Oniel Diaz — OGILVIE

Oniel Diaz P DSL Reds

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 198 lbs ROK peak 0.6 · 2031

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 42 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 159151vR 143

ERA6.64

FIP6.64

K%10.0%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%-9.1%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	2	29	121	27	22	1	14%	2.1	15.2%	22.7%	-7.6%	1.0%	1.24	5.26	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	2	29	121	27	22	1	14%	2.1	15.2%	22.7%	-7.6%	1.0%	1.24	5.26	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	2	29	121	27	22	1	14%	2.1	22.3%	18.2%	4.1%	0.8%	1.24	3.96	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	14	10	42	218	32	42	3	71%	3.0	10.0%	24.1%	-14.1%	2.0%	6.91	6.38	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	14	10	42	218	32	42	3	71%	3.0	10.0%	24.1%	-14.1%	2.0%	6.91	6.38	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	14	10	42	218	32	42	3	71%	3.0	14.7%	19.3%	-4.6%	1.4%	6.91	5.52	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	12	56	237	42	21	3	86%	4.0	12.1%	11.1%	1.0%	1.8%	3.38	4.46	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	12	56	237	42	21	3	86%	4.0	12.1%	11.1%	1.0%	1.8%	3.38	4.46	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	12	56	237	42	21	3	86%	4.0	17.7%	8.9%	8.9%	1.3%	3.38	3.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CIN	8	8	42	177	18	34	5	100%	5.2	10.0%	19.1%	-9.1%	2.9%	6.64	6.64	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	53	223	30	37	6	100%	5.3	13.4%	16.8%	-3.3%	2.8%	6.18	6.03	-0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	55	232	36	36	6	100%	5.5	15.6%	15.3%	0.3%	2.8%	5.81	5.64	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	26	110	15	18	3	100%	5.2	13.4%	16.8%	-3.3%	2.8%	6.18	6.03	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	40	169	26	26	5	100%	5.7	15.6%	15.3%	0.3%	2.8%	5.81	5.64	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	13	66	279	41	44	8	100%	5.1	14.7%	15.9%	-1.1%	2.8%	5.96	5.41	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	844	124	133	24	100%	5.3	14.7%	15.9%	-1.1%	2.8%	5.96	5.41	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		42	24	127	576	69	106	10	57%	3.0	11.9%	18.4%	-6.5%	1.7%	4.05	5.35	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	38	200	909	108	168	15	57%	3.0	11.9%	18.4%	-6.5%	1.7%	4.05	5.35	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Oniel Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.64	10.0%	19.1%	2.9%	—	5.83	14.5%	-1.5%	108	-0.81	—	—	—
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	87
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	86
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	83
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	83
Adrian Acosta R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	19	SP-	6.02	7.9%	21.7%	1.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	120	83
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	83
Felipito Santos R 2019 · 7.57 FIP	20	SP-	7.57	4.3%	25.3%	3.0%	.358	5.32	13.7%	-5.9%	58	-2.25	4.83	106	82
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	82
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	81
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	81
Erick Reynoso R 2024 · 7.34 FIP	21	SP-	7.34	13.1%	22.6%	4.5%	.226	6.10	15.5%	-7.0%	107	-1.24	6.06	180	81
Alejandro Chavez R 2019 · 6.79 FIP	20	SP-	6.79	9.8%	20.4%	3.5%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	109	81
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	80
Edrick Agosto R 2017 · 6.67 FIP	20	SP-	6.67	11.4%	17.1%	4.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	113	80
Jesus Lafalaise R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	19	SP-	5.54	13.0%	22.7%	1.2%	.368	4.19	17.0%	2.6%	147	-1.35	3.53	172	78
Samuel Vásquez R 2021 · 6.05 FIP	21	SP-	6.05	11.2%	21.6%	2.1%	.353	5.15	16.0%	-2.8%	111	-0.90	4.01	273	78
Jatnk Diaz R 2024 · 7.33 FIP	19	SP-	7.33	12.1%	24.0%	4.0%	.318	5.06	13.9%	-0.8%	102	-2.27	4.97	117	77
Jhonly Taveras R 2024 · 6.59 FIP	19	SP	6.59	13.0%	27.1%	2.1%	.311	5.00	12.1%	-11.0%	34	-1.59	5.00	133	77
Justin Militello R 2024 · 5.52 FIP	20	SW	5.52	9.6%	19.9%	1.3%	.376	5.17	15.9%	-3.1%	82	-0.35	4.92	114	77
Diego Dugarte R 2024 · 7.15 FIP	21	SP-	7.15	11.3%	19.9%	4.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	114	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	50	13.3%	16.9%	1.10	6.17
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57