Tzu-Chen Sha

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#445ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	AOAK	24	12	85	6.33	5.60	16.4%	6.9%	—	K 12.1% · BB 8.2% · FIP 6.25
2025	21	MIX2 levels	24	17	100	4.15	3.30	20.4%	7.0%	—	K 15.3% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.21
2026	22	A+OAK	25	11	72	8.71	4.66	16.8%	6.9%	—	K 12.9% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.48
2027PROJ	23	MLBOAK	—	—	0	5.00	5.00	13.9%	6.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBOAK	5	5	32	4.77	4.70	16.4%	6.6%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBOAK	7	7	46	4.61	4.54	17.9%	6.6%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control60Command60

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDustin McGowan (age 23) · Zach Miner (age 24) · Nick Trogrlic-Iverson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%13.9%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%7.1%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	7	52	225	53	8	6	50%	3.7	16.4%	4.3%	12.1%	3.7%	4.53	4.29	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	7	52	225	53	8	6	50%	3.7	23.6%	3.6%	20.0%	2.7%	4.53	3.02	—
2024	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	12	85	390	64	27	20	50%	3.6	12.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.7%	6.33	6.25	—
2024	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	12	85	390	64	27	20	50%	3.6	12.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.7%	6.33	6.25	—
2024	20	A RAW	Stockton Ports	24	12	85	390	64	27	20	50%	3.6	16.4%	6.9%	9.5%	5.1%	6.33	5.60	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	100	427	87	30	8	71%	4.2	15.3%	8.1%	7.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.21	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	100	427	87	30	8	71%	4.2	15.3%	8.1%	7.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.21	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	100	427	87	30	8	71%	4.2	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	1.9%	4.15	3.30	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	25	11	72	334	56	23	12	44%	2.9	12.9%	7.9%	5.0%	4.5%	8.71	5.48	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	25	11	72	334	56	23	12	44%	2.9	12.9%	7.9%	5.0%	4.5%	8.71	5.48	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	25	11	72	334	56	23	12	44%	2.9	16.8%	6.9%	9.9%	3.6%	8.71	4.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.9%	6.8%	7.1%	3.3%	5.00	5.00	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	74	314	51	21	10	100%	6.8	16.4%	6.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.81	4.74	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	69	292	52	19	9	100%	6.3	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.65	4.58	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	69	290	55	19	9	100%	6.9	18.9%	6.6%	12.2%	3.2%	4.55	4.50	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	67	281	53	19	9	100%	6.7	18.9%	6.7%	12.2%	3.3%	4.53	4.53	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	63	267	50	18	9	100%	6.3	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.4%	4.58	4.61	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	59	247	46	18	9	100%	6.5	18.6%	7.1%	11.5%	3.5%	4.68	4.74	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	58	245	50	16	9	100%	6.5	20.2%	6.6%	13.6%	3.7%	4.66	4.65	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	51	217	43	15	9	100%	6.4	19.8%	6.9%	12.9%	3.9%	4.78	4.85	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	OAK	5	5	32	135	22	9	4	100%	6.4	16.4%	6.6%	9.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.70	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	46	194	35	13	6	100%	6.6	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.61	4.54	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	54	228	43	15	7	100%	6.8	18.9%	6.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.51	4.46	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	57	241	46	16	8	100%	6.3	18.9%	6.7%	12.2%	3.2%	4.49	4.49	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	56	236	44	16	8	100%	6.2	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.53	4.56	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	53	224	42	16	8	100%	6.6	18.6%	7.1%	11.5%	3.4%	4.63	4.69	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	54	228	46	15	8	100%	6.8	20.2%	6.6%	13.6%	3.6%	4.61	4.60	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	48	203	40	14	8	100%	6.9	19.8%	6.9%	12.9%	3.9%	4.73	4.80	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	400	1689	318	114	57	100%	6.6	18.8%	6.8%	12.1%	3.4%	4.60	4.21	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	159	57	28	100%	6.6	18.8%	6.8%	12.1%	3.4%	4.60	4.21	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		87	47	309	1376	193	103	56	54%	3.6	14.0%	7.5%	6.5%	4.1%	5.88	5.11	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	30	200	891	125	66	36	54%	3.6	14.0%	7.5%	6.5%	4.1%	5.88	5.11	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 72 IPFIP 4.53 → 5.48 (+0.95)K% 16.8% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.77%	—	×0.770	12.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.89%	—	×1.150	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.53 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 50 IPFIP 4.94 → 5.97 (+1.03)K% 12.4% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.44%	—	×0.770	9.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.150	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷0.921	×1.250	4.22%

Result: FIP 4.94 → 5.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AStockton Ports · 50 IPFIP 1.47 → 2.26 (+0.79)K% 29.2% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.21%	—	×0.740	21.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.46%	—	×1.180	5.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.50%	÷1.113	×1.300	0.58%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 1.47 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 85 IPFIP 5.41 → 6.25 (+0.85)K% 16.4% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.41%	—	×0.740	12.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×1.180	8.17%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷1.164	×1.300	5.73%

Result: FIP 5.41 → 6.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AStockton Ports · 27 IPFIP 4.38 → 5.42 (+1.04)K% 12.3% → 9.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.30%	—	×0.740	9.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.10%	—	×1.180	4.84%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷0.945	×1.300	4.51%

Result: FIP 4.38 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Athletics · 25 IPFIP 1.42 → 2.95 (+1.53)K% 36.9% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.89%	—	×0.680	25.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.91%	—	×1.250	3.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷0.989	×1.400	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 1.42 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tzu-Chen Sha (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	13.9%	6.8%	3.3%	—	4.61	17.7%	11.1%	212	-0.39	—	—	—
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	90
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	87
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	85
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	84
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	83
Joe DeMers R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	13.6%	4.9%	3.5%	.329	3.98	10.6%	3.7%	72	-0.49	3.49	167	82
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	82
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	82
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Luke Young R 2024 · 5.51 FIP	22	SP-	5.51	13.7%	8.7%	4.5%	.284	5.05	17.0%	4.9%	116	-0.46	4.68	308	81
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	81
Chad Bettis R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	14.4%	8.7%	2.6%	.318	3.81	17.4%	10.4%	365	-0.57	3.67	672	81
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	81
Charlie Ruegger R 2019 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	10.6%	7.9%	4.0%	.325	4.60	16.2%	4.3%	72	-0.83	4.17	117	81
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	80
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	64	18.1%	6.7%	1.32	4.69
Gabe White ('05)	2.9	57	19.0%	5.9%	1.51	4.51
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*