Tzu-Chen Sha — OGILVIE

Tzu-Chen Sha P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%14.3%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	7	52	225	53	8	6	50%	3.7	16.4%	4.3%	12.1%	3.7%	4.53	4.29	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	7	52	225	53	8	6	50%	3.7	16.4%	4.3%	12.1%	3.7%	4.53	4.29	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	7	52	225	53	8	6	50%	3.7	23.6%	3.6%	20.0%	2.7%	4.53	3.02	—
2024	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	12	85	390	64	27	20	50%	3.6	12.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.7%	6.33	6.25	—
2024	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	12	85	390	64	27	20	50%	3.6	12.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.7%	6.33	6.25	—
2024	20	A RAW	Stockton Ports	24	12	85	390	64	27	20	50%	3.6	16.4%	6.9%	9.5%	5.1%	6.33	5.60	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	100	427	87	30	8	71%	4.2	15.3%	8.1%	7.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.21	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	100	427	87	30	8	71%	4.2	15.3%	8.1%	7.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.21	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	100	427	87	30	8	71%	4.2	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	1.9%	4.15	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	25	11	72	334	56	23	12	44%	2.9	12.9%	7.9%	5.0%	4.5%	8.71	5.48	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	25	11	72	334	56	23	12	44%	2.9	12.9%	7.9%	5.0%	4.5%	8.71	5.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	OAK	25	11	72	334	56	23	12	44%	2.9	16.8%	6.9%	9.9%	3.6%	8.71	4.53	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	OAK	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	14.3%	6.7%	7.6%	3.2%	4.87	4.87	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	78	359	60	25	13	—	—	16.6%	6.9%	9.7%	3.6%	8.42	5.43	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	93	393	66	25	12	100%	6.6	16.9%	6.5%	10.4%	3.1%	4.68	4.59	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	95	403	74	25	12	100%	6.4	18.5%	6.3%	12.1%	3.1%	4.51	4.42	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	97	408	79	26	13	100%	6.4	19.4%	6.3%	13.2%	3.1%	4.39	4.32	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	97	408	81	26	13	100%	6.4	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	3.1%	4.32	4.27	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	95	402	80	25	13	100%	6.3	20.0%	6.3%	13.6%	3.1%	4.31	4.31	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	92	390	77	25	13	100%	6.6	19.8%	6.5%	13.3%	3.2%	4.36	4.39	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	88	372	73	25	13	100%	6.3	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	3.4%	4.46	4.52	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	83	350	67	25	12	100%	6.4	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	3.6%	4.61	4.70	+0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	77	326	68	21	12	100%	6.4	20.8%	6.6%	14.3%	3.8%	4.62	4.63	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	71	301	61	21	12	100%	6.5	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	4.0%	4.76	4.86	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	46	194	33	13	6	100%	6.6	16.9%	6.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.64	4.55	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	67	283	52	18	9	100%	6.7	18.5%	6.3%	12.1%	3.0%	4.47	4.38	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	78	329	64	21	10	100%	6.5	19.4%	6.3%	13.2%	3.0%	4.35	4.28	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	84	355	71	22	11	100%	6.5	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	3.0%	4.28	4.23	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	86	363	72	23	11	100%	6.6	20.0%	6.3%	13.6%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	85	359	71	23	11	100%	6.5	19.8%	6.5%	13.3%	3.1%	4.32	4.35	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	82	346	68	23	11	100%	6.3	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	3.3%	4.41	4.47	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	78	329	63	23	11	100%	6.5	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.56	4.65	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	73	308	64	20	11	100%	6.6	20.8%	6.6%	14.3%	3.7%	4.57	4.58	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	68	287	59	20	11	100%	6.2	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.9%	4.70	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	116	747	3155	618	206	103	100%	6.4	19.6%	6.5%	13.0%	3.3%	4.44	4.06	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	165	55	28	100%	6.5	19.6%	6.5%	13.0%	3.3%	4.44	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		87	47	309	1376	193	103	56	54%	3.6	14.0%	7.5%	6.5%	4.1%	5.88	5.11	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	30	200	891	125	66	36	54%	3.6	14.0%	7.5%	6.5%	4.1%	5.88	5.11	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tzu-Chen Sha (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	14.3%	6.7%	3.2%	—	4.44	18.3%	11.9%	285	-0.43	—	—	—
Mike Paredes R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	13.8%	5.6%	4.2%	.282	3.52	17.5%	10.2%	230	-1.44	2.86	399	89
Austin Pettibone R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	10.9%	4.8%	2.2%	.296	5.11	14.6%	-1.6%	64	+1.12	3.99	142	86
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	86
Joe DeMers R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	13.6%	4.9%	3.5%	.329	3.98	10.6%	3.7%	72	-0.49	3.49	167	85
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	85
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	84
Joshua Torres R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	21	SW	4.47	12.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.308	2.63	23.4%	15.2%	108	-1.84	2.14	217	84
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	84
Steven Farnworth R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	10.2%	5.7%	2.9%	.249	3.78	9.6%	4.4%	20	-0.78	3.78	115	83
Yair Lozoya R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	9.6%	6.5%	2.5%	.288	5.51	10.6%	4.8%	45	+1.05	4.46	172	83
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	83
Kevin Miranda R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP-	3.76	11.5%	5.7%	1.7%	.293	5.48	13.4%	5.0%	67	+1.72	3.76	153	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	83
Colton Hock R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	22	SW	4.60	14.6%	6.1%	3.6%	.304	3.53	18.8%	10.5%	102	-1.07	3.29	253	83
Nick Davila R 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.04	17.2%	11.0%	196	+0.16	3.51	368	82
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	82
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	82
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	82
Tommy Parsons R 2018 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	12.6%	5.4%	4.2%	.302	5.28	18.0%	12.5%	234	+0.24	4.82	501	82
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	87	19.0%	6.5%	1.28	4.52
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61