Reiver Camacho — OGILVIE

Reiver Camacho P ACL Rockies

Age 19 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.5 · 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.10

FIP4.10

K%19.6%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$44M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$12M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	10	54	212	46	6	1	91%	4.9	14.8%	3.5%	11.2%	0.6%	2.33	2.61	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	10	54	212	46	6	1	91%	4.9	14.8%	3.5%	11.2%	0.6%	2.33	2.61	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	10	54	212	46	6	1	91%	4.9	21.7%	2.8%	18.9%	0.5%	2.33	1.97	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	10	3	33	136	33	6	2	30%	3.3	16.5%	5.5%	11.0%	2.1%	4.59	3.57	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	10	3	33	136	33	6	2	30%	3.3	16.5%	5.5%	11.0%	2.1%	4.59	3.57	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	10	3	33	136	33	6	2	30%	3.3	24.3%	4.4%	19.9%	1.5%	4.59	2.44	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	19	MLB	COL	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	2.0	19.6%	5.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.10	4.10	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	COL	7	7	51	215	44	12	6	100%	7.3	20.6%	5.6%	15.0%	2.8%	4.06	4.01	+0.5
2028	21	MLB MLE	COL	7	7	54	226	48	13	6	100%	7.7	21.2%	5.7%	15.6%	2.8%	4.00	3.94	+0.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	56	238	53	13	7	100%	7.0	22.2%	5.4%	16.8%	2.8%	3.89	3.80	+0.7
2030	23	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	58	247	57	13	7	100%	7.3	23.0%	5.2%	17.8%	2.7%	3.77	3.69	+0.9
2031	24	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	60	253	60	13	7	100%	7.5	23.5%	5.0%	18.6%	2.7%	3.66	3.59	+1.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	61	256	61	12	7	100%	7.6	23.9%	4.9%	19.1%	2.7%	3.59	3.54	+1.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	61	256	62	12	7	100%	7.6	24.1%	4.8%	19.3%	2.7%	3.55	3.52	+1.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	60	252	61	12	7	100%	7.5	24.1%	4.9%	19.2%	2.7%	3.55	3.56	+1.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	COL	3	3	25	106	22	6	3	100%	8.3	20.6%	5.6%	15.0%	3.3%	4.30	4.25	+0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	COL	5	5	39	165	35	9	5	100%	7.8	21.2%	5.7%	15.6%	3.2%	4.23	4.17	+0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	47	198	44	11	6	100%	7.8	22.2%	5.4%	16.8%	3.2%	4.12	4.03	+0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	52	220	50	11	7	100%	7.4	23.0%	5.2%	17.8%	3.1%	4.00	3.92	+0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	55	232	55	12	7	100%	7.9	23.5%	5.0%	18.6%	3.1%	3.88	3.81	+0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	57	241	58	12	7	100%	7.1	23.9%	4.9%	19.1%	3.1%	3.81	3.76	+1.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	58	245	59	12	8	100%	7.2	24.1%	4.8%	19.3%	3.1%	3.77	3.74	+1.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	57	241	58	12	8	100%	7.1	24.1%	4.9%	19.2%	3.1%	3.78	3.79	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	390	1648	381	84	52	100%	7.4	23.1%	5.1%	18.0%	3.1%	3.95	3.52	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		27	27	200	844	195	43	27	100%	7.4	23.1%	5.1%	18.0%	3.1%	3.95	3.52	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		21	13	87	348	54	15	4	62%	4.2	15.4%	4.3%	11.1%	1.2%	3.19	2.98	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	30	200	797	123	34	9	62%	4.2	15.4%	4.3%	11.1%	1.2%	3.19	2.98	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reiver Camacho (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	19.6%	5.4%	2.9%	—	3.91	21.4%	15.8%	161	-0.19	—	—	—
Angel Jimenez R 2022 · 3.24 FIP	19	SP-	3.24	20.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.257	3.41	21.3%	12.4%	99	+0.17	3.24	223	90
Andrew Sopko R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	17.4%	4.1%	2.9%	.282	3.97	16.6%	8.8%	353	+0.21	3.62	479	87
Tzu-Chen Sha R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	19	SP-	4.29	16.4%	4.3%	3.7%	.335	5.24	13.6%	5.5%	257	+0.95	4.21	309	85
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	82
Jose Romero R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	21.7%	5.2%	2.4%	.267	4.37	13.6%	5.6%	193	+1.13	3.24	235	82
Richard Guasch R 2018 · 2.94 FIP	20	SP-	2.94	20.0%	5.4%	1.5%	.267	4.67	21.0%	5.2%	134	+1.73	2.94	316	81
Breidy Encarnación R 2019 · 3.10 FIP	18	SP-	3.10	21.7%	7.7%	1.6%	.239	5.15	18.1%	3.6%	50	+2.05	3.10	164	81
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	80
Redinson Gomez R 2023 · 3.21 FIP	19	SW	3.21	18.4%	6.2%	1.6%	.273	4.33	17.9%	2.8%	39	+1.12	3.21	157	80
Zack Brown R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	21	SW	3.55	15.2%	3.3%	2.4%	.248	4.15	17.5%	7.7%	352	+0.60	3.46	490	80
Yoelvin Silven R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP-	3.94	17.7%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	4.89	17.9%	12.6%	88	+0.95	3.94	254	78
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	78
Tom de Blok R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	21	SW	3.87	17.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.285	4.70	13.0%	3.1%	213	+0.83	3.87	291	78
Abdiel Medina R 2021 · 3.56 FIP	19	SW	3.56	16.8%	5.8%	2.1%	.317	5.76	11.9%	0.9%	104	+2.20	3.56	191	78
Joshua Cornielly R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SW	3.47	17.5%	5.6%	2.1%	.377	6.01	18.2%	5.1%	47	+2.54	2.75	280	78
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	77
Ivan Oviedo R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	19	SW	3.78	17.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.294	4.84	20.7%	5.4%	67	+1.06	3.75	174	77
Delvin Capellan R 2018 · 4.88 FIP	19	SP-	4.88	16.8%	5.6%	4.5%	.359	4.50	17.6%	4.4%	34	-0.38	2.34	200	77
Scooter Hightower R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	21	SW	3.23	18.7%	4.4%	2.1%	.304	2.86	19.6%	14.6%	68	-0.37	2.86	160	77
Duque Hebbert R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	21	SP-	3.18	17.8%	4.8%	1.8%	.324	4.54	13.4%	6.1%	130	+1.36	3.18	168	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	54	22.8%	5.2%	1.06	3.77
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Dylan Floro ('24)	1.9	54	21.1%	7.2%	0.52	3.38
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57