	133	21	3	13	48	142	3	11	5	235	299	352	651	117	290	23	8	292	82	-13	+0	-1	+7	+18	1.1
2037	30	MLB	ATL	60%	610	555	130	21	3	12	47	141	3	10	5	234	298	348	645	114	290	23	8	290	80	-14	+0	-2	+7	+17	0.8
2038	31	MLB	ATL	62%	595	541	125	20	3	11	46	140	3	10	4	231	295	340	635	109	288	24	8	286	77	-15	+0	-3	+6	+17	0.6
2039	32	MLB	ATL	63%	577	525	119	19	2	10	44	138	3	9	4	227	290	328	618	101	285	24	8	281	73	-18	+0	-4	+6	+16	0.2
2040	33	MLB	ATL	63%	547	498	110	17	2	9	42	133	2	8	4	221	284	317	601	96	281	24	8	274	68	-20	+0	-4	+6	+15	-0.3
2027	20	MLB	ATL	34%	175	160	36	6	1	2	12	42	1	4	2	225	283	312	596	87	288	24	7	262	58	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	ATL	48%	260	239	55	9	1	4	18	61	1	6	3	230	287	326	613	96	289	23	7	273	67	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2029	22	MLB	ATL	54%	315	287	68	11	2	6	23	73	2	7	3	237	298	352	650	115	290	23	7	281	74	-9	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2030	23	MLB	ATL	57%	346	316	75	12	2	7	25	79	2	7	3	237	297	354	652	117	291	23	7	286	77	-9	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2031	24	MLB	ATL	57%	356	325	78	13	2	7	26	81	2	7	3	240	300	357	657	117	292	23	7	289	79	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2032	25	MLB	ATL	57%	361	329	79	13	2	8	27	81	2	7	3	240	302	365	666	125	292	22	7	290	80	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2033	26	MLB	ATL	56%	363	331	80	13	2	8	27	82	2	7	3	242	303	366	668	124	291	23	7	291	81	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2034	27	MLB	ATL	55%	354	322	77	12	2	8	27	80	2	7	3	239	302	363	665	124	291	23	8	291	81	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2035	28	MLB	ATL	55%	347	315	75	12	2	7	27	79	2	6	3	238	302	356	658	117	291	23	8	290	80	-8	+0	-0	+4	+10	0.6
2036	29	MLB	ATL	58%	361	328	77	12	2	7	28	83	2	6	3	235	299	348	646	113	290	23	8	289	79	-9	+0	-1	+4	+10	0.5
2037	30	MLB	ATL	60%	368	335	79	13	2	7	28	85	2	6	3	236	299	349	648	113	290	23	8	286	77	-10	+0	-1	+4	+10	0.4
2038	31	MLB	ATL	62%	367	334	77	12	2	7	28	86	2	6	3	231	294	341	635	111	288	23	8	282	74	-11	+0	-2	+4	+10	0.2
2039	32	MLB	ATL	63%	362	329	76	12	2	7	28	86	2	5	3	231	295	343	639	112	285	24	8	277	70	-12	-0	-2	+4	+10	-0.0
2040	33	MLB	ATL	63%	347	315	70	11	1	6	27	85	2	5	2	222	288	321	608	98	281	24	8	271	66	-13	+0	-3	+4	+10	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4682	4266	1002	161	25	91	351	1083	26	86	40	235	297	348	645	113	292	23	7	284	75	-130	+1	-9	+50	+133	4.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	139	22	3	13	49	150	4	12	6	235	298	348	646	113	291	23	8	284	75	-18	+0	-1	+7	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	9065	8279	1910	306	42	161	668	2101	43	190	91	231	292	336	628	105	288	23	7	283	74	-262	+2	-15	+97	+257	8.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	137	22	3	12	48	151	3	14	7	231	291	338	630	108	288	23	7	283	74	-19	+0	-1	+7	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	165	144	36	7	1	1	21	16	0	9	6	250	345	333	679	83	276	10	13	314	98	-0	-1	—	—	+5	0.4
2025	18	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	135	119	28	4	0	0	12	32	0	4	1	235	303	269	572	34	311	24	9	261	58	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2025	18	ROK	FCL Braves	—	210	188	52	8	0	0	21	34	1	10	7	277	352	319	672	43	338	16	10	312	97	-1	-1	—	—	+6	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	5,003	91	94	233	291	341	+54	+27	5.5	5.2
	/162	664	12	12	233	291	341	+7.1	+3.6	0.7	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Mateo (OGILVIE)	19	45	20	50	35	214/263/281	67	291	3	23	27%	6%	44	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕James Beresford 2008 · A	19	47→57	34→30	49→45	43	221/267/269	48	287	2	10	23%	6%	46	-2.0	236/283/276	40	301	1	7	20%	6%	55	-1.4	277/309/327	49	326	1	6	15%	4%	75	+0.0
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	41→44	34→30	51→55	42	194/257/244	49	275	2	16	28%	6%	37	-2.6	213/312/258	45	291	1	19	24%	11%	66	-0.6	202/327/232	30	283	1	24	24%	14%	65	-0.3
✕Carlos Sepulveda 2016 · A	19	47→46	34→30	49→45	44	220/270/267	47	282	2	8	22%	6%	47	-1.9	238/286/293	55	298	2	5	19%	6%	60	-1.0	235/288/275	40	299	0	7	20%	6%	54	-0.8
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→30	54→50	47	207/264/281	74	251	3	14	19%	6%	50	-1.8	245/295/318	73	283	3	14	14%	5%	72	-0.2	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Jose Reyes 2018 · A	19	45	36→45	55	44	211/255/282	71	259	2	13	19%	5%	45	-2.1	226/279/325	99	265	7	15	17%	6%	66	-0.6	248/303/371	123	270	10	25	12%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Hancer Vargas 2008 · A	19	46	33→30	46→50	44	217/264/255	38	274	2	11	21%	6%	41	-2.3	209/256/264	55	271	3	11	22%	5%	41	-2.3	198/239/231	32	242	0	15	17%	4%	24	-0.9
✕Ayendy Perez 2013 · A	19	46	35→30	49→60	48	211/290/270	59	283	1	12	24%	8%	58	-1.2	228/291/287	59	290	1	24	20%	8%	62	-0.9	236/296/289	54	295	0	33	19%	7%	61	-0.4
✕Livan Soto 2019 · A	19	45→54	34→40	47→50	49	208/273/256	49	257	1	10	19%	8%	46	-2.0	189/245/250	61	247	4	9	23%	7%	33	-2.9	236/307/320	84	310	7	8	24%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Peterson Plaz 2018 · A	19	49	33→30	45→50	48	228/279/268	40	271	2	12	16%	6%	51	-1.7	231/284/288	57	282	3	9	18%	6%	59	-1.1	262/308/283	21	302	0	7	12%	5%	62	-0.2
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Manuel Falcon 2009 · A	19	47	33→30	46→50	44	220/269/265	45	275	1	10	20%	5%	46	-2.0	229/291/284	55	293	2	9	21%	7%	62	-0.9	243/316/276	33	309	0	10	19%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	44	37→40	49→55	42	207/263/283	75	275	4	12	25%	6%	50	-1.8	229/295/302	73	307	3	16	24%	7%	69	-0.4	262/328/337	75	341	2	29	22%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Jorge Ruiz 2023 · A	19	50→48	36→40	51→50	45	233/285/301	67	276	2	13	16%	5%	63	-0.8	224/276/298	74	287	4	12	22%	5%	59	-1.1	216/269/284	68	281	3	13	23%	5%	50	-1.3
✕Marco Soto 2023 · A	19	46	34→30	49→50	45	215/273/269	54	274	1	10	21%	6%	50	-1.7	191/246/248	57	273	3	7	29%	5%	33	-2.9	143/196/176	32	215	2	4	32%	4%	-7	-1.2
✕Mikey Edie 2016 · A	19	48	35→30	49→50	42	224/295/281	56	296	3	13	24%	5%	64	-0.8	212/267/270	58	314	2	15	31%	4%	48	-1.9	187/236/240	52	281	2	10	32%	3%	22	-1.4
●Rey Fuentes 2010 · A	19	46→56	37→40	48→60	39	218/256/291	74	280	4	11	24%	4%	48	-1.9	214/259/288	74	304	4	25	29%	5%	49	-1.8	274/321/368	94	353	8	33	23%	5%	91	+0.8
✕Rayneldy Rosario 2018 · A	20	46	34→30	48→55	40	217/262/264	47	287	2	17	24%	5%	43	-2.2	189/225/240	51	252	2	9	25%	4%	20	-3.8	160/187/191	31	210	1	7	24%	3%	-12	-1.6
✕Emmanuel Avila 2008 · A	19	43→53	35→45	50→45	45	199/268/263	64	272	2	8	26%	7%	47	-1.9	211/249/274	63	258	4	6	19%	4%	40	-2.4	268/309/352	83	293	9	4	12%	4%	85	+0.5
✕Jesus Baptista 2018 · A	19	43	34→30	47→55	46	202/268/252	50	255	2	9	21%	6%	44	-2.1	216/276/272	56	273	2	13	20%	7%	52	-1.6	227/285/258	31	278	0	21	17%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Juan Hernandez 2015 · A	19	48	34→30	49→55	48	224/282/268	44	273	2	13	18%	7%	53	-1.5	231/297/278	47	292	2	15	20%	8%	63	-0.9	239/311/278	39	297	2	17	18%	8%	64	-0.3