Merphy Hernandez

OF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 20 L/L 5'11" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2364ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKMIN190.276/.396/.41723645—.165/.267/.232
202518ROKMIN54.163/.333/.2560818—.109/.241/.174
202619A/ROKMIN278.267/.378/.38655774—.223/.313/.322
2027PROJMLE20MLBMIN388.209/.282/.30751668-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBMIN77.214/.289/.3221374-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBMIN161.218/.293/.3333778-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed97
Max EV63
K%60
Whiff%60
Z-Con%52
BB%38
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 2.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%
CompsCarlos Jorge (age 19) · Jonatan Clase (age 20) · Billy Hamilton (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 166 proj PA
wRC+†68
AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .280 / .304
PA166
HR2
SB7
K%26
BB%8
ISO98
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +1.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +3.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT34
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE53
scouting grade only
SPEED80
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2035Arb-1$0.4M———
2036Arb-2$0.4M———
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.6M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Twins — 190156 43462 28303 362 276396417812 141323 1615 362 45 — — — — — —
202518 ROKFCL Twins — 5443 7210 8133 85 163333256589 93233 2415 289 18 — — — — — —
202619 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 242210 56724 25577 5111 267364376740 110349 2410 339 71 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Twins — 3626 7011 961 60 269472462934 192316 1725 423 92 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 190164 27231 20373 362 165267232499 67201 1911 235 45 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 5446 5110 5193 85 109241174415 65181 359 195 18 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 242217 49623 18777 5111 226306313619 88332 327 273 71 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 3629 6011 691 60 207361379740 172249 2517 304 92 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 190164 27231 20373 362 165267232499 67202 1911 235 45 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Twins — 190156 43462 28303 362 276396417812 141323 1615 362 45 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 5446 5110 5193 85 109241174415 65185 359 195 18 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWFCL Twins — 5443 7210 8133 85 163333256589 93233 2415 289 18 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 278247 56634 23868 5711 227313324637 97331 318 277 74 — — — — — —
202619 A RAW2 teams — 278236 63735 34638 5711 267378386763 119345 2312 350 74 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 190165 27231 20373 362 164267230498 67201 1911 235 45 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 5446 5110 5193 85 109241174415 65181 359 195 18 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 278245 56634 23868 5711 229313327639 98321 318 277 74 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 190165 27231 20373 362 164267230498 67201 1911 235 45 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 5446 5110 5193 85 109241174415 65181 359 195 18 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 278245 56634 23868 5711 229313327639 98321 318 277 74 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEMIN 0% 388349 731335 30996 163 209282307589 98272 268 269 68 -15 +2 +0 -2 +8 -0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEMIN 34% 224201 43724 18563 92 214288322610 108274 258 277 74 -7 +1 +0 -1 +5 -0.3
202922 MLB MLEMIN 48% 332297 641126 27825 143 218293333626 115276 258 283 78 -9 +2 +0 -2 +7 -0.2
203023 MLB MLEMIN 54% 404362 801438 33996 174 221296341637 120277 258 288 81 -9 +2 +0 -2 +9 -0.1
203124 MLB MLEMIN 55% 452405 901639 371097 194 223298347645 124279 248 291 83 -9 +2 +0 -3 +10 0.0
203225 MLB MLEMIN 56% 477428 9617310 391157 205 224300351651 127280 248 293 85 -9 +2 +0 -3 +10 0.1
203326 MLB MLEMIN 56% 490440 9817311 401187 205 224300351650 126279 248 293 84 -9 +2 +0 -3 +11 0.1
203427 MLB MLEMIN 55% 494443 9917311 411207 205 223299348646 125279 248 292 83 -10 +2 +0 -3 +11 -0.0
203528 MLB MLEMIN 55% 489439 9717310 401197 184 221297343640 122278 248 289 82 -11 +2 -1 -3 +11 -0.2
203629 MLB MLEMIN 53% 479430 9416310 391187 154 219294337630 118276 258 285 79 -12 +1 -1 -3 +10 -0.5
202821 MLB CTXMIN 34% 7770 15311 6191 31 214289322611 109274 258 277 74 -2 +0 +0 -0 +2 -0.1
202922 MLB CTXMIN 48% 161145 31513 13402 72 218293333626 116276 258 283 78 -4 +1 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
203023 MLB CTXMIN 54% 219196 43814 18533 92 221296341637 121277 248 288 81 -5 +1 +0 -1 +5 -0.1
203124 MLB CTXMIN 55% 251225 50925 20614 112 223298347646 124279 248 291 83 -5 +1 +0 -2 +5 0.0
203225 MLB CTXMIN 56% 267239 54926 22644 113 225300352651 127280 248 293 85 -5 +1 +0 -2 +6 0.0
203326 MLB CTXMIN 56% 276247 561026 23664 123 224300351651 127279 248 293 84 -5 +1 +0 -2 +6 0.0
203427 MLB CTXMIN 55% 273245 551026 22664 113 223299348647 125279 248 292 83 -5 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.0
203528 MLB CTXMIN 55% 268240 54926 22654 102 221297344640 122278 248 289 82 -6 +1 -0 -2 +6 -0.1
203629 MLB CTXMIN 53% 256229 51925 21634 82 219294337631 118276 258 285 79 -6 +1 -1 -2 +6 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 20481836 409721542 16749730 8220 223298347645 124281 248 289 78 -44 +8 -1 -12 +44 -0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650583 13023513 5315810 266 223299346646 123282 248 289 78 -14 +3 -0 -4 +14 -0.2
Career— MLE — 45294051 8791463386 375112073 26055 217295333628 116277 258 284 78 -91 +17 -2 -24 +87 -1.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650581 12621512 5416110 378 217294332626 115277 258 284 78 -15 +3 -0 -4 +14 -0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 242 PAwOBA .331 → .273 (−58)K% 23.6% → 32.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.55%÷1.000×1.360——32.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.33%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0307.34%
HBP% /PA2.89%—×0.780—×1.0302.32%
Singles /BIP28.10%÷1.000×0.920×1.022×1.03027.22%
Doubles /BIP4.58%÷1.000×0.830×1.022×1.0304.00%
Triples /BIP1.31%÷1.000×0.910×1.022×1.0301.25%
Home runs /BIP2.61%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0302.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .331 → .273; ISO .110 → .087; BABIP .349 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 36 PAwOBA .414 → .304 (−110)K% 16.7% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.000×1.440——24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA25.00%÷1.000×0.620—×0.99515.42%
HBP% /PA2.78%—×0.720—×0.9951.99%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.000×0.820—×0.99520.40%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Triples /BIP5.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9953.58%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9953.88%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .414 → .304; ISO .192 → .153; BABIP .316 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Twins · 54 PAwOBA .283 → .195 (−88)K% 24.1% → 34.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.07%÷0.998×1.440——34.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.81%÷0.981×0.620—×1.0089.44%
HBP% /PA5.56%—×0.720—×1.0084.03%
Singles /BIP13.33%÷1.028×0.820—×1.00810.71%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷0.979×0.720—×1.0084.94%
Triples /BIP3.33%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0082.42%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.006×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .283 → .195; ISO .093 → .064; BABIP .233 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Twins · 190 PAwOBA .359 → .235 (−124)K% 15.8% → 19.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.79%÷1.000×1.220——19.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.74%÷1.010×0.700—×1.00810.30%
HBP% /PA1.58%—×0.700—×1.0081.11%
Singles /BIP24.60%÷1.038×0.680×0.985×1.00816.00%
Doubles /BIP3.17%÷1.006×0.600×0.985×1.0081.88%
Triples /BIP4.76%÷1.115×0.600×0.985×1.0082.54%
Home runs /BIP1.59%÷0.939×0.470—×1.0080.80%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 123, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .359 → .235; ISO .141 → .079; BABIP .323 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).