Justin Militello

Justin Militello P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%18.7%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%1.6%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	12	5	32	170	24	27	2	42%	2.6	9.6%	19.9%	-10.3%	1.3%	10.23	5.52	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	12	5	32	170	24	27	2	42%	2.6	9.6%	19.9%	-10.3%	1.3%	10.23	5.52	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	12	5	32	170	24	27	2	42%	2.6	14.1%	15.9%	-1.8%	1.2%	10.23	4.96	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	43	190	44	28	2	47%	2.9	16.5%	17.9%	-1.4%	1.7%	5.86	4.92	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	43	190	44	28	2	47%	2.9	16.5%	17.9%	-1.4%	1.7%	5.86	4.92	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	7	43	190	44	28	2	47%	2.9	23.2%	14.7%	8.4%	1.1%	5.86	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	31	0	39	203	42	35	3	0%	1.3	15.3%	20.3%	-5.0%	1.9%	7.85	5.44	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	31	0	39	203	42	35	3	0%	1.3	15.3%	20.3%	-5.0%	1.9%	7.85	5.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	STL	31	0	39	203	42	35	3	0%	1.3	20.7%	17.2%	3.4%	1.5%	7.85	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	38	0	40	170	34	25	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.6%	5.6%	2.8%	5.29	5.16	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	19	0	20	84	17	12	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.6%	5.6%	2.8%	5.29	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	83	17	12	2	0%	1.0	20.2%	14.6%	5.6%	2.8%	5.29	4.78	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	121	20	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.6%	5.6%	2.8%	5.29	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		58	12	114	563	79	109	9	21%	2.0	14.0%	19.4%	-5.4%	1.7%	7.76	5.29	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	21	200	991	138	192	17	21%	2.0	14.0%	19.4%	-5.4%	1.7%	7.76	5.29	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Militello (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	18.7%	17.1%	2.8%	—	5.16	20.2%	5.6%	40	-0.46	—	—	—
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	88
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	86
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	85
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	85
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	84
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	84
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	84
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	84
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	84
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	84
Junior Montero R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	18.5%	15.8%	1.8%	.319	5.31	20.2%	-3.7%	32	+0.77	4.54	100	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	83
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	83
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	83
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	83
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	82
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	19.6%	15.5%	1.09	5.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77