Luke Young

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+WSH	28	16	98	4.58	4.54	17.8%	7.5%	—	K 13.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 5.51
2025	23	MIX2 levels	47	0	56	4.63	4.91	18.1%	10.1%	—	K 14.9% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.47
2026	24	MIX2 levels	53	0	61	2.93	4.13	23.0%	13.4%	—	K 18.9% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.68
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	1	0	1	5.50	5.50	15.1%	12.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBWSH	21	0	22	5.35	5.33	16.5%	12.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	26	0	27	5.29	5.29	17.0%	12.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsStephen Johnson (age 25) · Juan Paniagua (age 25) · Aaron Northcraft (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%15.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%2.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	26	15	94	403	107	39	15	58%	3.6	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	5.3%	4.40	5.78	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	26	15	94	403	107	39	15	58%	3.6	26.6%	9.7%	16.9%	3.7%	4.40	4.14	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	16	98	411	73	31	15	57%	3.5	13.7%	8.7%	5.0%	4.5%	4.58	5.51	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	16	98	411	73	31	15	57%	3.5	13.7%	8.7%	5.0%	4.5%	4.58	5.51	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	16	98	411	73	31	15	57%	3.5	17.8%	7.5%	10.2%	3.6%	4.58	4.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	56	248	45	25	9	0%	1.2	14.9%	10.6%	4.3%	4.2%	4.63	5.47	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	56	248	45	25	9	0%	1.2	14.9%	10.6%	4.3%	4.2%	4.63	5.47	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	56	248	45	25	9	0%	1.2	18.1%	10.1%	8.1%	3.6%	4.63	4.91	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	61	261	60	35	6	0%	1.2	18.9%	13.4%	5.5%	2.7%	2.93	4.68	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	61	261	60	35	6	0%	1.2	18.9%	13.4%	5.5%	2.7%	2.93	4.68	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	61	261	60	35	6	0%	1.2	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.3%	2.93	4.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	15.1%	12.8%	2.2%	3.0%	5.50	5.50	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	48	0	51	214	35	27	6	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.4%	4.1%	3.0%	5.35	5.33	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	41	0	43	183	31	22	6	0%	1.1	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	3.1%	5.29	5.29	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	38	0	40	168	29	21	5	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.2%	5.29	5.33	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	35	0	37	155	26	19	5	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.4%	4.7%	3.3%	5.37	5.43	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	21	0	22	93	15	12	3	0%	1.0	16.5%	12.4%	4.1%	3.0%	5.35	5.33	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	26	0	27	114	19	14	4	0%	1.0	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	3.1%	5.29	5.29	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	29	0	30	127	22	16	4	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.2%	5.29	5.33	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	29	0	30	127	22	16	4	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.4%	4.7%	3.3%	5.37	5.43	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	109	462	79	57	15	0%	1.1	17.0%	12.4%	4.6%	3.2%	5.32	4.97	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	104	27	0%	1.0	17.0%	12.4%	4.6%	3.2%	5.32	4.97	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		154	31	310	1323	222	143	57	20%	2.0	16.8%	10.8%	6.0%	4.3%	4.21	5.42	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	20	200	854	143	92	37	20%	2.0	16.8%	10.8%	6.0%	4.3%	4.21	5.42	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 36 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.62 (+0.94)K% 29.7% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.66%	—	×0.810	24.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.41%	—	×1.100	13.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 26 IPFIP 4.67 → 4.75 (+0.08)K% 14.7% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.66%	—	×0.860	12.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.66%	—	×0.900	13.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.67 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 54 IPFIP 4.60 → 5.47 (+0.87)K% 18.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.41%	—	×0.810	14.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.100	10.59%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷0.963	×1.200	4.17%

Result: FIP 4.60 → 5.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 98 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.51 (+0.95)K% 17.8% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.76%	—	×0.770	13.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.54%	—	×1.150	8.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.65%	÷1.016	×1.250	4.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 94 IPFIP 4.13 → 5.78 (+1.66)K% 26.6% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.55%	—	×0.740	19.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.180	11.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.72%	÷0.917	×1.300	5.28%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Young (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	15.1%	12.8%	3.0%	—	5.32	16.9%	4.5%	134	-0.18	—	—	—
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	89
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	87
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	86
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Dillon McNamara R 2017 · 5.01 FIP	25	SW	5.01	13.3%	11.1%	3.0%	.229	3.00	21.2%	12.3%	69	-2.01	1.73	244	85
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	85
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	84
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	84
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	84
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	83
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.01	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.43	4.58	113	83
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	83
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	83
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	83
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	82
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	82
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	82
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	82
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	48	16.4%	12.5%	1.21	5.38
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*