Merphy Hernandez

Merphy HernandezOF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 19 L/L 5'11" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION278 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP293

ISO103

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED80

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	190	156	43	4	6	2	28	30	3	36	2	276	396	417	812	141	323	16	15	362	131	+7	+6	—	—	+4	1.8
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	54	43	7	2	1	0	8	13	3	8	5	163	333	256	589	93	233	24	15	289	82	-1	-0	—	—	+1	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	190	167	33	3	4	2	17	43	3	36	2	198	283	299	583	102	242	23	9	256	59	-9	+6	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	54	46	5	1	1	0	5	19	3	8	5	109	241	174	415	65	179	35	9	193	17	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	190	167	33	3	4	2	17	43	3	36	2	198	283	299	583	102	248	23	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	190	156	43	4	6	2	28	30	3	36	2	276	396	417	812	141	323	16	15	362	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	54	46	5	1	1	0	5	19	3	8	5	109	241	174	415	65	185	35	9	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	54	43	7	2	1	0	8	13	3	8	5	163	333	256	589	93	233	24	15	289	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	190	168	33	3	4	2	17	43	3	36	2	196	283	298	581	101	242	23	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	54	46	5	1	1	0	5	19	3	8	5	109	241	174	415	65	179	35	9	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	190	168	33	3	4	2	17	43	3	36	2	196	283	298	581	101	242	23	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	54	46	5	1	1	0	5	19	3	8	5	109	241	174	415	65	179	35	9	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A MLE	MIN	—	278	246	52	6	2	4	24	89	8	57	11	211	302	301	603	89	314	32	9	275	72	-9	+7	+0	-2	+6	0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	MIN	—	36	26	7	0	1	1	9	6	1	6	0	269	472	462	934	192	316	17	25	423	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A RAW	MIN	—	242	210	56	7	2	4	25	57	7	51	11	267	364	376	740	110	349	24	10	339	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A MLE	MIN	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	111	200	111	311		293	30	10	278	74	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	A MLE	MIN	—	288	255	53	6	2	4	25	92	8	58	11	208	299	294	593	86	308	32	9	275	72	-10	+7	+0	-2	+6	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	301	266	59	10	2	5	26	82	6	20	4	222	305	331	636	109	297	27	9	291	83	-6	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	411	365	83	14	3	8	35	109	8	27	5	227	309	348	657	121	297	27	9	298	88	-6	+3	+0	-2	+9	0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	483	429	98	16	3	11	42	126	9	31	6	228	310	357	667	128	297	26	9	303	91	-5	+4	+0	-3	+10	0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	528	467	109	18	4	12	46	136	10	34	7	233	315	366	682	133	298	26	9	306	93	-4	+4	+0	-3	+11	0.8
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	556	491	115	19	4	13	49	143	11	36	7	234	318	369	686	134	299	26	9	308	95	-4	+4	+0	-3	+12	1.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	572	505	119	20	4	14	51	146	11	37	8	236	319	374	693	139	299	26	9	309	95	-3	+4	+0	-3	+12	1.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	578	511	120	20	4	14	51	148	11	37	8	235	318	372	689	137	299	26	9	310	96	-3	+4	+0	-3	+13	1.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	578	510	120	20	4	14	52	148	11	37	8	235	319	373	692	137	298	26	9	310	96	-3	+4	+0	-3	+13	1.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	573	505	118	19	4	14	52	148	11	35	7	234	319	370	689	137	298	26	9	309	95	-3	+4	-1	-3	+12	0.9
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	563	495	115	19	4	13	52	146	11	32	7	232	319	366	685	133	297	26	9	307	94	-4	+4	-1	-3	+12	0.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	552	485	111	18	3	13	51	145	11	28	6	229	316	359	675	130	296	26	9	304	92	-5	+3	-2	-3	+12	0.4
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	538	474	107	17	3	12	49	143	10	24	5	226	311	350	662	124	293	27	9	300	89	-7	+3	-3	-3	+12	0.1
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	519	457	101	16	3	11	47	140	10	19	4	221	307	341	649	120	290	27	9	294	85	-9	+2	-4	-3	+11	-0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	103	91	20	3	1	2	9	28	2	7	1	220	304	341	645	121	297	27	9	276	83	-2	+1	+0	-1	+2	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	199	176	40	7	1	4	17	53	4	13	3	227	310	347	656	119	297	27	9	284	88	-3	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	262	232	54	9	2	6	23	68	5	17	3	233	315	366	682	134	298	26	9	289	91	-3	+2	+0	-2	+6	0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	299	265	61	10	2	7	26	77	6	19	4	230	313	362	675	132	298	26	9	292	93	-2	+2	+0	-2	+6	0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	314	277	65	11	2	7	28	81	6	20	4	235	318	365	683	130	299	26	9	294	95	-2	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	323	285	67	11	2	8	29	83	6	21	4	235	319	372	691	137	299	26	9	295	95	-2	+3	+0	-2	+7	0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	327	289	67	11	2	8	29	84	6	21	4	232	315	367	682	135	299	26	9	296	96	-2	+3	+0	-2	+7	0.6
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	320	282	66	11	2	8	29	82	6	21	4	234	319	372	691	138	299	26	9	296	96	-2	+3	+0	-2	+7	0.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	315	277	65	11	2	8	29	81	6	19	4	235	321	375	696	141	298	26	9	295	95	-2	+2	-0	-2	+7	0.5
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	301	264	61	10	2	7	28	78	6	17	3	231	319	364	682	133	297	26	9	293	94	-2	+2	-1	-2	+7	0.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	291	256	60	10	2	7	27	76	6	15	3	234	322	371	693	137	296	26	9	290	92	-3	+2	-1	-2	+6	0.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	281	248	56	9	2	6	26	75	5	13	3	226	312	351	663	125	293	27	9	286	89	-4	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	269	237	53	8	2	6	25	72	5	10	2	224	311	350	661	127	290	27	9	281	85	-5	+1	-2	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3604	3179	735	121	24	84	325	938	69	213	42	231	316	364	680	132	299	26	9	291	91	-32	+26	-6	-22	+78	4.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	132	22	4	15	59	169	12	38	8	230	315	361	676	131	298	26	9	291	91	-6	+5	-1	-4	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	7006	6182	1414	230	50	156	626	1825	136	442	89	229	313	358	671	129	297	26	9	302	91	-63	+47	-10	-41	+147	8.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	131	21	5	14	58	169	13	41	8	228	314	355	669	127	296	26	9	302	91	-6	+4	-1	-4	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Rajai Davislast yr '18 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,564 PA	6.9	4,564	61	414	263	311	380	-3	-25	10.5	10.3
/162	664	9	60	-0.4	-3.6	1.5	pk7: 10
#3Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#4Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.6	3,721	84	217	231	311	361	-22	+0	7.0	6.1
/162	664	15	39	-4.0	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 5
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Merphy Hernandez (OGILVIE)	19	36→41	35→40	80	56	212/293/309	97	293	2	12	28%	8%	74	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Jorge 2022 · A	18	49→45	42→45	63→60	46	232/298/352	119	309	6	24	26%	8%	84	+0.1	207/282/339	132	305	12	26	34%	8%	76	-0.4	183/259/311	128	278	13	29	36%	8%	60	-0.9
✕Luigi Rodriguez 2011 · A	18	47→49	39→50	61→55	49	223/288/322	98	282	4	23	22%	8%	73	-0.6	224/275/315	91	329	6	17	31%	6%	67	-1.1	223/264/357	134	340	16	15	38%	5%	71	-0.5
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	49	39→45	60→65	52	227/313/330	103	311	4	16	26%	10%	85	+0.2	205/272/294	89	330	6	26	36%	7%	61	-1.5	229/304/333	104	308	11	52	28%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Kelvin Duran 2010 · A	19	45	39→45	60→55	43	213/262/308	95	277	5	19	24%	6%	60	-1.6	195/243/273	78	277	5	14	30%	6%	45	-2.7	154/197/200	46	227	5	15	33%	5%	10	-1.2
✕Jorge Mateo 2014 · A	19	43→48	42→50	60→65	46	209/275/314	105	270	9	30	25%	8%	68	-1.0	211/263/305	94	295	6	36	28%	6%	60	-1.6	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→45	59→50	55	210/300/285	75	272	4	16	22%	11%	70	-0.8	230/288/322	92	306	6	11	25%	7%	74	-0.6	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→41	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	72	-0.7	202/272/280	78	301	2	16	31%	8%	58	-1.7	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Rey Fuentes 2011 · A	20	47→57	37→40	59→60	38	222/263/297	75	301	4	25	27%	4%	58	-1.7	228/277/308	80	319	5	27	28%	5%	66	-1.1	275/323/366	91	351	7	33	22%	6%	93	+0.6
●Danny Santana 2010 · A	19	42→52	39→55	59→55	41	205/247/303	97	262	5	15	24%	5%	53	-2.1	211/247/304	93	292	7	15	29%	4%	53	-2.1	240/285/441	201	301	25	22	29%	5%	97	+0.7
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/290/330	103	300	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	222/274/319	97	291	7	16	25%	6%	68	-1.0	253/326/354	101	349	8	50	27%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Rochest Cruz 2019 · A	20	49	37→40	61→65	54	226/303/299	73	269	4	34	16%	9%	74	-0.5	206/274/271	65	290	3	23	28%	7%	57	-1.8	144/214/156	12	235	0	30	35%	6%	7	-1.1
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	46→54	43→50	61→55	45	223/282/346	122	298	9	28	27%	7%	77	-0.3	240/293/371	131	287	13	16	20%	7%	87	+0.4	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Franchy Cordero 2014 · A	19	46→54	39→55	58→50	39	212/265/300	88	325	5	13	35%	6%	59	-1.6	207/248/285	78	324	5	13	36%	4%	49	-2.4	243/285/405	162	362	14	17	35%	5%	88	+0.4
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	45→46	41→55	57→55	43	217/275/321	104	306	8	21	30%	7%	69	-0.9	208/280/300	92	300	8	18	31%	9%	66	-1.1	203/297/373	170	273	21	23	32%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→52	37→45	60→50	41	210/271/293	83	300	4	18	30%	6%	61	-1.5	213/257/291	78	285	5	11	26%	4%	54	-2.0	254/306/422	167	324	18	9	26%	6%	98	+0.5
✕Telmito Agustin 2015 · A	18	47→42	41→45	59→50	48	221/296/336	114	295	5	18	25%	8%	80	-0.2	226/269/325	99	313	7	15	28%	5%	66	-1.1	224/256/331	107	318	10	12	32%	4%	61	-0.8
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	43→50	56→55	47	203/279/323	120	288	8	13	30%	9%	71	-0.8	213/282/343	130	314	11	16	33%	9%	76	-0.4	236/319/383	147	308	15	24	26%	11%	96	+0.7
✕Rafael Ortega 2010 · A	19	51→54	35→50	58→55	49	234/281/296	62	267	2	24	13%	6%	64	-1.3	241/280/334	93	298	7	20	20%	5%	72	-0.7	239/312/392	154	285	17	17	22%	9%	96	+0.8
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	40→49	38→45	59→55	46	192/267/282	90	275	4	17	30%	8%	57	-1.8	216/291/301	85	288	6	17	25%	9%	70	-0.8	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Billy Hamilton 2011 · A	20	44→54	37→40	62→70	39	207/251/284	77	292	3	28	29%	5%	50	-2.3	236/288/308	72	330	2	63	27%	7%	70	-0.9	241/300/326	84	310	4	55	22%	8%	76	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps