Anderdson Rojas
2B Reno Aces| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | AARI | 446 | .246/.320/.354 | 5 | 34 | 63 | — | .222/.281/.316 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ARI | 474 | .232/.311/.300 | 1 | 19 | 51 | — | .218/.274/.279 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA/AAARI | 536 | .263/.331/.349 | 6 | 21 | 75 | — | .267/.317/.342 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 23 | MLBARI | 21 | .229/.280/.304 | 0 | 1 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 24 | MLBARI | 166 | .233/.286/.322 | 2 | 5 | 67 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 25 | MLBARI | 239 | .236/.290/.334 | 3 | 7 | 72 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 168 | 148 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 209 | 299 | 277 | 576 | 68 | 261 | 20 | 8 | 269 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | — | 168 | 155 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 310 | 355 | 439 | 794 | 129 | 351 | 13 | 5 | 349 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 419 | 393 | 98 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 69 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 249 | 287 | 346 | 633 | 97 | 295 | 16 | 3 | 281 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 446 | 395 | 97 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 74 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 246 | 320 | 354 | 674 | 109 | 286 | 17 | 8 | 301 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 474 | 413 | 96 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 76 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 232 | 311 | 300 | 611 | 68 | 278 | 16 | 10 | 275 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 465 | 408 | 107 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 81 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 262 | 324 | 348 | 672 | 86 | 316 | 17 | 7 | 293 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 71 | 59 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 271 | 377 | 356 | 733 | 85 | 349 | 21 | 13 | 330 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 168 | 152 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 138 | 216 | 184 | 400 | 46 | 179 | 24 | 5 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 168 | 158 | 38 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 241 | 277 | 342 | 619 | 101 | 283 | 19 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 419 | 396 | 85 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 92 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 215 | 249 | 301 | 549 | 86 | 267 | 22 | 2 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 446 | 405 | 90 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 100 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 222 | 281 | 316 | 597 | 94 | 273 | 22 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 474 | 427 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 102 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 218 | 274 | 279 | 553 | 61 | 268 | 22 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 465 | 417 | 111 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 97 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 266 | 312 | 341 | 653 | 74 | 317 | 21 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 71 | 62 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 274 | 348 | 355 | 703 | 81 | 346 | 25 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 168 | 152 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 138 | 216 | 184 | 400 | 46 | 179 | 24 | 5 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 168 | 148 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 209 | 299 | 277 | 576 | 68 | 261 | 20 | 8 | 269 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 168 | 158 | 38 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 241 | 277 | 342 | 619 | 101 | 291 | 19 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs Red | — | 168 | 155 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 310 | 355 | 439 | 794 | 129 | 351 | 13 | 5 | 349 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 419 | 396 | 85 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 92 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 215 | 249 | 301 | 549 | 86 | 272 | 22 | 2 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 419 | 393 | 98 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 69 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 249 | 287 | 346 | 633 | 97 | 295 | 16 | 3 | 281 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 446 | 405 | 90 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 100 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 222 | 281 | 316 | 597 | 94 | 280 | 22 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 446 | 395 | 97 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 74 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 246 | 320 | 354 | 674 | 109 | 286 | 17 | 8 | 301 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 474 | 427 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 102 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 218 | 274 | 279 | 553 | 61 | 279 | 22 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | Hillsboro Hops | — | 474 | 413 | 96 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 76 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 232 | 311 | 300 | 611 | 68 | 278 | 16 | 10 | 275 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 536 | 480 | 127 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 116 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 265 | 313 | 340 | 653 | 75 | 339 | 22 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 536 | 467 | 123 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 96 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 263 | 331 | 349 | 680 | 86 | 320 | 18 | 8 | 298 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs 1 | — | 168 | 151 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 139 | 216 | 185 | 401 | 46 | 179 | 24 | 5 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 168 | 158 | 38 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 241 | 277 | 342 | 619 | 101 | 283 | 19 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 419 | 398 | 85 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 92 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 214 | 249 | 299 | 548 | 85 | 267 | 22 | 2 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 446 | 410 | 90 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 100 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 220 | 281 | 312 | 593 | 93 | 273 | 22 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 474 | 438 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 102 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 212 | 274 | 272 | 546 | 59 | 268 | 22 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 536 | 497 | 127 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 116 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 256 | 313 | 328 | 641 | 72 | 321 | 22 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 446 | 410 | 90 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 100 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 220 | 281 | 312 | 593 | 93 | 273 | 22 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 474 | 438 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 102 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 212 | 274 | 272 | 546 | 59 | 268 | 22 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 536 | 497 | 127 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 116 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 256 | 313 | 328 | 641 | 72 | 321 | 22 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | ARI | 10% | 612 | 566 | 127 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 126 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 223 | 274 | 292 | 567 | 70 | 276 | 21 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -29 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +13 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | ARI | 10% | 21 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 280 | 304 | 584 | 75 | 284 | 19 | 5 | 264 | 60 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | ARI | 35% | 479 | 443 | 101 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 98 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 228 | 281 | 312 | 592 | 84 | 277 | 20 | 6 | 268 | 67 | -19 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | ARI | 46% | 516 | 475 | 109 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 105 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 230 | 285 | 324 | 609 | 94 | 278 | 20 | 6 | 275 | 72 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | ARI | 52% | 537 | 493 | 114 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 110 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 232 | 288 | 331 | 619 | 100 | 279 | 20 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | ARI | 53% | 545 | 500 | 116 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 113 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 231 | 288 | 332 | 621 | 101 | 279 | 21 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | ARI | 54% | 545 | 499 | 115 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 115 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 230 | 288 | 332 | 619 | 101 | 279 | 21 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -16 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +12 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | ARI | 53% | 536 | 492 | 111 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 114 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 228 | 285 | 325 | 610 | 98 | 277 | 21 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +12 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | ARI | 35% | 166 | 154 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 233 | 286 | 322 | 609 | 89 | 286 | 20 | 6 | 274 | 67 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | ARI | 46% | 239 | 220 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 49 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 236 | 290 | 334 | 625 | 98 | 287 | 21 | 6 | 281 | 72 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | ARI | 52% | 278 | 256 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 57 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 237 | 293 | 341 | 634 | 104 | 287 | 21 | 6 | 285 | 75 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | ARI | 53% | 289 | 266 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 237 | 293 | 342 | 636 | 105 | 287 | 21 | 7 | 285 | 75 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | ARI | 54% | 292 | 268 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 61 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 236 | 293 | 341 | 634 | 105 | 287 | 21 | 7 | 285 | 75 | -9 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | ARI | 53% | 282 | 259 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 233 | 290 | 335 | 625 | 101 | 286 | 21 | 7 | 281 | 72 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1546 | 1423 | 336 | 59 | 9 | 23 | 101 | 321 | 11 | 40 | 11 | 236 | 292 | 339 | 631 | 103 | 288 | 21 | 7 | 283 | 66 | -49 | +4 | -1 | +6 | +33 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 142 | 25 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 135 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 237 | 293 | 343 | 636 | 105 | 289 | 21 | 6 | 283 | 66 | -21 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5579 | 5114 | 1164 | 190 | 33 | 64 | 334 | 1180 | 49 | 193 | 65 | 228 | 281 | 315 | 597 | 88 | 282 | 21 | 6 | 265 | 66 | -112 | +6 | -2 | +12 | +73 | -2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 135 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 137 | 6 | 22 | 8 | 227 | 281 | 312 | 593 | 86 | 281 | 21 | 6 | 265 | 66 | -22 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAReno Aces · 465 PAwOBA .286 → .276 (−10)K% 17.4% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.42% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 26.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .286 → .276; ISO .086 → .076; BABIP .316 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 71 PAwOBA .317 → .298 (−19)K% 21.1% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.13% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 8.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 29.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 4.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .317 → .298; ISO .085 → .077; BABIP .349 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 474 PAwOBA .271 → .244 (−28)K% 16.0% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.03% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 21.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.92% | ÷1.044 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.66% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 20.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.64% | ÷0.908 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.30% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 0.26% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 100, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .271 → .244; ISO .068 → .063; BABIP .278 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 446 PAwOBA .297 → .261 (−36)K% 16.6% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.59% | ÷1.009 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.30% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.81% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 21.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 4.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.87% | ÷0.965 | ×0.910 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.102 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.16% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 93, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .297 → .261; ISO .109 → .094; BABIP .286 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 419 PAwOBA .276 → .235 (−40)K% 16.5% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.47% | ÷1.019 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.10% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 2.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.91% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.60% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×1.045 | 19.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.17% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.045 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | ×1.045 | 1.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.003 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.51% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .276 → .235; ISO .097 → .084; BABIP .295 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL D-backs Red · 168 PAwOBA .344 → .261 (−83)K% 13.1% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.10% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.969 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 3.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.56% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | ×0.988 | ×1.022 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.77% | ÷0.974 | ×0.720 | ×0.988 | ×1.022 | 5.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.01% | ÷0.964 | ×0.720 | ×0.988 | ×1.022 | 2.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.54% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 93, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .344 → .261; ISO .129 → .093; BABIP .351 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL D-backs 1 · 168 PAwOBA .265 → .179 (−85)K% 19.6% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.64% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.74% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷0.996 | ×0.680 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 15.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.61% | ÷0.967 | ×0.600 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 1.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷0.911 | ×0.600 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.936 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.45% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 82, K 99, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .265 → .179; ISO .068 → .041; BABIP .261 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).