Tzu-Chen Sha
P
Lansing Lugnuts
+0.8
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 165 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.8 · 2031
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.4%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%9.7%
IP100
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2031
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | A | Stockton Ports | 14 | 7 | 52 | 225 | 53 | 8 | 6 | 16.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 24 | 12 | 85 | 390 | 64 | 27 | 20 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.33 | 6.36 | -1.2 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 24 | 17 | 100 | 427 | 87 | 30 | 8 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.22 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 2 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 78 | 37 | 14 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 109 | 457 | 83 | 39 | 15 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 104 | 43 | 16 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 142 | 602 | 125 | 48 | 19 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 156 | 660 | 140 | 52 | 20 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 30 | 30 | 163 | 689 | 148 | 54 | 21 | 21.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.36 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 30 | 30 | 166 | 701 | 151 | 55 | 22 | 21.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.36 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 30 | 30 | 166 | 699 | 150 | 56 | 22 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 146 | 55 | 22 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 29 | 157 | 663 | 140 | 54 | 21 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 134 | 53 | 21 | 20.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 145 | 614 | 127 | 52 | 21 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 119 | 50 | 20 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 132 | 557 | 111 | 49 | 20 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 124 | 525 | 103 | 47 | 19 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 38 | 246 | 1078 | 155 | 78 | 43 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 4.98 | 5.01 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 31 | 200 | 878 | 126 | 64 | 35 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 4.98 | 5.01 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tzu-Chen Sha (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.46 | 20.7% | 12.6% | 422 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Wil Jensen R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.37 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | -0.01 | 3.50 | 368 | 94 |
| Osmer Morales R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .319 | 4.56 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 345 | +0.26 | 3.14 | 429 | 94 |
| Kyle Scott R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.25 | 3.94 | 138 | 94 |
| Grant Rogers R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.89 | 14.2% | 7.6% | 150 | -0.19 | 3.89 | 262 | 93 |
| Logan Workman R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.98 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.36 | 3.84 | 494 | 93 |
| Chris McMahon R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .330 | 5.28 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 85 | +1.32 | 3.96 | 199 | 92 |
| Colin Peluse R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.61 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.41 | 3.05 | 395 | 92 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .330 | 4.96 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.64 | 4.32 | 292 | 92 |
| Jack Mahoney R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .307 | 4.57 | 13.9% | 3.2% | 105 | +0.67 | 3.90 | 225 | 91 |
| James Hicks R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .338 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 61 | +0.12 | 3.67 | 167 | 91 |
| Will Ethridge R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.11 | 16.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | .274 | 5.50 | 14.6% | 2.8% | 129 | +1.39 | 3.57 | 227 | 91 |
| Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 91 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 91 |
| Colton Eastman R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.97 | 17.0% | 2.8% | 155 | +0.64 | 4.19 | 349 | 91 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 90 |
| Mason Adams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .315 | 3.76 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 120 | +0.10 | 3.66 | 229 | 90 |
| Blake Money R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .281 | 4.05 | 23.6% | 14.1% | 121 | +0.52 | 3.53 | 224 | 90 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 90 |
| Reid Johnston R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.74 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .297 | 5.02 | 19.5% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.28 | 3.74 | 204 | 90 |
| Seth Shuman R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.90 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | .297 | 4.45 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 109 | -0.45 | 3.67 | 306 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.6 | $16M | +$12M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.4 | $14M | +$8M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.2 | $13M | +$5M |
| Totals | $19M | $91M | +$71M | ||