Justin Militello
P
FCL Braves
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%10.7%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Braves | 12 | 5 | 32 | 170 | 24 | 27 | 2 | 9.6% | 19.9% | 1.1% | 10.23 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 15 | 7 | 43 | 190 | 44 | 28 | 2 | 16.5% | 17.9% | 1.8% | 5.86 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | ATL | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 12 | 75 | 360 | 48 | 68 | 5 | 13.2% | 18.8% | 1.5% | 7.71 | 5.19 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 32 | 200 | 964 | 129 | 182 | 13 | 13.2% | 18.8% | 1.5% | 7.71 | 5.19 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Militello (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.28 | 23.3% | 13.5% | 106 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 94 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 93 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 91 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 91 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 91 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 91 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 90 |
| Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 90 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 90 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 90 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 90 |
| Hunter Dula R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 89 |
| Cole Gordon R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 89 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 89 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 88 |
| Will Kincanon R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.75 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.76 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 58 | +0.01 | 3.75 | 122 | 88 |
| Mason Fox R 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 6.61 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.02 | 3.59 | 112 | 88 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.66 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .256 | 2.89 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 42 | -1.77 | 2.89 | 119 | 88 |
| Zac Ryan R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .233 | 3.93 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.07 | 3.84 | 184 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||