Andy Perez

SS Hartford Yard Goats

Age 23 L/R 6'3" / 165 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#620ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+/ACOL	544	.284/.321/.421	10	20	75	—	.253/.279/.366
2025	21	A+/ACOL	532	.264/.305/.385	9	22	57	—	.228/.261/.333
2026	22	AA/INTL2 orgs	614	.285/.328/.405	9	34	94	—	.285/.311/.386
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCOL	4	.248/.277/.358	0	0	67	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBCOL	156	.253/.285/.375	3	4	73	0.1
2029PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBCOL	239	.255/.289/.386	5	6	77	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%91

Whiff%89

Z-Con%86

Speed65

wRC+42

wOBA41

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 68%

CompsJason Pridie (age 23) · Sean Godfrey (age 24) · Collin Burns (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .277 / .358

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%3

BABIP296

ISO100

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	198	175	51	5	3	0	13	26	2	11	7	291	347	354	702	63	331	13	7	307	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	250	222	67	11	2	2	11	35	3	11	8	302	342	396	738	95	335	14	4	314	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	502	465	114	16	7	1	17	74	8	21	11	245	283	316	599	71	285	15	3	265	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Spokane Indians	—	66	62	14	3	0	1	1	14	1	5	0	226	250	323	573	97	277	21	2	249	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	478	442	129	22	7	9	24	64	2	15	6	292	330	434	765	143	319	13	5	332	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	483	447	121	26	3	7	24	81	5	19	4	271	314	389	704	119	316	17	5	311	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	49	46	9	1	0	2	1	13	0	3	0	196	213	348	561	152	219	27	2	236	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	559	519	148	30	2	9	25	89	3	27	9	285	321	403	723	118	329	16	4	317	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	55	46	13	3	2	0	8	12	1	7	1	283	400	435	835	152	382	22	15	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	198	178	37	3	2	0	10	30	2	11	7	208	258	247	505	39	232	15	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	250	226	45	7	1	1	8	40	3	11	8	199	236	252	488	53	215	16	3	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	502	470	108	14	7	1	13	102	8	21	11	230	263	296	558	66	278	20	3	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	66	63	12	2	0	1	0	19	1	5	0	190	203	270	473	79	254	29	0	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	478	451	118	18	7	7	16	86	2	15	6	262	290	379	669	118	297	18	3	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	483	455	106	22	3	6	17	109	5	19	4	233	268	334	602	101	287	23	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	49	46	8	1	0	2	1	19	0	3	0	174	191	326	518	152	195	39	2	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	559	529	151	28	2	7	17	108	3	27	9	285	311	386	697	100	339	19	3	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	198	178	37	3	2	0	10	30	2	11	7	208	258	247	505	39	242	15	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	198	175	51	5	3	0	13	26	2	11	7	291	347	354	702	63	331	13	7	307	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	250	226	45	7	1	1	8	40	3	11	8	199	236	252	488	53	227	16	3	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	250	222	67	11	2	2	11	35	3	11	8	302	342	396	738	95	335	14	4	314	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	502	470	108	14	7	1	13	102	8	21	11	230	263	296	558	66	286	20	3	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	502	465	114	16	7	1	17	74	8	21	11	245	283	316	599	71	285	15	3	265	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	544	514	130	20	7	8	16	105	3	20	6	253	280	366	645	113	299	19	3	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	544	504	143	25	7	10	25	78	3	20	6	284	321	421	741	137	314	14	5	322	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	501	113	23	3	7	18	127	5	22	4	226	260	325	585	100	286	24	3	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	532	493	130	27	3	9	25	94	5	22	4	264	305	385	691	122	308	18	5	304	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	614	581	166	31	2	8	19	119	4	34	10	286	313	387	700	102	346	19	3	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	614	565	161	33	4	9	33	101	4	34	10	285	328	405	733	120	333	16	5	322	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	198	184	37	3	2	0	10	30	2	11	7	201	258	239	497	38	232	15	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	250	237	45	7	1	1	8	40	3	11	8	190	236	241	477	51	215	16	3	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	502	476	108	14	7	1	13	102	8	21	11	227	263	292	555	65	278	20	3	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	544	520	130	20	7	8	16	105	3	20	6	250	280	362	641	112	292	19	3	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	504	113	23	3	7	18	127	5	22	4	224	260	323	583	99	279	24	3	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	614	586	166	31	2	8	19	119	4	34	10	283	313	384	697	101	339	19	3	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	544	520	130	20	7	8	16	105	3	20	6	250	280	362	641	112	292	19	3	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	504	113	23	3	7	18	127	5	22	4	224	260	323	583	99	279	24	3	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	614	586	166	31	2	8	19	119	4	34	10	283	313	384	697	101	339	19	3	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	2%	648	618	147	28	3	9	21	128	4	17	5	237	267	335	602	98	283	20	3	267	67	-25	+1	+1	+7	+14	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	248	277	358	635	109	296	25	0	281	67	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	31%	504	478	115	22	2	9	18	99	3	12	3	241	273	351	624	110	285	20	4	277	73	-16	+1	+1	+5	+11	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	45%	537	507	123	23	3	10	21	106	4	13	4	243	278	360	638	117	286	20	4	283	77	-14	+1	+2	+6	+12	0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	51%	560	528	129	24	3	12	23	111	4	13	4	243	280	365	645	121	286	20	4	286	80	-14	+1	+2	+6	+12	0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	53%	569	535	131	25	3	12	25	115	4	13	4	243	282	365	646	122	286	20	4	287	80	-13	+1	+2	+6	+12	0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	53%	568	533	129	24	3	12	26	116	4	12	4	241	282	363	644	121	285	20	5	286	80	-14	+1	+1	+6	+12	0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	558	524	125	24	2	11	25	116	4	12	4	239	279	357	636	118	284	21	4	282	77	-15	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	52%	547	515	121	23	2	10	24	115	3	11	4	236	276	350	625	113	283	21	4	278	74	-17	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	31%	156	148	37	7	1	3	6	31	1	4	1	253	285	375	660	122	298	20	4	291	73	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	45%	239	226	58	11	2	5	9	47	2	6	2	255	289	386	675	131	299	20	4	298	77	-6	+0	+1	+3	+5	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	51%	285	269	69	13	2	7	12	57	2	7	2	256	292	391	683	136	299	20	4	301	80	-7	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	53%	299	282	71	13	2	7	13	60	2	7	2	255	293	391	684	136	299	20	4	302	80	-7	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	53%	303	284	72	13	2	7	14	62	2	7	2	253	293	389	682	136	298	20	5	301	80	-7	+1	+1	+3	+7	0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	293	276	70	13	2	7	13	61	2	6	2	251	290	382	672	131	297	21	4	297	77	-8	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	52%	285	268	66	12	2	6	13	60	2	6	2	248	286	374	661	126	296	21	5	292	74	-9	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1860	1753	443	82	13	42	80	378	13	43	13	253	290	386	677	133	299	20	4	298	72	-49	+3	+3	+20	+40	1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	613	156	29	5	15	28	132	5	15	5	254	293	392	685	137	301	20	4	298	72	-17	+1	+1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	6693	6290	1520	272	41	104	253	1343	52	210	75	242	277	348	624	106	289	20	4	274	72	-111	+7	+7	+43	+88	3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	611	147	26	4	10	25	130	5	20	7	241	276	345	621	105	288	20	4	274	72	-18	+1	+1	+7	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 559 PAwOBA .308 → .301 (−8)K% 15.9% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.92%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	19.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.29%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	3.13%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.48%
Singles /BIP	24.88%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.042	26.41%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.050	×1.042	6.56%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.050	×1.042	0.48%
Home runs /BIP	2.09%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	1.70%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .308 → .301; ISO .118 → .105; BABIP .329 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Spokane Indians · 483 PAwOBA .304 → .259 (−45)K% 16.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.77%	÷1.005	×1.350	—	—	22.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.97%	÷1.030	×0.710	—	×1.027	3.52%
HBP% /PA	1.04%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.86%
Singles /BIP	23.22%	÷1.068	×0.910	×1.047	×1.027	21.27%
Doubles /BIP	7.10%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.047	×1.027	6.33%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷0.900	×0.820	×1.047	×1.027	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	1.91%	÷0.999	×0.830	—	×1.027	1.63%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 114, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .304 → .259; ISO .119 → .101; BABIP .316 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 49 PAwOBA .234 → .189 (−45)K% 26.5% → 37.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.53%	÷0.951	×1.360	—	—	37.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.04%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×1.015	1.30%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.022	×0.920	—	×1.015	16.62%
Doubles /BIP	3.03%	÷1.055	×0.830	—	×1.015	2.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.06%	÷0.870	×0.800	—	×1.015	5.66%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 103, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .234 → .189; ISO .152 → .126; BABIP .219 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 478 PAwOBA .328 → .289 (−39)K% 13.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.39%	÷1.011	×1.360	—	—	18.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.02%	÷1.064	×0.690	—	×1.030	3.36%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.34%
Singles /BIP	24.07%	÷1.015	×0.920	×1.025	×1.030	23.03%
Doubles /BIP	5.82%	÷1.081	×0.830	×1.025	×1.030	4.72%
Triples /BIP	1.85%	÷0.900	×0.910	×1.025	×1.030	1.98%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷1.002	×0.800	—	×1.030	1.96%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 103, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .328 → .289; ISO .143 → .123; BABIP .319 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 66 PAwOBA .235 → .202 (−33)K% 21.2% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.21%	÷0.996	×1.350	—	—	28.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.106	×0.710	—	×1.042	0.00%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.810	—	×1.042	1.28%
Singles /BIP	20.83%	÷0.999	×0.910	×1.011	×1.042	20.00%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.098	×0.830	×1.011	×1.042	4.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.907	×0.820	×1.011	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.08%	÷1.086	×0.830	—	×1.042	1.66%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 81, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .235 → .202; ISO .097 → .074; BABIP .277 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 502 PAwOBA .262 → .242 (−20)K% 14.7% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.74%	÷0.987	×1.360	—	—	20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.39%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×1.045	2.56%
HBP% /PA	1.59%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.30%
Singles /BIP	23.02%	÷0.988	×0.920	×1.012	×1.045	22.68%
Doubles /BIP	4.09%	÷0.946	×0.830	×1.012	×1.045	3.80%
Triples /BIP	1.79%	÷0.941	×0.910	×1.012	×1.045	1.83%
Home runs /BIP	0.26%	÷1.186	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.18%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 97, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .262 → .242; ISO .071 → .066; BABIP .285 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Rockies · 250 PAwOBA .317 → .215 (−102)K% 14.0% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.00%	÷1.070	×1.220	—	—	15.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.40%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×1.008	3.21%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.85%
Singles /BIP	27.81%	÷1.043	×0.680	×0.992	×1.008	18.13%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.990	×0.600	×0.992	×1.008	3.56%
Triples /BIP	1.07%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.992	×1.008	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	1.07%	÷1.233	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.41%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 114, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .317 → .215; ISO .095 → .056; BABIP .335 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Rockies · 198 PAwOBA .307 → .226 (−81)K% 13.1% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.13%	÷1.055	×1.220	—	—	15.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.57%	÷0.951	×0.700	—	×1.022	4.94%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.72%
Singles /BIP	28.86%	÷1.033	×0.680	×1.044	×1.022	20.28%
Doubles /BIP	3.36%	÷0.968	×0.600	×1.044	×1.022	2.22%
Triples /BIP	2.01%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.044	×1.022	1.43%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.078	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 111, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .307 → .226; ISO .063 → .046; BABIP .331 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Greg Gagne'83-'97 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,207 PA	9.3	6,207	111	108	249*	297*	394*	+65	+26	13.2	13.0
/162	664	12	12	+6.9	+2.8	1.4	pk7: 13
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Yuniesky Betancourtlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,278 PA	6.4	4,278	80	30	261	285	388	+41	-20	6.1	7.2
/162	664	12	5	+6.4	-3.1	0.9	pk7: 8
#4Angel Berroalast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,794 PA	4.2	2,794	46	50	259	303	375	+27	-6	6.7	7.1
/162	664	11	12	+6.5	-1.4	1.6	pk7: 7
#5Deivi Cruz'97-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,375 PA	6.6	4,375	70	16	258*	282*	376*	+44	+19	6.1	6.4
/162	664	11	2	+6.7	+2.9	0.9	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.8	1,865	37	42	242	277	360	+20	+3	2.5	2.5
/162	664	13	15	+7.1	+1.2	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andy Perez (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	235/265/332	97	283	3	5	20%	3%	67	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Pridie 2007 · AA	23	44→54	39→50	52→55	39	216/252/299	83	276	7	14	24%	4%	54	-2.0	244/275/370	126	307	10	19	23%	4%	80	-0.2	249/278/382	133	310	11	22	23%	3%	81	-0.1
✕Sean Godfrey 2016 · AA	24	48→47	40→45	50→55	37	233/260/328	95	292	7	15	23%	3%	63	-1.3	224/260/326	102	297	8	12	26%	4%	63	-1.3	213/237/330	117	294	8	8	30%	3%	51	-0.4
✕Collin Burns 2024 · AA	24	44	39→45	55	42	214/269/299	85	280	6	17	25%	6%	61	-1.5	205/262/287	82	281	6	16	28%	6%	56	-1.9	192/249/262	70	263	5	18	27%	5%	42	-1.8
✕Noel Cuevas 2015 · AA	23	45→52	42→45	54→55	41	222/264/330	109	282	9	16	24%	5%	66	-1.1	238/272/333	95	307	7	18	24%	3%	70	-0.9	254/287/363	108	316	8	12	22%	3%	80	-0.1
✕Raynel Delgado 2023 · AA	23	42→52	40	49→60	44	204/275/294	90	285	7	15	29%	7%	63	-1.4	234/300/330	96	324	8	23	28%	8%	80	-0.1	246/311/338	92	338	7	32	27%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Mason Williams 2015 · AA	23	48→53	39→45	49→55	47	228/274/316	88	267	6	14	17%	6%	66	-1.1	252/291/327	75	303	3	16	17%	5%	75	-0.5	247/291/368	121	302	13	7	22%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Leon Landry 2014 · AA	24	44→54	41→45	54→55	41	216/248/319	103	255	8	19	19%	4%	57	-1.8	222/257/317	95	261	7	19	17%	4%	60	-1.6	221/257/313	92	258	6	17	16%	4%	57	-1.2
✕Juan Perez 2015 · A	23	43→50	42→45	50→55	40	211/250/317	106	268	9	16	25%	5%	58	-1.7	218/261/316	98	282	8	17	25%	5%	61	-1.5	226/270/343	117	292	13	24	27%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Charlie Culberson 2012 · AA	23	46→54	42→45	50	36	227/259/329	102	296	9	12	26%	3%	64	-1.3	228/258/347	119	295	11	14	26%	3%	68	-1.0	253/299/420	167	321	18	9	26%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Kaleb Cowart 2015 · AA	23	45→53	41→45	51→50	43	219/269/314	95	283	8	16	25%	6%	65	-1.2	226/279/341	115	307	9	16	28%	6%	74	-0.5	232/288/356	124	312	10	17	28%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Drew Campbell 2021 · A	23	43→46	41→50	48→50	43	210/250/305	95	253	8	8	21%	5%	55	-1.9	227/264/353	126	294	14	11	27%	4%	72	-0.7	226/264/347	121	298	14	13	29%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Chad Sedio 2017 · A	23	43→51	40→45	55→30	40	205/262/303	98	269	5	10	25%	5%	60	-1.6	218/275/329	111	284	10	4	26%	4%	71	-0.8	216/277/322	106	288	9	1	27%	4%	69	-0.6
✕Cole Sturgeon 2016 · AA	24	46→50	38→45	47→50	40	222/255/299	78	276	5	10	22%	4%	55	-2.0	229/266/313	84	285	6	10	21%	4%	63	-1.4	234/279/330	96	303	9	12	25%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Omar Carrizales 2019 · AA	24	47→55	41→45	50→55	42	228/275/328	100	297	7	14	25%	6%	70	-0.9	203/253/289	86	284	6	10	29%	6%	53	-2.1	170/217/219	49	248	0	5	29%	5%	20	-1.8
✕Jordany Valdespin 2011 · AA	23	49→56	42→50	49→55	38	237/266/345	108	293	8	15	22%	3%	70	-0.8	256/292/393	137	305	14	24	21%	4%	92	+0.7	264/304/411	147	307	17	28	19%	4%	98	+0.7
✕Tzu-Wei Lin 2017 · AA	23	47→51	36→45	50	46	222/266/289	67	267	3	13	18%	6%	57	-1.8	236/286/336	100	301	7	11	22%	7%	76	-0.4	241/294/348	107	314	8	10	24%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Jermaine Palacios 2019 · AA	23	44→50	40→45	45→50	39	215/252/308	93	280	6	10	25%	4%	56	-1.9	208/258/299	91	281	8	13	28%	6%	57	-1.8	210/261/338	127	282	17	13	31%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Tyler Jones 2007 · A	23	44	39→40	54→55	38	213/247/297	84	268	6	15	23%	3%	52	-2.2	220/263/305	85	278	7	12	22%	5%	60	-1.6	222/266/303	81	274	7	13	21%	5%	58	-0.6
✕Nick Noonan 2011 · AA	22	46→52	40→45	50	41	224/264/316	92	286	7	10	24%	5%	63	-1.4	224/269/307	83	286	6	6	23%	6%	62	-1.4	222/257/303	81	298	5	4	26%	4%	54	-1.1
✕Keyber Rodriguez 2024 · AA	23	43→47	39→45	51→50	40	210/257/294	84	282	7	17	28%	5%	55	-1.9	213/256/306	93	278	8	14	25%	5%	58	-1.7	212/256/312	100	274	9	12	25%	5%	58	-1.4

Andy Perez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps