Luke Young — OGILVIE

Luke Young P Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%13.5%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%2.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	26	15	94	403	107	39	15	58%	3.6	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	5.3%	4.40	5.78	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	26	15	94	403	107	39	15	58%	3.6	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	5.3%	4.40	5.78	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	26	15	94	403	107	39	15	58%	3.6	26.6%	9.7%	16.9%	3.7%	4.40	4.14	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	16	98	411	73	31	15	57%	3.5	13.7%	8.7%	5.0%	4.5%	4.58	5.51	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	16	98	411	73	31	15	57%	3.5	13.7%	8.7%	5.0%	4.5%	4.58	5.51	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	16	98	411	73	31	15	57%	3.5	17.8%	7.5%	10.2%	3.6%	4.58	4.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	56	248	45	25	9	0%	1.2	14.9%	10.6%	4.3%	4.2%	4.63	5.47	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	56	248	45	25	9	0%	1.2	14.9%	10.6%	4.3%	4.2%	4.63	5.47	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	56	248	45	25	9	0%	1.2	18.1%	10.1%	8.1%	3.6%	4.63	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	53	0	61	261	60	35	6	0%	1.2	18.8%	13.4%	5.3%	2.7%	2.93	4.69	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	53	0	61	261	60	35	6	0%	1.2	18.8%	13.4%	5.3%	2.7%	2.93	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	WSH	30	0	36	145	43	18	4	0%	1.2	29.7%	12.4%	17.2%	2.8%	2.27	3.68	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	WSH	23	0	26	116	17	17	2	0%	1.1	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	1.7%	3.86	4.67	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	22	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.5%	11.0%	2.5%	3.5%	5.64	5.64	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	67	283	63	37	7	—	—	22.2%	13.2%	9.0%	2.4%	3.15	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	85	0	90	378	58	39	13	0%	1.1	15.3%	10.4%	5.0%	3.4%	5.42	5.37	-0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	85	0	90	378	62	38	13	0%	1.1	16.4%	10.2%	6.3%	3.4%	5.27	5.23	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	84	0	88	373	62	38	13	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.1%	6.6%	3.4%	5.22	5.22	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	82	0	86	362	61	37	13	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	3.5%	5.25	5.28	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	78	0	82	345	57	36	13	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.4%	6.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.41	-0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	73	0	77	325	59	32	12	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.9%	8.2%	3.8%	5.33	5.32	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	37	0	39	165	25	17	6	0%	1.1	15.3%	10.4%	5.0%	3.4%	5.42	5.37	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	57	0	60	253	42	26	9	0%	1.1	16.4%	10.2%	6.3%	3.4%	5.27	5.23	-0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	66	0	69	291	49	29	10	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.1%	6.6%	3.4%	5.22	5.22	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	69	0	72	304	51	31	11	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	3.5%	5.25	5.28	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	69	0	72	304	50	32	11	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.4%	6.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.41	-0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	66	0	69	291	53	29	11	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.9%	8.2%	3.8%	5.33	5.32	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		363	0	381	1608	269	164	57	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.2%	6.6%	3.5%	5.30	4.92	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	141	86	30	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.2%	6.6%	3.5%	5.30	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		154	31	310	1323	221	143	57	20%	2.0	16.7%	10.8%	5.9%	4.3%	4.21	5.42	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	20	200	854	143	92	37	20%	2.0	16.7%	10.8%	5.9%	4.3%	4.21	5.42	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Young (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	13.5%	11.0%	3.5%	—	5.27	16.2%	5.9%	268	-0.37	—	—	—
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	88
Troy Neiman R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.287	4.47	19.7%	11.7%	135	-0.07	4.03	199	87
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	86
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	86
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	86
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	85
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	85
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	85
Robbie Aviles R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	24	SU	4.69	11.5%	8.7%	2.6%	.343	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	58	-1.06	3.63	172	85
Aaron Cohn R 2023 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	11.1%	10.7%	4.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.72	106	85
John Kuchno R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	24	SU	5.44	8.9%	8.7%	3.6%	.247	5.14	10.2%	1.6%	84	-0.30	2.43	162	84
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	84
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	84
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	84
J.B. Olson R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	24	SU	4.98	15.0%	11.1%	3.2%	.328	4.29	15.1%	7.5%	109	-0.69	3.90	212	84
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	83
Jacinto Arredondo R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	15.7%	10.7%	3.2%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	4.89	101	83
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	83
Taylor Lewis R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	15.4%	11.7%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	2.47	142	83
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	83	16.2%	10.3%	1.36	5.34
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10