Luke Young
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 128
ERA5.67
FIP5.67
K%13.5%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%2.4%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 26 | 15 | 94 | 403 | 107 | 39 | 15 | 58% | 3.6 | 19.6% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.40 | 6.07 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 26 | 15 | 94 | 403 | 107 | 39 | 15 | 58% | 3.6 | 26.6% | 9.7% | 16.9% | 3.7% | 4.40 | 4.14 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 16 | 98 | 411 | 73 | 31 | 15 | 57% | 3.5 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.58 | 5.47 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 16 | 98 | 411 | 73 | 31 | 15 | 57% | 3.5 | 17.8% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.54 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 56 | 248 | 45 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.9% | 10.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.63 | 5.56 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 56 | 248 | 45 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 35 | 0 | 42 | 183 | 38 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.4% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 3.24 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 38 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.5% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.67 | 5.67 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.5% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.67 | 5.67 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 109 | 467 | 76 | 55 | 13 | — | — | 16.3% | 11.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 7 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 13.5% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.67 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 44 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.45 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 48 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.31 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.45 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 33 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.31 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 83 | 0 | 87 | 366 | 58 | 39 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.39 | 4.97 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 134 | 90 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.9% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.39 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 31 | 290 | 1245 | 204 | 134 | 56 | 23% | 2.1 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.34 | 5.53 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 21 | 200 | 858 | 141 | 92 | 38 | 23% | 2.1 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.34 | 5.53 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Young (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.67 | 13.5% | 11.1% | 3.5% | — | 5.33 | 16.0% | 5.5% | 136 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Mark Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.15 | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .277 | 4.72 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 112 | -0.43 | 4.62 | 185 | 88 |
| Zach Nuding R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 87 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.93 | 13.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.60 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 135 | -0.33 | 3.84 | 199 | 87 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 86 |
| David Reid-Foley R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 6.53 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 33 | +1.64 | 4.89 | 110 | 86 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 86 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 85 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.00 | 14.2% | 11.7% | 4.8% | .284 | 5.40 | 9.9% | -2.2% | 16 | -0.60 | 3.89 | 110 | 85 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 85 |
| Cade Denton R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.96 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 127 | 85 |
| Matthew Gorst R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 16.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 199 | 85 |
| Robbie Aviles R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.77 | 11.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .343 | 3.62 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 58 | -1.15 | 3.62 | 172 | 85 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.74 | 4.02 | 141 | 84 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 2.4% | .284 | 3.85 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.24 | 172 | 84 |
| James Pugliese R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.90 | 12.5% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .226 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 218 | 84 |
| Aaron Cohn R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.87 | 11.1% | 10.7% | 4.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.72 | 106 | 83 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2027 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 83 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 83 |
| John Kuchno R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.66 | 8.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .247 | 5.21 | 10.2% | 1.6% | 84 | -0.45 | 2.43 | 162 | 83 |
| Jake Johansen R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 15.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | .351 | 4.21 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 114 | -1.38 | 3.69 | 162 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 15.2% | 10.7% | 1.34 | 5.48 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |