Juan Mateo

SS Augusta GreenJackets
Age 20 L/R 6'0" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1439ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKATL165.250/.345/.3331926—.167/.242/.227
202518A/ROKATL345.261/.333/.30001441—.210/.263/.238
202619AATL427.243/.321/.35162255—.210/.269/.299
2027PROJMLE20MLBATL537.215/.272/.28541258-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBATL128.221/.280/.3071366-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBATL203.226/.287/.32535730.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
K%79
Whiff%73
Z-Con%62
Speed58
ISO38
wRC+37
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 79%
CompsDarrien Miller (age 20) · Luis Durango (age 20) · Freizer Pedron (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†58
AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .269 / .282
PA210
HR2
SB5
K%22
BB%7
ISO70
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -10.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-11BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.20.30.40.40.40.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER20
scouting grade only
EYE35
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.5M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.4$0.9M+$0.5M
2035Arb-1$2M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-2$2M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Arb-3$1M———
Totals $3M $4M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Braves — 165144 36711 21160 96 250345333679 83276 1013 314 26 — — — — — —
202518 AAugusta GreenJackets — 135119 28400 12320 41 235303269572 34311 249 261 37 — — — — — —
202518 ROKFCL Braves — 210188 52800 21341 107 277352319672 43338 1610 312 44 — — — — — —
202619 AAugusta GreenJackets — 427382 931736 44780 2211 243321351672 107292 1810 306 55 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 165150 25411 15190 96 167242227469 60179 129 206 26 — — — — — —
202518 A MLEAugusta GreenJackets — 135123 25300 9440 41 203258228485 24295 337 223 37 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Braves — 210196 42600 13501 107 214267245512 31290 246 233 44 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEAugusta GreenJackets — 427395 831435 321060 2211 210269299568 89271 257 249 55 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 165150 25411 15190 96 167242227469 60185 129 206 26 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Braves — 165144 36711 21160 96 250345333679 83276 1013 314 26 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLE2 teams — 345319 67900 22941 148 210263238501 28294 276 229 41 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAW2 teams — 345307 801200 33661 148 261333300633 39328 1910 292 41 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEAugusta GreenJackets — 427395 831435 321060 2211 210269299568 89275 257 249 55 — — — — — —
202619 A RAWAugusta GreenJackets — 427382 931736 44780 2211 243321351672 107292 1810 306 55 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 165149 25411 15190 96 168242228471 60179 129 206 26 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLE2 teams — 345319 67900 22941 148 210263238501 28292 276 229 41 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEAugusta GreenJackets — 427392 831435 321060 2211 212269301570 89271 257 249 55 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 165149 25411 15190 96 168242228471 60179 129 206 26 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLE2 teams — 345319 67900 22941 148 210263238501 28292 276 229 41 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEAugusta GreenJackets — 427392 831435 321060 2211 212269301570 89271 257 249 55 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEATL 0% 537493 1061824 381201 126 215272285556 70273 227 254 58 -27 +0 +0 +6 +12 -0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEATL 34% 372341 751324 27811 94 221280307586 86275 227 266 66 -15 +0 +0 +4 +8 -0.3
202922 MLB MLEATL 48% 418383 861526 31901 104 226287325612 99277 227 276 73 -13 +0 +0 +4 +9 0.0
203023 MLB MLEATL 54% 466426 981728 35992 104 230291338629 108278 218 283 78 -12 +0 +0 +5 +10 0.3
203124 MLB MLEATL 55% 517470 10919210 401092 115 232295346641 114280 218 288 81 -12 +0 +0 +6 +11 0.5
203225 MLB MLEATL 56% 578526 12321312 451222 125 234297351647 117280 218 291 83 -12 +0 +0 +6 +13 0.7
203326 MLB MLEATL 56% 596543 12722312 461262 125 233297350647 117280 218 290 83 -12 +0 +0 +6 +13 0.8
203427 MLB MLEATL 55% 594541 12722312 461262 115 232296348644 115280 218 289 82 -13 +0 +0 +6 +13 0.7
203528 MLB MLEATL 55% 583531 12221211 451252 105 231294343637 113279 218 287 80 -14 +0 -1 +6 +13 0.4
203629 MLB MLEATL 58% 566515 11720210 441232 85 228291338629 109278 228 283 78 -15 -0 -1 +6 +12 0.2
203730 MLB MLEATL 60% 552503 11319210 421222 75 226288330618 105276 228 279 75 -17 -1 -2 +6 +12 -0.1
202821 MLB CTXATL 34% 128118 25411 9280 31 221280307586 86275 227 266 66 -5 +0 +0 +1 +3 -0.1
202922 MLB CTXATL 48% 203185 42713 15441 52 226287325612 99277 227 276 73 -7 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.0
203023 MLB CTXATL 54% 253231 53915 19541 62 230291338629 108278 218 283 78 -7 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.2
203124 MLB CTXATL 55% 287262 611016 22611 63 232295346641 114280 218 288 81 -7 +0 +0 +3 +6 0.3
203225 MLB CTXATL 56% 324295 691217 25691 73 234297351647 117280 218 291 83 -7 +0 +0 +3 +7 0.4
203326 MLB CTXATL 56% 335305 721227 26711 73 233297350647 117280 218 290 83 -7 +0 +0 +4 +7 0.4
203427 MLB CTXATL 55% 329299 701217 26701 63 232296348644 115280 218 289 82 -7 +0 +0 +4 +7 0.4
203528 MLB CTXATL 55% 320291 671216 25691 53 231294343637 113279 228 287 80 -8 -0 -0 +3 +7 0.2
203629 MLB CTXATL 58% 328299 681216 25711 53 228291338629 109278 228 283 78 -9 -0 -1 +4 +7 0.1
203730 MLB CTXATL 60% 332303 691216 25731 43 226288330618 105276 228 279 75 -10 -0 -1 +4 +7 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 28392588 5961021154 2176109 5426 230292341633 111279 218 285 73 -72 +0 -2 +30 +62 1.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650593 13623312 501402 126 229292339631 110279 228 285 73 -16 +0 -1 +7 +14 0.4
Career— MLE — 63895836 131422328103 485138919 15074 225287326613 101277 228 276 73 -146 +1 -4 +58 +118 2.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650594 13423310 491412 158 226287325612 99278 228 276 73 -17 +0 -1 +7 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 427 PAwOBA .298 → .249 (−49)K% 18.3% → 24.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.27%÷1.000×1.360——24.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.30%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0457.43%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0450.00%
Singles /BIP22.04%÷1.000×0.920×0.989×1.04520.96%
Doubles /BIP5.59%÷1.000×0.830×0.989×1.0454.80%
Triples /BIP0.99%÷1.000×0.910×0.989×1.0450.93%
Home runs /BIP1.97%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0451.65%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .298 → .249; ISO .107 → .088; BABIP .292 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Braves · 210 PAwOBA .304 → .233 (−71)K% 16.2% → 23.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.19%÷0.980×1.440——23.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷1.013×0.620—×1.0226.26%
HBP% /PA0.48%—×0.720—×1.0220.35%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷1.005×0.820×1.046×1.02224.94%
Doubles /BIP5.19%÷0.996×0.720×1.046×1.0224.02%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×1.046×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.856×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .304 → .233; ISO .043 → .031; BABIP .338 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 135 PAwOBA .260 → .223 (−38)K% 23.7% → 32.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.70%÷0.984×1.360——32.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.89%÷0.985×0.690—×1.0506.54%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP27.59%÷1.030×0.920×1.021×1.05026.41%
Doubles /BIP4.60%÷0.977×0.830×1.021×1.0504.19%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.037×0.910×1.021×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.281×0.800—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .260 → .223; ISO .034 → .029; BABIP .311 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Braves · 165 PAwOBA .306 → .206 (−100)K% 9.7% → 11.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.70%÷1.029×1.220——11.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.73%÷0.986×0.700—×1.0229.24%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×1.0220.00%
Singles /BIP21.09%÷0.996×0.680×0.971×1.02214.30%
Doubles /BIP5.47%÷1.042×0.600×0.971×1.0223.13%
Triples /BIP0.78%÷1.150×0.600×0.971×1.0220.40%
Home runs /BIP0.78%÷0.871×0.470—×1.0220.43%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .306 → .206; ISO .083 → .047; BABIP .276 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).