Tzu-Chen Sha
P
Lansing Lugnuts
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 165 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.92
FIP4.92
K%14.3%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%7.2%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 7 | 52 | 225 | 53 | 8 | 6 | 50% | 3.7 | 16.4% | 4.3% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 4.53 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 7 | 52 | 225 | 53 | 8 | 6 | 50% | 3.7 | 23.6% | 3.6% | 20.0% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 3.02 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 24 | 12 | 85 | 390 | 64 | 27 | 20 | 50% | 3.6 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.33 | 5.86 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 24 | 12 | 85 | 390 | 64 | 27 | 20 | 50% | 3.6 | 16.4% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 6.33 | 5.60 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 17 | 100 | 427 | 87 | 30 | 8 | 71% | 4.2 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 17 | 100 | 427 | 87 | 30 | 8 | 71% | 4.2 | 20.4% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 1.9% | 4.15 | 3.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 16 | 11 | 56 | 264 | 38 | 17 | 11 | 69% | 3.5 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 9.38 | 5.96 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 66 | 277 | 40 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.88 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 121 | 541 | 78 | 37 | 20 | — | — | 14.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 6.97 | 5.40 | +0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 72 | 306 | 52 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 58 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 75 | 317 | 62 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.6% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 75 | 317 | 64 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 63 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.1% | 6.9% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 72 | 303 | 61 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 57 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.8% | 7.3% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 64 | 272 | 53 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 48 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 4.85 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | OAK | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 26 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 41 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 51 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 56 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 57 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 6.9% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 56 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 53 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 7.3% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 49 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 46 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 89 | 89 | 529 | 2233 | 434 | 160 | 71 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.12 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 61 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 47 | 292 | 1306 | 179 | 96 | 53 | 60% | 3.7 | 13.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.85 | 5.12 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 32 | 200 | 894 | 122 | 66 | 37 | 60% | 3.7 | 13.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.85 | 5.12 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tzu-Chen Sha (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.49 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 222 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Parsons R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 12.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | .302 | 5.20 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 234 | +0.16 | 4.61 | 501 | 86 |
| Nick Payero R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 86 |
| Joe DeMers R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | .329 | 4.04 | 10.6% | 3.7% | 72 | -0.41 | 3.49 | 167 | 86 |
| Kyle Scott R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.46 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 3.93 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.53 | 3.93 | 138 | 85 |
| Mike Paredes R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.96 | 13.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | .282 | 3.51 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 230 | -1.45 | 2.89 | 394 | 85 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.83 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 135 | -1.08 | 3.22 | 218 | 85 |
| Lucas Long R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.11 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | .300 | 3.83 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 386 | -1.28 | 3.42 | 441 | 85 |
| Jason Doktorczyk R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.33 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 4.6% | .293 | 5.77 | 13.5% | 1.8% | 38 | +0.44 | 5.33 | 124 | 84 |
| Adam Oller R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.86 | 13.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | .322 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 160 | -0.45 | 3.41 | 670 | 84 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 84 |
| Yair Lozoya R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 9.6% | 6.5% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.95 | 10.6% | 4.8% | 45 | +1.54 | 4.41 | 172 | 84 |
| Holden Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.37 | 14.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .370 | 4.86 | 15.8% | 4.8% | 63 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 114 | 84 |
| Matt Peacock R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 84 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 84 |
| Austin Pettibone R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.80 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% | .296 | 4.94 | 14.6% | -1.6% | 64 | +1.14 | 3.80 | 142 | 84 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 84 |
| Nick Krauth R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .297 | 4.74 | 12.5% | 2.5% | 232 | +0.26 | 4.44 | 424 | 84 |
| Nick Dean R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 84 |
| Luke Young R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.47 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .284 | 5.07 | 16.0% | 3.9% | 96 | -0.40 | 4.42 | 288 | 83 |
| Logan Martin R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.93 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 121 | +0.54 | 3.93 | 223 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 71 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |