Merphy Hernandez

Merphy HernandezOF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 19 L/L 5'11" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION166 act + 110 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .283 / .276

PA110

HR1

SB9

K%30

BB%9

BABIP278

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED80

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	190	167	33	3	4	2	17	43	3	36	2	198	283	299	583	102	248	23	9	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	190	156	43	4	6	2	28	30	3	36	2	276	396	417	812	141	323	16	15	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	54	46	5	1	1	0	5	19	3	8	5	109	241	174	415	65	185	35	9	193	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	54	43	7	2	1	0	8	13	3	8	5	163	333	256	589	93	233	24	15	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	MIN	—	166	144	25	2	1	2	16	57	6	31	5	174	283	243	526	69	271	34	10	252	51	-9	+4	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
YTD	19	A	MIN	—	166	137	32	2	2	3	23	40	6	31	5	234	367	343	711	109	309	24	14	332	112	+2	+4	+0	-1	+5	1.0
ROS	19	A	MIN	0%	110	97	19	3	1	1	10	33	2	9	1	195	283	276	559	82	276	30	9	263	60	-5	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
ROS	19	MLB	MIN	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		276	—	—	248	48	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	A	MIN	—	166	145	25	2	1	2	16	57	6	31	5	172	283	241	525	69	267	34	10	252	51	-9	+4	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
TOT	19	A	MIN	—	276	241	44	5	2	3	26	90	8	40	6	182	283	257	540	74	274	33	9	256	54	-14	+6	+0	-2	+8	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	MIN	34%	289	256	53	8	2	5	25	83	6	15	3	207	293	312	605	105	282	29	9	278	71	-10	+2	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	MIN	48%	402	355	76	12	3	8	36	112	8	21	4	214	301	332	633	118	284	28	9	285	77	-11	+3	+0	-2	+11	0.1
2029	22	MLB	MIN	54%	476	422	91	14	4	10	42	130	9	25	4	216	300	339	639	123	285	27	9	290	80	-11	+3	+0	-3	+13	0.4
2030	23	MLB	MIN	57%	524	462	101	16	4	11	47	142	10	27	5	219	304	342	646	123	286	27	9	293	83	-10	+3	+0	-3	+15	0.5
2031	24	MLB	MIN	57%	553	487	107	17	4	12	50	149	11	29	5	220	307	345	652	125	287	27	9	295	84	-10	+4	+0	-3	+16	0.6
2032	25	MLB	MIN	57%	570	503	110	17	4	13	51	153	11	29	5	219	304	346	650	127	287	27	9	296	85	-10	+4	+0	-3	+16	0.7
2033	26	MLB	MIN	56%	577	509	112	18	4	13	52	155	11	30	5	220	306	348	654	128	287	27	9	296	85	-10	+4	+0	-3	+16	0.7
2027	20	MLB	MIN	34%	99	88	19	3	1	2	9	28	2	5	1	216	303	341	644	125	282	28	9	263	60	-5	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	MIN	48%	195	172	38	6	2	4	17	54	4	10	2	221	306	349	655	128	284	28	9	271	66	-8	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.2
2029	22	MLB	MIN	54%	258	228	49	8	2	5	23	71	5	13	2	215	301	333	634	118	285	28	9	276	70	-9	+2	+0	-2	+7	-0.1
2030	23	MLB	MIN	57%	297	262	57	9	2	6	27	80	6	15	3	218	305	336	641	118	286	27	9	280	72	-9	+2	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2031	24	MLB	MIN	57%	313	276	61	10	2	7	28	84	6	16	3	221	306	348	654	127	287	27	9	281	73	-9	+2	+0	-2	+9	-0.0
2032	25	MLB	MIN	57%	322	284	62	10	2	7	29	87	6	17	3	218	304	342	646	123	287	27	9	282	74	-9	+2	+0	-2	+9	-0.0
2033	26	MLB	MIN	56%	326	287	63	10	2	7	30	88	6	17	3	220	307	341	648	122	287	27	9	282	74	-9	+2	+0	-2	+9	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1810	1598	349	56	13	38	163	492	35	93	17	218	305	341	646	123	289	27	9	279	71	-59	+12	+0	-11	+51	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	126	20	5	14	59	177	13	33	6	220	307	345	652	125	290	27	9	279	71	-21	+4	+0	-4	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	3745	3304	707	109	31	75	335	1019	74	229	39	214	301	334	634	120	283	27	9	288	78	-92	+30	+0	-22	+106	2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	122	19	5	13	58	177	13	40	7	213	300	332	631	119	282	27	9	288	78	-16	+5	+0	-4	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	190	156	43	4	6	2	28	30	3	36	2	276	396	417	812	141	323	16	15	362	135	+8	+6	—	—	+5	2.0
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	54	43	7	2	1	0	8	13	3	8	5	163	333	256	589	93	233	24	15	289	79	-1	-0	—	—	+2	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.7
	/162	664	4	56	245	312	332	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,923	40	97	218	300	341	-12	+0	1.4	1.5
	/162	664	14	34	218	300	341	-4.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Merphy Hernandez (OGILVIE)	19	35→40	34→39	78→80	57	182/283/257	74	274	3	40	33%	9%	54	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	49	39→45	60→65	52	227/313/330	103	311	4	16	26%	10%	83	+0.6	207/274/300	93	331	6	26	36%	7%	59	-1.1	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Carlos Jorge 2022 · A	18	49→46	41→45	63→60	47	232/299/349	117	311	6	24	26%	8%	82	+0.5	205/280/334	129	302	12	26	34%	8%	71	-0.3	209/271/302	94	301	8	33	31%	7%	55	-0.9
✕Luigi Rodriguez 2011 · A	18	47→48	39→50	61→55	49	223/288/322	98	282	4	23	22%	8%	69	-0.4	223/275/313	90	328	6	17	31%	6%	62	-0.9	220/261/367	147	345	19	15	40%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Kelvin Duran 2010 · A	19	45	39→45	60→55	43	213/262/308	95	277	5	19	24%	6%	55	-1.4	195/243/273	78	277	5	14	30%	6%	38	-2.6	153/197/199	46	226	5	15	33%	5%	-2	-1.2
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→49	37→45	60→50	41	210/271/293	83	300	4	18	30%	6%	56	-1.3	213/257/291	78	286	5	11	26%	4%	49	-1.8	254/306/422	168	324	18	9	26%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Ty Morrison 2011 · A	21	45→51	40	64→55	38	209/266/311	102	319	6	28	34%	6%	58	-1.2	229/277/309	80	325	3	22	29%	5%	62	-0.9	241/288/311	69	331	1	23	26%	4%	62	-0.7
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→38	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	69	-0.4	201/272/280	79	302	2	16	31%	8%	53	-1.5	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
●Billy Hamilton 2011 · A	20	44→54	37→40	62→70	39	207/251/284	77	292	3	28	29%	5%	43	-2.2	238/289/310	72	334	2	63	27%	7%	66	-0.6	249/300/336	88	321	4	80	22%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	57	-1.2	191/237/342	151	271	18	8	36%	5%	55	-1.4	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jose Escobar 2023 · A	18	45→47	44→45	58→45	40	222/270/345	124	286	10	15	26%	5%	69	-0.4	223/290/328	105	294	9	12	26%	6%	73	-0.1	233/300/341	108	308	10	8	26%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Franchy Cordero 2014 · A	19	46→54	39→55	58→50	39	212/265/300	88	325	5	13	35%	6%	54	-1.4	204/244/283	79	322	6	13	36%	4%	41	-2.3	228/298/387	159	318	18	12	32%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Telmito Agustin 2015 · A	18	47→41	41→45	59→50	48	221/296/336	114	295	5	18	25%	8%	77	+0.1	227/270/326	99	315	7	15	28%	5%	63	-0.8	226/258/333	106	321	10	12	32%	4%	57	-0.6
✕Tyler James 2018 · A	21	44	36→30	64→65	42	204/266/281	77	293	2	27	29%	7%	50	-1.7	220/283/294	74	332	4	27	32%	7%	61	-1.0	230/297/289	60	352	4	45	33%	8%	61	-0.4
✕Jorge Mateo 2014 · A	19	43→46	42→50	60→65	46	209/275/314	105	270	9	30	25%	8%	63	-0.8	209/260/303	94	293	6	36	29%	6%	53	-1.5	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Rochest Cruz 2019 · A	20	49	37→40	61→65	54	226/303/299	73	269	4	34	16%	9%	71	-0.3	206/274/271	65	290	3	23	28%	7%	52	-1.6	144/214/156	12	235	0	30	35%	6%	-5	-1.2
●Rey Fuentes 2011 · A	20	46→56	36→40	59→60	38	219/261/290	71	297	3	25	27%	4%	50	-1.8	223/271/306	83	318	6	27	30%	5%	59	-1.1	274/321/368	94	353	8	33	23%	5%	91	+0.8
✕Jodaneli Carvajal 2010 · A	18	43	38→30	62→55	43	207/259/290	83	274	4	20	25%	6%	50	-1.8	213/265/278	65	272	2	17	21%	6%	48	-1.9	212/263/268	56	267	2	18	20%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Jonatan Clase 2022 · A	20	45→47	41→55	59→65	44	211/283/309	99	307	8	26	32%	8%	66	-0.6	207/279/366	159	301	18	39	35%	8%	79	+0.3	205/278/368	164	287	19	47	34%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Alen Hanson 2012 · A	19	46→51	39→50	58→60	44	218/271/315	96	273	4	19	21%	6%	61	-1.0	232/280/372	140	293	11	20	24%	6%	79	+0.3	252/286/391	139	300	12	30	20%	4%	83	+0.4